IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mth/ber888/v10y2020i1p284-293.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Simultaneous-Equation Model of Estimating the Response of the Consumer Price to Exchange Rate Movements in Thailand

Author

Listed:
  • Yu Hsing

Abstract

This paper examines exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to the consumer price in Thailand based on a simultaneous-equation model consisting of the IS, LM and AS function. It employs comparative static analysis to determine the impact of a change in an exogenous variable on the equilibrium price level. The paper finds that a 1% depreciation of the Thai baht tends to cause the CPI to rise by 0.0696% and has declined since the adoption of inflation targeting in 2000. In addition, more money supply, more government deficit as a percent of GDP, a higher crude oil price, a higher U.S. CPI, and a higher expected price tends to raise Thailand's CPI. The findings suggest that in addition to the exchange rate, other relevant variables such as fiscal policy, monetary policy, the crude oil price, U.S. price level and the expected price level are expected to impact the consumer price level.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Hsing, 2020. "A Simultaneous-Equation Model of Estimating the Response of the Consumer Price to Exchange Rate Movements in Thailand," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 284-293, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mth:ber888:v:10:y:2020:i:1:p:284-293
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ber/article/view/16406/12849
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ber/article/view/16406
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," NBER Working Papers 12163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2013. "Inflation targeting, flexible exchange rates and inflation convergence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 593-603, February.
    3. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2021. "On the Seemingly Incompleteness of Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices: Do Globalization and/or Regional Trade Matter?," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 35-59, Springer.
    4. Prasertnukul, Weera & Kim, Donghun & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2010. "Exchange rates, price levels, and inflation targeting: Evidence from Asian countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 173-182, August.
    5. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2015. "Pass-through of trade costs to U.S. import prices," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(4), pages 609-633, November.
    6. Ha, Jongrim & Marc Stocker, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2020. "Inflation and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    7. Salsa Dilla & Noer Azam Achsani & Lukytawati Anggraeni, 2017. "Do Inflation Targeting Really Reduced Exchange Rate Pass-through?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 444-452.
    8. Siew-Voon Soon & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Exchange rate pass-through in the Asian countries: does inflation volatility matter?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 309-312, March.
    9. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2017. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging countries: Do the inflation environment, monetary policy regime and central bank behavior matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 20-38.
    10. Saha, Shrabani & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2013. "Do exchange rates affect consumer prices? A comparative analysis for Australia, China and India," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 128-138.
    11. Sebastián Edwards, 2007. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 10, pages 373-413, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Takatoshi Ito & Kiyotaka Sato, 2008. "Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: Vector Autoregression Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1407-1438, October.
    13. Aleem, Abdul & Lahiani, Amine, 2014. "Monetary policy credibility and exchange rate pass-through: Some evidence from emerging countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 21-29.
    14. Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2010. "Emerging floaters: Pass-throughs and (some) new commodity currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1580-1595, December.
    15. Kassi, Diby François & Sun, Gang & Ding, Ning & Rathnayake, Dilesha Nawadali & Assamoi, Guy Roland, 2019. "Asymmetry in exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices: Evidence from emerging and developing Asian countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 357-372.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Javed Ahmad Bhat & Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Waseem Ahmad Parray, 2025. "Nonlinearity in exchange rate pass-through across BRICS: Role of business cycle and inflation," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-32, February.
    2. Anderl, Christina & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 2023. "Nonlinearities in the exchange rate pass-through: The role of inflation expectations," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 86-101.
    3. Nguyen Van Phuc & Vo Hong Duc, 2021. "Macroeconomics Determinants of Exchange Rate Pass-Through: New Evidence from the Asia-Pacific Region," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 5-20, January.
    4. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Phillips Curve for the Asian Economies: A Nonlinear Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 3508-3537, September.
    5. Abdul Jalil, 2020. "What Do We Know of Exchange Rate Pass Through?," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2020:5, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    6. Siew-Voon Soon & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2017. "Exchange Rate Pass-through (ERPT) into Domestic Prices: Evidence from a Nonlinear Perspective," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 1160-1167.
    7. Tunç, Cengiz, 2017. "A Survey on Exchange Rate Pass through in Emerging Markets," Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, BETA Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 205-233, July-Sept.
    8. Ha, Jongrim & Marc Stocker, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2020. "Inflation and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    9. Vo The Anh & Le Thai Thuong Quan & Nguyen Van Phuc & Ho Minh Chi & Vo Hong Duc, 2021. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in ASEAN Countries: An Application of the SVAR Model," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 21-34, January.
    10. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Markov-switching analysis of exchange rate pass-through: Perspective from Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 245-257.
    11. Köse, Nezir & Ünal, Emre, 2021. "The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    12. Idrisov, Georgy (Идрисов, Георгий) & Ponomarev, Yury (Пономарев, Юрий) & Pleskachev, Yury Andreevich (Плескачев, Юрий Андреевич), 2016. "Analysis of Joint Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Import Duty Rates in the Russian Economy [Анализ Совместного Эффекта Переноса Обменного Курса И Ввозных Пошлин В Цены В Российской Экономике]," Working Papers 1666, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    13. Beirne, John & Renzhi, Nuobu & Panthi, Pradeep, 2024. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging Asia and exposure to external shocks," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1608-1624.
    14. Kwon, Janghan & Shin, Woongjae, 2023. "Nonlinear exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy credibility: Evidence from Korea," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    15. Harold Glenn A. Valera & Mark J. Holmes & Gazi M. Hassan, 2018. "Is inflation targeting credible in Asia? A panel GARCH approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 523-546, March.
    16. Manopimoke, Pym & Nookhwun, Nuwat & Pattararangrong, Jettawat, 2024. "Exchange rate in emerging markets: Shock absorber or source of shock?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    17. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through to import prices: accounting for changes in the eurozone trade structure," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(4), pages 835-858, November.
    18. Martina Jašová & Richhild Moessner & Elöd Takáts, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 27-58, September.
    19. Lin, Po-Chun & Wu, Chung-Shu, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through in deflation: The case of Taiwan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 101-111.
    20. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "A quarter century of inflation targeting & structural change in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from the first three movers," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 42-61.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate pass-through; Exchange rates; Consumer prices; Money supply; Crude oil prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mth:ber888:v:10:y:2020:i:1:p:284-293. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Technical Support Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ber .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.