IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/matcom/v93y2013icp128-138.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do exchange rates affect consumer prices? A comparative analysis for Australia, China and India

Author

Listed:
  • Saha, Shrabani
  • Zhang, Zhaoyong

Abstract

An important issue for exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) is the extent to which exchange rate changes affect the prices of imported goods and the consumer prices. The objectives of this study are to make a comparative study by exploring the literature relating pass-through for import prices and domestic prices in Australia, China and India. In particular, we test whether the exchange rate pass-through to import prices is complete, estimate the pass-through to consumer price index (CPI) to investigate whether there is any association between the pass-through and the average inflation rate across these countries. A structural VAR model is used to examine the exchange rate pass-through over the period 1990–2011. The impulse responses indicate that exchange rates have less effect in the rising domestic prices in China and India. This will have important policy implication for the monetary authorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Saha, Shrabani & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2013. "Do exchange rates affect consumer prices? A comparative analysis for Australia, China and India," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 128-138.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:93:y:2013:i:c:p:128-138
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2012.11.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475412002819
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.matcom.2012.11.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeannine Bailliu & Eiji Fujii, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Staff Working Papers 04-21, Bank of Canada.
    2. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
    3. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    4. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
    5. Gagnon, Joseph E. & Knetter, Michael M., 1995. "Markup adjustment and exchange rate fluctuations: evidence from panel data on automobile exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 289-310, April.
    6. Varangis, Panayotis N. & Duncan, Ronald C., 1993. "Exchange rate pass through : An application to US and Japanese steel prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 30-39, March.
    7. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    8. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    9. Bouakez, Hafedh & Rebei, Nooman, 2008. "Has exchange rate pass-through really declined? Evidence from Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 249-267, July.
    10. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    11. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    12. Shintani, Mototsugu & Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation: A nonlinear time series analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 512-527.
    13. Sven W. Arndt & J. David Richardson, 1987. "Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 2230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Takatoshi Ito & Kiyotaka Sato, 2008. "Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: Vector Autoregression Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1407-1438, October.
    15. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2001. "Endogenous Currency of Price Setting in a Dynamic Open Economy Model," NBER Working Papers 8559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane E. Ihrig, 2001. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 704, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 1998. "Cointegration Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 651-678, December.
    18. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Junior & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Inflation: The Role of Asymmetries and NonLinearities," Studies in Economics 0801, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    19. Tivig, Thusnelda, 1996. "Exchange rate pass-through in two-period duopoly," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 631-645, July.
    20. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 243, European Central Bank.
    21. Jeannine Bailliu & Hafedh Bouakez, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Industrialized Countries," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2004(Spring), pages 19-28.
    22. repec:bla:jecsur:v:12:y:1998:i:5:p:651-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pınar GÖKTAŞ, 2019. "Asymmetric Transition Effects of the Exchange Rate on Consumer Prices in Turkey," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(42).
    2. Vo The Anh & Le Thai Thuong Quan & Nguyen Van Phuc & Ho Minh Chi & Vo Hong Duc, 2021. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in ASEAN Countries: An Application of the SVAR Model," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 21-34, January.
    3. Michael McAleer & Felix Chan & Les Oxley, 2013. "Modeling and Simulation: An Overview," Working Papers in Economics 13/18, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    4. Anderl, Christina & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 2023. "Nonlinearities in the exchange rate pass-through: The role of inflation expectations," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 86-101.
    5. Gizem BAS & Mehmet KARA, 2020. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through on the Domestic Prices: Evidence from the Turkish Economy," Isletme ve Iktisat Calismalari Dergisi, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 115-125.
    6. Yu Hsing, 2020. "A Simultaneous-Equation Model of Estimating the Response of the Consumer Price to Exchange Rate Movements in Thailand," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 284-293, March.
    7. Joseph Musandiwa & Collins C. Ngwakwe, 2023. "The Effect of Exchange Rates on Consumer Price Index," Oblik i finansi, Institute of Accounting and Finance, issue 4, pages 47-52, December.
    8. Azimi, Mohammad Naim, 2015. "Is CPI generated from stationary process? An investigation on unit root hypothesis of India’s CPI," MPRA Paper 69518, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Jan 2016.
    9. Ganapati Mendali & Sanjukta Das, 2017. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Domestic Prices," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 52(3), pages 135-156, August.
    10. Nguyen Thi Thanh Binh, 2023. "How to Hedge against Inflation Risk in Vietnam," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-12, March.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Algeria: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/048, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ozkan, Ibrahim & Erden, Lutfi, 2015. "Time-varying nature and macroeconomic determinants of exchange rate pass-through," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 56-66.
    2. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2016. "Recent estimates of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 69-105, February.
    3. Kiliç, Rehim, 2016. "Regime-dependent exchange-rate pass-through to import prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 295-308.
    4. Stahn, Kerstin, 2009. "Changes in import pricing behaviour: the case of Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Dr. Jonas Stulz, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through in Switzerland: Evidence from vector autoregressions," Economic Studies 2007-04, Swiss National Bank.
    6. Waldyr Areosa & Marta Areosa, 2012. "The Signaling Effect of Exchange Rates: pass-through under dispersed information," Working Papers Series 282, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. repec:jns:jbstat:v:227:y:2007:i:3:p:295-329 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Naz, Farah & Mohsin, Asma & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through in to inflation: New insights in to the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2205-2221.
    9. Boris Blagov, 2019. "Exchange rate uncertainty and import prices in the euro area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 1537-1572, November.
    10. Haroon Mumtaz & Özlem Oomen & Jian Wang, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through into UK import prices," Bank of England working papers 312, Bank of England.
    11. Jinbin Wang & Nan Li, 2010. "Exchange rate pass-through: The case of China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(3), pages 356-374, September.
    12. Konopczak, Karolina, 2019. "Can inaction account for the incomplete exchangerate pass-through? Evidence from threshold ARDL model," MF Working Papers 37, Ministry of Finance in Poland.
    13. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano & Yakub, Ma'aji Umar & Sanni, Ganiyu Kayode & Duke, Omolara, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Nigeria: Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model," MPRA Paper 25053, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Mar 2010.
    14. Hernán Rincón & Norberto Rodríguez, 2016. "Nonlinear Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Shocks on Inflation: A Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR Approach," IHEID Working Papers 13-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    15. Barhoumi, Karim, 2006. "Differences in long run exchange rate pass-through into import prices in developing countries: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 926-951, December.
    16. Oleksandr Faryna, 2016. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 236, pages 30-42, June.
    17. Capistrán Carlos & Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2011. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2011-12, Banco de México.
    18. repec:zbw:bofitp:2016_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Jane E. Ihrig & Mario Marazzi & Alexander D. Rothenberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 851, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Stahn Kerstin, 2011. "Changes in Import Pricing Behaviour: Evidence for Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(4), pages 522-545, August.
    21. Faryna, Oleksandr, 2016. "Exchange rate pass-through and cross-country spillovers: Some evidence from Ukraine and Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2016, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    22. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Elke Hahn & Marcelo Sánchez, 2007. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 84-102, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate pass-through (ERPT); Structural VAR model; Australia; China and India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:93:y:2013:i:c:p:128-138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/mathematics-and-computers-in-simulation/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.