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The Effect of Exchange Rates on Consumer Price Index

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph Musandiwa

    (University of Limpopo, Polokwane, South Africa)

  • Collins C. Ngwakwe

    (University of Limpopo, Polokwane, South Africa)

Abstract

The consumer price index (CPI) is a crucial economic indicator of consumer price inflation, which has an attendance effect on the extent of savings and, hence, on investment capacity. The literature contains different opinions on the relationship between exchange rate and consumer price index; however, given the uniqueness of each country's economic environment, it became apposite to focus the bearing of this paper on the South African economic context. Thus, this paper evaluates the effect of currency exchange rates on the consumer price index in South Africa. Time series data on CPI and exchange rates were drawn from the Fusion Media investment database and were analysed using the OLS regression. For the independent variables exchange rate, which is the Rand price against the Dollar, the authors applied lagg-2 given the assumption that exchange rate differences might take up to two months to affect the consumer price index. The authors' assumption draws from the findings of eminent scholars, which indicate that, given sufficient time, changes in domestic prices would fully compensate for exchange rate adjustments. The analysis showed that exchange rate changes significantly and positively affect CPI within the data's boundaries. The findings offer academic and practical implications for understanding the theoretical short-term period effect of the exchange rate on the consumer price index within the South African setting and for practical economic policy application for advanced policies to cushion potential negative effects on savings and investment. The paper provides an agenda for further study of the application of expanded time series to evaluate the effect of currency exchange rates on CPI over a longer period to unravel a theoretical difference between the short-term and long-term implications of exchange rates on CPI.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Musandiwa & Collins C. Ngwakwe, 2023. "The Effect of Exchange Rates on Consumer Price Index," Oblik i finansi, Institute of Accounting and Finance, issue 4, pages 47-52, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:iaf:journl:y:2023:i:4:p:47-52
    DOI: 10.33146/2307-9878-2023-4(102)-47-52
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saha, Shrabani & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2013. "Do exchange rates affect consumer prices? A comparative analysis for Australia, China and India," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 128-138.
    2. Usupbeyli, Akin & Ucak, Sefer, 2020. "The Effects of Exchange Rates on CPI and PPI," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 11(2), pages 323-334, April.
    3. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2003. "Whither reform? Towards a new agenda for Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    4. Matthew D. Shapiro & David W. Wilcox, 1996. "Mismeasurement in the Consumer Price Index: An Evaluation," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 93-154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Elaine Chung & Marion Kohler & Christine Lewis, 2011. "The Exchange Rate and Consumer Prices," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 9-16, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer price index; exchange rate; savings and investment; inflation; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • G50 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - General
    • P36 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Consumer Economics; Health; Education and Training; Welfare, Income, Wealth, and Poverty
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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