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On the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemiological parameters using only the series of deceased. A study of the Spanish outbreak using Genetic Algorithms

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  • Acosta-González, Eduardo
  • Andrada-Félix, Julián
  • Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando

Abstract

We propose a methodology for estimating the evolution of the epidemiological parameters of a SIRD model (acronym of Susceptible, Infected, Recovered and Deceased individuals) which allows to evaluate the sanitary measures taken by the government, for the COVID-19 in the Spanish outbreak. In our methodology the only information required for estimating these parameters is the time series of deceased people; due to the number of asymptomatic people produced by the COVID-19, it is not possible to know the actual number of infected people at any given time. Therefore, among the different time series that quantify the pandemic we consider just the number of deceased people to minimize the square sum of errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Acosta-González, Eduardo & Andrada-Félix, Julián & Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando, 2022. "On the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemiological parameters using only the series of deceased. A study of the Spanish outbreak using Genetic Algorithms," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 91-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:197:y:2022:i:c:p:91-104
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2022.02.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lijun Pei & Mengyu Zhang & Toshikazu Kuniya, 2021. "Long-Term Predictions of COVID-19 in Some Countries by the SIRD Model," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-18, June.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    3. Yarsky, P., 2021. "Using a genetic algorithm to fit parameters of a COVID-19 SEIR model for US states," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 687-695.
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    1. Omame, Andrew & Abbas, Mujahid & Din, Anwarud, 2023. "Global asymptotic stability, extinction and ergodic stationary distribution in a stochastic model for dual variants of SARS-CoV-2," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 302-336.

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