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Money and Prices Under Uncertainty

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  • Tomoyuki Nakajima
  • Herakles Polemarchakis

Abstract

We study whether monetary economies display nominal indeterminacy: equivalently, whether monetary policy determines the path of prices under uncertainty. In a simple, stochastic, cash-in-advance economy, we find that indeterminacy arises and is characterized by the initial price level and a probability measure associated with state-contingent nominal bonds: equivalently, monetary policy determines an average, but not the distribution of inflation across realizations of uncertainty. The result does not derive from the stability of the deterministic steady state and is not affected essentially by price stickiness. Nominal indeterminacy may affect real allocations in cases we identify. Our characterization applies to stochastic monetary models in general, and it permits a unified treatment of the determinants of paths of inflation. Copyright 2005, Wiley-Blackwell.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomoyuki Nakajima & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2005. "Money and Prices Under Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(1), pages 223-246.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:72:y:2005:i:1:p:223-246
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/0034-6527.00330
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    Cited by:

    1. Dumas, Bernard & Savioz, Marcel René, 2020. "A Theory of the Nominal Character of Stock Securities," CEPR Discussion Papers 15507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Hippolyte d'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron, 2013. "Frequency of trade and the determinacy of equilibrium in economies of overlapping generations," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 9(1), pages 85-100, March.
    3. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A model to analyse financial fragility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(1), pages 107-142, January.
    4. M. Peiris & Alexandros Vardoulakis, 2015. "Collateral and the efficiency of monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 59(3), pages 579-603, August.
    5. Ricardo Reis, 2019. "Central Banks Going Long," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Álvaro Aguirre & Markus Brunnermeier & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications, edition 1, volume 26, chapter 3, pages 043-081, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Bernard Dumas & Marcel Savioz, 2023. "A Theory of the Nominal Character of Stock Securities," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(5), pages 1615-1657.
    7. Bai, Jinhui H. & Schwarz, Ingolf, 2006. "Monetary equilibria in a cash-in-advance economy with incomplete financial markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4-5), pages 422-451, August.
    8. Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2014. "Term structure and forward guidance as instruments of monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 56(1), pages 1-32, May.
    9. Adão, Bernardino & Correia, Isabel & Teles, Pedro, 2014. "Short and long interest rate targets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 95-107.
    10. Kokonas, Nikolaos, 2016. "Nominal rigidities equilibria in a non-Ricardian economy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 108-119.
    11. Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine, 2014. "Anchoring expectations of inflation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 86-105.
    12. Tomoyuki Nakajima & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2002. "Monetary Equilibria with Monopolistic Competition and Sticky Prices," Working Papers 2002-25, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    13. BLOISE, Gaetano & DRÈZE, Jacques & POLEMARCHAKIS, Heracles, 2002. "Money and indeterminacy over an infinite horizon," CORE Discussion Papers 2002021, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    14. Iwan Bos & Ronald Peeters & Erik Pot, 2017. "Competition versus collusion: The impact of consumer inertia," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 13(4), pages 387-400, December.
    15. Bernardino Adão & Isabel Correia & Pedro Teles, 2004. "Monetary policy with single instrument feedback rules," Working Paper Series WP-04-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    16. Bernardino Adão & Pedro Teles, 2004. "Monetary Policy with State Contingent Interest Rates," Working Papers w200418, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Hagedorn, Marcus, 2018. "Prices and Inflation when Government Bonds are Net Wealth," CEPR Discussion Papers 12769, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Matthew Hoelle & M. Udara Peiris, 2013. "On the Efficiency of Nominal GDP Targeting in a Large Open Economy," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1273, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    19. Eagle, David M, 2012. "Liquidity Traps and the Price (In)Determinacy of Monetary Rules," MPRA Paper 42416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. P. Herings, 2014. "General equilibrium and the new neoclassical synthesis," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 57(3), pages 437-477, November.
    21. Charles A.E. Goodhart & M. Udara Peiris & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2019. "Global Imbalances and Taxing Capital Flows," Chapters, in: Financial Regulation and Stability, chapter 11, pages 270-301, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    22. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 2010. "The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 935-999, Elsevier.
    23. Herakles Polemarchakis, 2015. "Markets and Efficiency," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 150-166, June.
    24. McMahon, Michael & Peiris, M. Udara & Polemarchakis, Herakles, 2018. "Perils of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 92-114.

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