IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v29y2012i6p2494-2503.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying the risk-return tradeoff and exploring the dynamic risk exposure of country portfolio of the FSU's oil economies

Author

Listed:
  • Sun, Xiaolei
  • Li, Jianping
  • Tang, Ling
  • Wu, Dengsheng

Abstract

Country risk not only reflects the overall risk of a given economy but also offers other more comprehensive risk information for stakeholders' decision-making. Different from previous studies focusing on oil import portfolio risk, this paper expands the scope of risk exposure from the micro risk of import portfolio to the macro risk of country portfolio, and puts forward a two-step framework to analyze the risk exposure when importing oil from the FSU region. Firstly, the paper analyzes the risk-return tradeoff of the FSU compared with the Middle East. Secondly, the country portfolio perspective is used from a macro risk perspective, and then an extension of the Value-at-Risk model which is incorporated time-varying conditional volatility mode is adopted to describe the dynamic risk of country portfolio. Empirical results show that increasing energy imports from the FSU is an effective way for China to balance risk from the high import dependence on the Middle East, but China faces more significant risk exposure of country portfolio comprised of FSU's oil economies than EU does.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Xiaolei & Li, Jianping & Tang, Ling & Wu, Dengsheng, 2012. "Identifying the risk-return tradeoff and exploring the dynamic risk exposure of country portfolio of the FSU's oil economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2494-2503.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:6:p:2494-2503
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.07.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999312002234
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.07.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hoti, Suhejla, 2005. "Modelling country spillover effects in country risk ratings," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 324-345, December.
    2. Iglesias, Emma M. & Phillips, Garry D. A., 2003. "Another look about the evolution of the risk premium: a VAR-GARCH-M model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 777-789, July.
    3. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    4. Costello, Ken, 2005. "A Perspective on Fuel Diversity," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 28-47, May.
    5. Hallock, John L. & Tharakan, Pradeep J. & Hall, Charles A.S. & Jefferson, Michael & Wu, Wei, 2004. "Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1673-1696.
    6. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
    7. Pesaran, M.H., 2010. "Conditional Volatility and Correlations of Weekly Returns and the VaR Analysis of 2008 Stock Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1025, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Wu, Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Fan, Ying & Liu, Lan-Cui, 2007. "An empirical analysis of the risk of crude oil imports in China using improved portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4190-4199, August.
    9. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    10. Tastan, Hüseyin, 2006. "Estimating time-varying conditional correlations between stock and foreign exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 360(2), pages 445-458.
    11. Pesaran, Bahram & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2010. "Conditional volatility and correlations of weekly returns and the VaR analysis of 2008 stock market crash," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1398-1416, November.
    12. Campbell, Rachel & Huisman, Ronald & Koedijk, Kees, 2001. "Optimal portfolio selection in a Value-at-Risk framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1789-1804, September.
    13. Wabiri, Njeri & Amusa, Hammed, 2010. "Quantifying South Africa's crude oil import risk: A multi-criteria portfolio model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 445-453, January.
    14. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    15. Gnansounou, Edgard, 2008. "Assessing the energy vulnerability: Case of industrialised countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3734-3744, October.
    16. Suhejla Hoti & Michael McAleer, 2004. "An Empirical Assessment of Country Risk Ratings and Associated Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 539-588, September.
    17. Asai, Manabu & McAleer, Michael, 2008. "A Portfolio Index GARCH model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 449-461.
    18. Kalyuzhnova, Yelena & Nygaard, Christian, 2008. "State governance evolution in resource-rich transition economies: An application to Russia and Kazakhstan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1829-1842, June.
    19. Comte, F. & Lieberman, O., 2003. "Asymptotic theory for multivariate GARCH processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 61-84, January.
    20. Hammer, P.L. & Kogan, A. & Lejeune, M.A., 2006. "Modeling country risk ratings using partial orders," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 836-859, December.
    21. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wei, Yu, 2011. "Can GARCH-class models capture long memory in WTI crude oil markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 921-927, May.
    22. Gupta, Eshita, 2008. "Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1195-1211, March.
    23. Jianping Li & Xiaolei Sun & Wan He & Ling Tang & Weixuan Xu, 2009. "Modeling Dynamic Correlations And Spillover Effects Of Country Risk: Evidence From Russia And Kazakhstan," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 803-818.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Yuying & Li, Jianping & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming, 2014. "Measuring external oil supply risk: A modified diversification index with country risk and potential oil exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 930-938.
    2. Guo, Yawei & Li, Jianping & Li, Yehua & You, Wanhai, 2021. "The roles of political risk and crude oil in stock market based on quantile cointegration approach: A comparative study in China and US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    3. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Le, TN-Lan & Leyva-de la Hiz, Dante I., 2021. "Markov-switching dependence between artificial intelligence and carbon price: The role of policy uncertainty in the era of the 4th industrial revolution and the effect of COVID-19 pandemic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Chang & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming & Li, Jianping, 2016. "Statistical properties of country risk ratings under oil price volatility: Evidence from selected oil-exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 234-245.
    2. Jianping Li & Xiaolei Sun & Fei Wang & Dengsheng Wu, 2015. "Risk integration and optimization of oil-importing maritime system: a multi-objective programming approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 234(1), pages 57-76, November.
    3. Månsson, André & Johansson, Bengt & Nilsson, Lars J., 2014. "Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    4. Gatfaoui, Hayette, 2013. "Translating financial integration into correlation risk: A weekly reporting's viewpoint for the volatility behavior of stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 776-791.
    5. Michael McAleer, 2009. "The Ten Commandments For Optimizing Value‐At‐Risk And Daily Capital Charges," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 831-849, December.
    6. Kwangmin Jung & Donggyu Kim & Seunghyeon Yu, 2022. "Next generation models for portfolio risk management: An approach using financial big data," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(3), pages 765-787, September.
    7. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Chen, Xiuwen & Li, Jianping, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk of crude oil imports: Case of China’s global oil supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 449-465.
    8. Paolella, Marc S. & Polak, Paweł & Walker, Patrick S., 2021. "A non-elliptical orthogonal GARCH model for portfolio selection under transaction costs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    9. Allen, David & Lizieri, Colin & Satchell, Stephen, 2020. "A comparison of non-Gaussian VaR estimation and portfolio construction techniques," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 356-368.
    10. Ge, Fenglong & Fan, Ying, 2013. "Quantifying the risk to crude oil imports in China: An improved portfolio approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-80.
    11. Vincenzo Candila, 2021. "Multivariate Analysis of Cryptocurrencies," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-17, July.
    12. Yang, Yuying & Li, Jianping & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming, 2014. "Measuring external oil supply risk: A modified diversification index with country risk and potential oil exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 930-938.
    13. Guochang Wang & Wai Keung Li & Ke Zhu, 2018. "New HSIC-based tests for independence between two stationary multivariate time series," Papers 1804.09866, arXiv.org.
    14. Sucarrat, Genaro & Grønneberg, Steffen & Escribano, Alvaro, 2016. "Estimation and inference in univariate and multivariate log-GARCH-X models when the conditional density is unknown," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 582-594.
    15. Diaa Noureldin & Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2012. "Multivariate high‐frequency‐based volatility (HEAVY) models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 907-933, September.
    16. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    17. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-243.
    18. Lan-Cui Liu & Gang Wu, 2015. "Assessment of energy supply vulnerability between China and USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 127-138, February.
    19. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut & Maxand, Simone, 2022. "Identification of structural multivariate GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 212-227.
    20. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Ranking Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension," CARF F-Series CARF-F-219, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:6:p:2494-2503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.