IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jrinsu/v88y2021i4p903-936.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effects of COVID‐19 early release of pension funds: The case of Chile

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel Lorca

Abstract

Amid the extraordinary economic effects of COVID‐19, some policymakers have turned to retirement accounts to support individuals in financial hardship. Given the haste, the long‐term impacts and their heterogeneity have scarcely been analyzed. Using Monte Carlo simulations on the Chilean Social Protection Survey linked with administrative data, this study quantifies the effects of a 10% early release of pension funds. Each withdrawn dollar brings losses of 1.59 dollars in future retirement savings, reducing monthly pension benefits by 7.26%. This policy raises income inadequacy and inequality in retirement, increasing government expenditure by 4.33% to counteract these effects for 65‐year‐old retirees. We propose four policies to mitigate these effects and address the current challenges of most defined contribution pension schemes. Increasing contributions combined with an intragenerational solidarity component shows the biggest impacts. Contribution enforcement, reducing tax evasion, and delaying retirement by at least 1 year via incentives have lower but significant effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Lorca, 2021. "Effects of COVID‐19 early release of pension funds: The case of Chile," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(4), pages 903-936, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:88:y:2021:i:4:p:903-936
    DOI: 10.1111/jori.12365
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jori.12365
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jori.12365?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lehmann, Etienne & Marical, François & Rioux, Laurence, 2013. "Labor income responds differently to income-tax and payroll-tax reforms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 66-84.
    2. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    3. Saez, Emmanuel, 2003. "The effect of marginal tax rates on income: a panel study of 'bracket creep'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(5-6), pages 1231-1258, May.
    4. Peter Diamond & Nicholas Barr, 2006. "(UBS Pensions Series 041) The Economics of Pensions," FMG Discussion Papers dp563, Financial Markets Group.
    5. Eduardo Morón & Edgar Salgado & Cristhian Seminario, 2012. "Financial Dependence, Formal Credit and Firm Informality: Evidence from Peruvian Household Data," Research Department Publications 4776, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    6. Nicholas Barr & Peter Diamond, 2006. "The Economics of Pensions," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 22(1), pages 15-39, Spring.
    7. Berndt, Ernst R & Christensen, Laurits R, 1974. "Testing for the Existence of a Consistent Aggregate Index of Labor Inputs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 391-404, June.
    8. Loayza,Norman V., 2018. "Informality : Why Is It So Widespread and How Can It Be Reduced?," Research and Policy Briefs 133110, The World Bank.
    9. Hernæs, Erik & Markussen, Simen & Piggott, John & Røed, Knut, 2016. "Pension reform and labor supply," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 39-55.
    10. Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Martin B. Knudsen & Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Søren Pedersen & Emmanuel Saez, 2011. "Unwilling or Unable to Cheat? Evidence From a Tax Audit Experiment in Denmark," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 651-692, May.
    11. Joakim Westerlund & Paresh Narayan, 2015. "Testing for Predictability in Conditionally Heteroskedastic Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 342-375.
    12. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Stock return forecasting: Some new evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 38-51.
    13. Austan Goolsbee, 2000. "What Happens When You Tax the Rich? Evidence from Executive Compensation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 352-378, April.
    14. Néstor Gandelman & Alejandro Rasteletti, 2016. "The Impact of Bank Credit on Employment Formality: Evidence from Uruguay," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(7), pages 1661-1678, July.
    15. Robert Argento & Victoria L. Bryant & John Sabelhaus, 2015. "Early Withdrawals From Retirement Accounts During The Great Recession," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 1-16, January.
    16. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 47-89, January.
    17. Eduardo Morón & Edgar Salgado & Cristhian Seminario, 2012. "Financial Dependence, Formal Credit and Firm Informality: Evidence from Peruvian Household Data," Research Department Publications 4776, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    18. Laitner, John & Silverman, Dan, 2012. "Consumption, retirement and social security: Evaluating the efficiency of reform that encourages longer careers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(7-8), pages 615-634.
    19. Josef Falkinger & Herbert Walther, 1991. "Rewards Versus Penalties: on a New Policy against Tax Evasion," Public Finance Review, , vol. 19(1), pages 67-79, January.
    20. Hurd, Michael & Panis, Constantijn, 2006. "The choice to cash out pension rights at job change or retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(12), pages 2213-2227, December.
    21. Rene Boheim & Thomas Nice, 2019. "The effect of early retirement schemes on youth employment," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-70, October.
    22. Roberto Ricciuti, 2003. "Assessing Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 55-78, February.
    23. Watson, Harry, 1985. "Tax evasion and labor markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 231-246, July.
    24. Eric French & John Jones, 2012. "Public pensions and labor supply over the life cycle," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(2), pages 268-287, April.
    25. Engelhardt, Gary V., 2002. "Pre-Retirement Lump-Sum Pension Distributions and Retirement Income Security: Evidence From the Health and Retirement Study," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 55(4), pages 665-685, December.
    26. Laun, Lisa, 2017. "The effect of age-targeted tax credits on labor force participation of older workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 102-118.
    27. Albanese, Andrea & Cockx, Bart, 2019. "Permanent wage cost subsidies for older workers. An effective tool for employment retention and postponing early retirement?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 145-166.
    28. Marios Karabarbounis, 2016. "A Road Map for Efficiently Taxing Heterogeneous Agents," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 182-214, April.
    29. Berstein, Solange & Fuentes, Olga & Villatoro, Félix, 2013. "Default investment strategies in a defined contribution pension system: a pension risk model application for the chilean case," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 379-414, October.
    30. (IFS), Institute for Fiscal Studies (ed.), 2010. "Dimensions of Tax Design: The Mirrlees Review," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199553754.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang-Ly, Nathan & Newell, Ben R., 2022. "Allowing early access to retirement savings: Lessons from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 716-733.
    2. Alejandra Inzunza & Carlos Madeira, 2023. "The impact of the Covid Pension Fund Withdrawals in Chile on the future retirement income of the Social Security affiliates and their households," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 991, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Izquierdo, Alejandro & Robles, Edgar A. & Tapia Troncoso, Waldo, 2024. "Reshaping Retirement: Navigating Latin America’s Pension Systems after COVID-19," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 13540, December.
    4. Bateman, Hazel & Dobrescu, Loretti I. & Liu, Junhao & Newell, Ben R. & Thorp, Susan, 2023. "Determinants of early-access to retirement savings: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    5. López, Fernando & Rosas, Guillermo, 2022. "COVID-19 and attitudes towards early withdrawal of pension funds: The role of trust and political ideology," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    6. Olivera, Javier & Valderrama, José A., 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Future Pensions of the Peruvian Pension System," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12492, Inter-American Development Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carina Neisser, 2021. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income: A Meta-Regression Analysis [The top 1% in international and historical perspective]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(640), pages 3365-3391.
    2. Woodland, A., 2016. "Taxation, Pensions, and Demographic Change," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 713-780, Elsevier.
    3. Derek Messacar, 2022. "Labor Supply Responses to Income Taxation among Older Couples: Evidence from a Canadian Reform," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 10, Institut sur la retraite et l'épargne / Retirement and Savings Institute.
    4. Johan Gustafsson, 2021. "Age-Targeted Income Taxation, Labor Supply, and Retirement," CESifo Working Paper Series 8988, CESifo.
    5. Soren Blomquist & Anil Kumar & Che-Yuan Liang & Whitney K. Newey, 2022. "Nonlinear Budget Set Regressions for the Random Utility Model," Working Papers 2219, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Malkova, Olga, 2020. "Did Soviet elderly employment respond to financial incentives? Evidence from pension reforms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    7. Julian Diaz Saavedra, 2013. "Age-dependent Taxation, Retirement Behavior, and Work Hours Over the Life Cycle," ThE Papers 13/09, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    8. Adam, Stuart & Phillips, David & Roantree, Barra, 2019. "35 years of reforms: A panel analysis of the incidence of, and employee and employer responses to, social security contributions in the UK," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 29-50.
    9. Jones, John Bailey & Li, Yue, 2018. "The effects of collecting income taxes on Social Security benefits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 128-145.
    10. Michaël Sicsic, 2022. "Does labour income react more to income tax or means‐tested benefits reforms?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 291-319, September.
    11. Sumit Agarwal & Jessica Pan & Wenlan Qian, 2020. "Age of Decision: Pension Savings Withdrawal and Consumption and Debt Response," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 43-69, January.
    12. Jakobsen, Katrine Marie & Søgaard, Jakob Egholt, 2022. "Identifying behavioral responses to tax reforms: New insights and a new approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    13. López, Fernando & Rosas, Guillermo, 2022. "COVID-19 and attitudes towards early withdrawal of pension funds: The role of trust and political ideology," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    14. Jos順鬩x Sanz-Sanz & Mar𨁁rrazola-Vacas & Nuria Rueda-L󰥺 & Desiderio Romero-Jordᮠ, 2015. "Reported gross income and marginal tax rates: estimation of the behavioural reactions of Spanish taxpayers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 466-484, January.
    15. Gustafsson, Johan, 2024. "Favorable tax treatment of older workers in general equilibrium," Umeå Economic Studies 1023, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    16. Gustafsson, Johan, 2021. "Age-Targeted Income Taxation, Labor Supply, and Retirement," Umeå Economic Studies 985, Umeå University, Department of Economics, revised 01 Mar 2021.
    17. Salisu, Afees A. & Ademuyiwa, Idris & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Revisiting the forecasting accuracy of Phillips curve: The role of oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 334-356.
    18. European Commission, 2013. "Tax reforms in EU Member States - Tax policy challenges for economic growth and fiscal sustainability – 2013 Report," Taxation Papers 38, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    19. Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2017. "Health, Health Insurance, and Retirement: A Survey," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 383-409, September.
    20. Guy Lacroix & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2024. "Tax Incentives and Older Workers: Evidence from Canada," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 02, Chaire de recherche Jacques-Parizeau en politiques économiques / Jacques-Parizeau Research Chair in Economic Policy.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:88:y:2021:i:4:p:903-936. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ariaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.