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The life-span prediction of a system connected in series

Author

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  • Wang, Lichun
  • Wang, Xuan

Abstract

This article considers the prediction problem of the life-span of a system whose components connected in series and the lifetime of the components follows the exponential distribution with probability density f(x;θ)=θ−1exp⁡(−x/θ)I(x>0). Employing the Bayes method, a prior distribution G(θ) is used to describe the variability of θ but the form of G(θ) is not specified and only one moment condition is assumed. Suppose the observed lifetimes of components are rightly censored, we define a prediction statistic to predict the life-span of the series-wound system which consists of some untested components, firstly, under the condition that the censoring distribution is known and secondly, that it is unknown. For several different priors, we investigate the coverage frequencies of the proposed prediction intervals as the sample size and the censorship proportion change. The simulation study shows that our predictions are efficient and applicable.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Lichun & Wang, Xuan, 2009. "The life-span prediction of a system connected in series," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 1770-1777.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:79:y:2009:i:5:p:1770-1777
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2008.09.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Qiao, Hongzhu & Tsokos, Chris P., 1994. "Parameter estimation of the Weibull probability distribution," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 47-55.
    2. Kundu, Debasis & Gupta, Rameshwar D., 2008. "Generalized exponential distribution: Bayesian estimations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 1873-1883, January.
    3. Qiao, Hongzhu & Tsokos, Chris P., 1995. "Estimation of the three parameter Weibull probability distribution," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 173-185.
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    Cited by:

    1. El-Adll, Magdy E., 2011. "Predicting future lifetime based on random number of three parameters Weibull distribution," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(9), pages 1842-1854.

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