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Country size, economic performance and volatility

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  • Olfa Alouini
  • Paul Hubert

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

What are the relationships between country size, economic growth and business cycle volatility? To investigate this question, we developed an originalcountry-size index with principal component analysis. Traditional analysis usually equates country size with population. Our methodology enables to simultaneously consider several factors constitutive of country size: population,GDP and arable land. These additional variables allow us to capture different components of the country size and to control for more than a demographic effect. Using a panel data set of 163 countries for 1960–2007, we find, contrary to Rose (2006), that country size has a significant and negative correlation with economic performance. Our results for output volatility extend the negative and significant relationship found by Furceri and Karras (2007). In addition, we present differentiated results for small and large countries, OECD members, eurozone countries and the so-called BRIC countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Olfa Alouini & Paul Hubert, 2019. "Country size, economic performance and volatility," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403618, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03403618
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.164.0139
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03403618
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    Cited by:

    1. Toshiki Tamai, 2023. "Social security, economic growth, and social welfare in an overlapping generation model with idiosyncratic TFP shock and heterogeneous workers," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1829-1862, July.
    2. Cristiana Tudor & Robert Sova, 2022. "Driving Factors for R&D Intensity: Evidence from Global and Income-Level Panels," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Harvey W. Armstrong & Robert Read, 2020. "Size And Sectoral Specialisation: The Asymmetric Cross‐Country Impacts Of The 2008 Crisis And Its Aftermath," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 891-921, August.

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