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The expansion of wheat thermal suitability of Russia in response to climate change

Author

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  • Di Paola, A.
  • Caporaso, L.
  • Di Paola, F.
  • Bombelli, A.
  • Vasenev, I.
  • Nesterova, O.V.
  • Castaldi, S.
  • Valentini, R.

Abstract

The emergence of Russia as a major grain exporter is not only crucial for the world commercial agriculture and food security, but also for the country’s economy. Here we examine the past-to-future thermal suitability for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum, L. 1753) cultivation over Russia and compare it with the recent trends of wheat yields and harvested area. The analyses use a multi-model ensemble median of the most updated bias-corrected outputs from five CMIP5 Earth System Models (1950–2099) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the Era-Interim dataset (1979–2016).

Suggested Citation

  • Di Paola, A. & Caporaso, L. & Di Paola, F. & Bombelli, A. & Vasenev, I. & Nesterova, O.V. & Castaldi, S. & Valentini, R., 2018. "The expansion of wheat thermal suitability of Russia in response to climate change," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 70-77.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:78:y:2018:i:c:p:70-77
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.06.035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    2. Liefert, William & Liefert, Olga, 2015. "Russia's Potential to Increase Grain Production by Expanding Area," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212045, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Liefert, William M. & Liefert, Olga, 2015. "Russia’s Economic Crisis and its Agricultural and Food Economy," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-6, March.
    4. Schierhorn, Florian & Müller, Daniel & Prishchepov, Alexander V. & Faramarzi, Monireh & Balmann, Alfons, 2014. "The potential of Russia to increase its wheat production through cropland expansion and intensification," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 3(3-4), pages 133-141.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yuan Gao & Anyu Zhang & Yaojie Yue & Jing’ai Wang & Peng Su, 2021. "Predicting Shifts in Land Suitability for Maize Cultivation Worldwide Due to Climate Change: A Modeling Approach," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-31, March.
    3. Dmitry A. Ruban & Natalia N. Yashalova & Olga A. Cherednichenko & Natalya A. Dovgot’ko, 2020. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Energy Transition: What Do the Thirty Most-Cited Articles Tell Us?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-20, September.

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