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Small island tourism economies and country risk ratings

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  • Shareef, Riaz
  • Hoti, Suhejla

Abstract

During the last two decades, there has been a growing fascination with the livelihood of islands with small populations and territories which overwhelmingly rely on tourism as a source of exports. The small island tourism economies (SITEs) analyzed in this paper were colonised, and had depended heavily on financial aid from their former colonists for infrastructure development that has declined dramatically since the collapse of the Soviet Union. These economies are developing countries which need a consistent inflow of foreign direct investment to maintain economic growth. They have limited resources, are perceived to suffer from frequent natural disasters, and the international financial community considers them to be risky entities. For this reason, the paper provides a comparison of monthly country risk ratings compiled by the ICRG for six SITEs from 1984 to 2001 and analyses the relationship between country risk and economic growth for these six SITEs using annual data from 1985 to 2000. The economic growth rate is positively correlated with risk ratings in only 13 of the 24 cases. This is a surprising result as the country risk literature asserts that increases in risk ratings are noticeably influenced by higher economic growth rates, and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Shareef, Riaz & Hoti, Suhejla, 2005. "Small island tourism economies and country risk ratings," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 553-566.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:68:y:2005:i:5:p:553-566
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2005.02.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. Kuznets, 1960. "Economic Growth Of Small Nations," International Economic Association Series, in: E. A. G. Robinson (ed.), Economic Consequences of the Size of Nations, chapter 0, pages 14-32, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Suhejla Hoti & Michael McAleer, 2004. "An Empirical Assessment of Country Risk Ratings and Associated Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 539-588, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. John Hudson & Philip Jones, 2008. "Corruption And Military Expenditure: At 'No Cost To The King'," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 387-403.
    2. Wang, Qiang & Dong, Zequn & Li, Rongrong & Wang, Lili, 2022. "Renewable energy and economic growth: New insight from country risks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    3. Shareef, Riaz & McAleer, Michael, 2008. "Modelling international tourism demand and uncertainty in Maldives and Seychelles: A portfolio approach," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 459-468.

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