IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v108y2021ics0264837721002337.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Amazon rainforest deforestation influenced by clandestine and regular roadway network

Author

Listed:
  • das Neves, Patricia Bittencourt Tavares
  • Blanco, Claudio José Cavalcante
  • Montenegro Duarte, André Augusto Azevedo
  • das Neves, Filipe Bittencourt Souza
  • das Neves, Isabela Bittencourt Souza
  • de Paula dos Santos, Marcelo Henrique

Abstract

Since 1950, the Amazonian and Brazilian transportation complex has prioritized the model of road transport. This model does not adequately consider the singularities of each site, especially the potential for waterway transport in the Amazon. This fact probably contributed to the unsustainable local development, even though it implemented various large projects of integration, hydroelectric, mineral and agroindustry. Past studies point out that the regular roadway system that is integrated into a clandestine roadway complex is strongly related to Amazon forest deforestation. Thus, the objectives of this work are 1) investigate the influence of clandestine and regular roadway network on the deforestation of the Amazon forest and 2) to develop an approach to deforestation forecast, utilizing a time series of 30 years (1988–2018). We used machine learning in the modeling of the quantitative variables related to the transportation infrastructure, social variables and economic variables, e.g., the deforested area. The geographical study area is the state of Pará, located in the Oriental Amazon, the second largest state of Brazil in territorial extension and the most deforested. The random forest model presented the best performance with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 2534.06 and a standard deviation (STD) of 2347.67 km2, pointing to a strong relationship and showing a very strong tendency. We used sensitivity analysis to evaluate the effects of regular roadway network and clandestine roadway network on deforestation. With the generated function (using the least squares method), the deforested area was estimated for the years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050. The results show that given the same scenario, deforestation tends to continue intensively in the next three decades. The total loss is more than 72,417.93 km2 (25.77% increase compared to the current deforested area). The results show an increasing curve, although with decreasing rates of forest loss in ten years, on average from 7.80% to 0.80% per year.

Suggested Citation

  • das Neves, Patricia Bittencourt Tavares & Blanco, Claudio José Cavalcante & Montenegro Duarte, André Augusto Azevedo & das Neves, Filipe Bittencourt Souza & das Neves, Isabela Bittencourt Souza & de P, 2021. "Amazon rainforest deforestation influenced by clandestine and regular roadway network," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:108:y:2021:i:c:s0264837721002337
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105510
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837721002337
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105510?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vincenzi, Simone & Zucchetta, Matteo & Franzoi, Piero & Pellizzato, Michele & Pranovi, Fabio & De Leo, Giulio A. & Torricelli, Patrizia, 2011. "Application of a Random Forest algorithm to predict spatial distribution of the potential yield of Ruditapes philippinarum in the Venice lagoon, Italy," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(8), pages 1471-1478.
    2. Prates, Rodolfo Coelho & Bacha, Carlos Jose Caetano, 2010. "Análise da relação entre desmatamento e bem-estar da população da Amazônia Legal," Brazilian Journal of Rural Economy and Sociology (Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural-RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 48(1), pages 1-29, March.
    3. Hochard, Sébastien & Pinazo, Christel & Grenz, Christian & Evans, Jessica L. Burton & Pringault, Olivier, 2010. "Impact of microphytobenthos on the sediment biogeochemical cycles: A modeling approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(13), pages 1687-1701.
    4. Ferrante, Lucas & Gomes, Mércio & Fearnside, Philip Martin, 2020. "Amazonian indigenous peoples are threatened by Brazil’s Highway BR-319," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Smyth, Emer & Banks, Joanne & O’Sullivan, Jessica & McCoy, Selina & Redmond, Paul & McGuinness, Seamus, 2019. "Evaluation of the National Youthreach Programme," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS82.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Parras, Rafael & de Mendonça, Gislaine Costa & da Costa, Luis Miguel & Rocha, Juan Ricardo & Costa, Renata Cristina Araújo & Valera, Carlos Alberto & Fernandes, Luís Filipe Sanches & Pacheco, Fernando, 2024. "Land use footprints and policies in Brazil," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Serôdio, João & Bastos, Alexandra & Morelle, Jérôme & Frankenbach, Silja, 2023. "Light niche construction: Motility of sediment-inhabiting diatoms determines the experienced light environment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).
    2. Nolan, Anne & Smyth, Emer, 2022. "Disrupted transitions: young adults during the COVID-19 pandemic," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS142.
    3. Ferrante, Lucas & Andrade, Maryane B.T. & Fearnside, Philip M., 2021. "Land grabbing on Brazil's Highway BR-319 as a spearhead for Amazonian deforestation," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. Karlsson, Per & Noela, Massa, 2022. "Beliefs influencing students’ career choices in Sweden and reasons for not choosing the accounting profession," Journal of Accounting Education, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Joel Henrique Ellwanger & Carlos Afonso Nobre & José Artur Bogo Chies, 2022. "Brazilian Biodiversity as a Source of Power and Sustainable Development: A Neglected Opportunity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.
    6. McLean, Karen & Clarke, Jessica & Scott, Dorothy & Hiscock, Harriet & Goldfeld, Sharon, 2020. "Foster and kinship carer experiences of accessing healthcare: A qualitative study of barriers, enablers and potential solutions," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. So Young Woo & Chung Gil Jung & Ji Wan Lee & Seong Joon Kim, 2019. "Evaluation of Watershed Scale Aquatic Ecosystem Health by SWAT Modeling and Random Forest Technique," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-15, June.
    8. V. Kohestani & M. Hassanlourad & A. Ardakani, 2015. "Evaluation of liquefaction potential based on CPT data using random forest," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 1079-1089, November.
    9. Davidson, Angus Alexander & Young, Michael Denis & Leake, John Espie & O’Connor, Patrick, 2022. "Aid and forgetting the enemy: A systematic review of the unintended consequences of international development in fragile and conflict-affected situations," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Le Cadre, Hélène & Bedo, Jean-Sébastien, 2020. "Consensus reaching with heterogeneous user preferences, private input and privacy-preservation output," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 7(C).
    11. Bonanno, Alessandro & Mendis, Sachintha S., 2021. "Too cool for farm to school? Analyzing the determinants of farm to school programming continuation," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    12. Grimmett, Liam & Whitsed, Rachel & Horta, Ana, 2020. "Presence-only species distribution models are sensitive to sample prevalence: Evaluating models using spatial prediction stability and accuracy metrics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 431(C).
    13. Netrananda Sahu & Pritiranjan Das & Atul Saini & Ayush Varun & Suraj Kumar Mallick & Rajiv Nayan & S. P. Aggarwal & Balaram Pani & Ravi Kesharwani & Anil Kumar, 2023. "Analysis of Tea Plantation Suitability Using Geostatistical and Machine Learning Techniques: A Case of Darjeeling Himalaya, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, June.
    14. Kosicki, Jakub Z., 2017. "Should topographic metrics be considered when predicting species density of birds on a large geographical scale? A case of Random Forest approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 349(C), pages 76-85.
    15. Ewa Wilk & Małgorzata Krówczyńska & Bogdan Zagajewski, 2019. "Modelling the Spatial Distribution of Asbestos—Cement Products in Poland with the Use of the Random Forest Algorithm," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-13, August.
    16. Fukuda, Shinji & Spreer, Wolfram & Yasunaga, Eriko & Yuge, Kozue & Sardsud, Vicha & Müller, Joachim, 2013. "Random Forests modelling for the estimation of mango (Mangifera indica L. cv. Chok Anan) fruit yields under different irrigation regimes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 142-150.
    17. Schreiner, Lena & Madlener, Reinhard, 2022. "Investing in power grid infrastructure as a flexibility option: A DSGE assessment for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    18. Ertürk, Ali & Sakurova, Ilona & Zilius, Mindaugas & Zemlys, Petras & Umgiesser, Georg & Kaynaroglu, Burak & Pilkaitytė, Renata & Razinkovas-Baziukas, Artūras, 2023. "Development of a pelagic biogeochemical model with enhanced computational performance by optimizing ecological complexity and spatial resolution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    19. Gonzalo Varela & Juan Pedro Gambetta & Federico Ganz & Andreas Eberhard & Sebastian Franco & Stefania Lovo, 2020. "Import Duties and Performance," World Bank Publications - Reports 33886, The World Bank Group.
    20. Wiltshire, Kathryn H & Tanner, Jason E, 2020. "Comparing maximum entropy modelling methods to inform aquaculture site selection for novel seaweed species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 429(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:108:y:2021:i:c:s0264837721002337. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.