IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lajcba/v5y2024i3s2666143824000048.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of the Covid pension withdrawals and the Universal Guaranteed Pension on the income of the future retirees and its fiscal costs

Author

Listed:
  • Madeira, Carlos

Abstract

Chile implemented large pension withdrawals during the pandemic relative to other countries. Afterwards, Chile increased non-contributory benefits in a quasi-universal scheme. Simulating the future pensions, I show that the average loss in contributory pension income is 27.9%, with losses of 23.9% and 31.4% for men and women, respectively. After accounting for public transfers, the average loss in total pension income is just 6.2%, with losses of 7.5% and 5.2% for men and women, respectively. Current retirees lost just 1.1% of their pension income after accounting for the government transfers. The state may end up covering 92% of the total value of the pension withdrawals through the increased transfers.

Suggested Citation

  • Madeira, Carlos, 2024. "The effect of the Covid pension withdrawals and the Universal Guaranteed Pension on the income of the future retirees and its fiscal costs," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(3).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lajcba:v:5:y:2024:i:3:s2666143824000048
    DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100122
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666143824000048
    Download Restriction: Gold Open Access
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100122?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cerda, Rodrigo & Vergara, Rodrigo, 2007. "Unemployment insurance in Chile: Does it stabilize the business cycle?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 473-488.
    2. Wang-Ly, Nathan & Newell, Ben R., 2022. "Allowing early access to retirement savings: Lessons from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 716-733.
    3. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 2010. "Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 693-751, September.
    4. Sumit Agarwal & Jessica Pan & Wenlan Qian, 2020. "Age of Decision: Pension Savings Withdrawal and Consumption and Debt Response," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 43-69, January.
    5. Bateman, Hazel & Dobrescu, Loretti I. & Liu, Junhao & Newell, Ben R. & Thorp, Susan, 2023. "Determinants of early-access to retirement savings: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    6. López, Fernando & Rosas, Guillermo, 2022. "COVID-19 and attitudes towards early withdrawal of pension funds: The role of trust and political ideology," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    7. Berstein, Solange & Morales, Marco, 2021. "The role of a longevity insurance for defined contribution pension systems," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 233-240.
    8. Galiani, Sebastian & Gertler, Paul & Bando, Rosangela, 2016. "Non-contributory pensions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 47-58.
    9. Miguel Lorca, 2021. "Effects of COVID‐19 early release of pension funds: The case of Chile," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(4), pages 903-936, December.
    10. Rodrigo Cerda & Rodrigo Fuentes & Gonzalo García & José I. Llodrá, 2020. "Understanding domestic savings: an empirical approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(9), pages 905-928, February.
    11. Carlos Madeira, 2022. "The double impact of deep social unrest and a pandemic: Evidence from Chile," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 135-171, February.
    12. Madeira, Carlos, 2022. "The impact of the Chilean pension withdrawals during the Covid pandemic on the future savings rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Olivera, Javier & Valderrama, José A., 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Future Pensions of the Peruvian Pension System," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12492, Inter-American Development Bank.
    14. Carlos Madeira, 2015. "Identification of Earning Dynamics using Rotating Samples over Short Periods: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 754, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Marcela Parada-Contzen, 2020. "Crowding-out in savings decisions, portfolio default adoption and home ownership: evidence from the Chilean retirement system," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 543-569, June.
    16. Marika Santoro, 2017. "Pension Reform Options in Chile: Some Tradeoffs," IMF Working Papers 2017/053, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Marie Briere & James Poterba & Ariane Szafarz, 2022. "Precautionary Liquidity and Retirement Saving," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 112, pages 147-150, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Madeira, 2024. "The effect of Covid pension withdrawals and the Universal Guaranteed Pension on the income of future retirees in Chile," BIS Working Papers 1176, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Madeira, Carlos, 2022. "The impact of the Chilean pension withdrawals during the Covid pandemic on the future savings rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Bateman, Hazel & Dobrescu, Loretti I. & Liu, Junhao & Newell, Ben R. & Thorp, Susan, 2023. "Determinants of early-access to retirement savings: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    4. Madeira, Carlos, 2021. "The long term impact of Chilean policy reforms on savings and pensions," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    5. Madeira, Carlos & Salazar, Leonardo, 2023. "The impact of monetary policy on a labor market with heterogeneous workers: The case of Chile," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).
    6. Madeira, Carlos, 2023. "The evolution of consumption inequality and risk-insurance in Chile," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Carlos Madeira, 2022. "The double impact of deep social unrest and a pandemic: Evidence from Chile," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 135-171, February.
    8. Olivera, Javier & Valderrama, José A., 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Future Pensions of the Peruvian Pension System," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12492, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Jing You & Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa, 2019. "The Intergenerational Impact of China's New Rural Pension Scheme," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(S1), pages 47-95, December.
    10. Wang-Ly, Nathan & Newell, Ben R., 2022. "Allowing early access to retirement savings: Lessons from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 716-733.
    11. Carlos Madeira, 2023. "The evolution of macroprudential policy use in Chile, Latin America and the OECD," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 357-380, September.
    12. Izquierdo, Alejandro & Robles, Edgar A. & Tapia Troncoso, Waldo, 2024. "Reshaping Retirement: Navigating Latin America’s Pension Systems after COVID-19," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 13540, December.
    13. Madeira, Carlos, 2019. "Measuring the covariance risk of consumer debt portfolios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 21-38.
    14. Madeira, Carlos, 2019. "The impact of interest rate ceilings on households’ credit access: Evidence from a 2013 Chilean legislation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 166-179.
    15. Madeira, Carlos, 2018. "Explaining the cyclical volatility of consumer debt risk using a heterogeneous agents model: The case of Chile," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 209-220.
    16. Carlos Madeira, 2023. "Adverse selection, loan access and default behavior in the Chilean consumer debt market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, December.
    17. Carlos Madeira, 2016. "Explaining the Cyclical Volatility of Consumer Debt Risk," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 772, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Kang, Ji Young & Park, Sojung & Ahn, Seoyeon, 2022. "The effect of social pension on consumption among older adults in Korea," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    19. Klos, Alexander & Rottke, Simon, 2013. "Saving and Consumption When Children Move Out," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79786, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Zhao, Weimin & Chen, Na, 2024. "Does old-age security promote rural residents' consumption? A decomposition based on contribution and replacement rates," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 817-830.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pension wealth; Covid pandemic; Fiscal costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lajcba:v:5:y:2024:i:3:s2666143824000048. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/latin-american-journal-of-central-banking .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.