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Explaining the cyclical volatility of consumer debt risk using a heterogeneous agents model: The case of Chile

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  • Madeira, Carlos

Abstract

Previous studies of consumer debt risk estimate low sensitivities to negative shocks, contradicting the historical data. This work proposes a heterogeneous agents model of household finances and credit risk. Families suffer labor income shocks and choose from a menu of loans contracts, defaulting on debt commitments when unable to finance minimum consumption standards. Using a variety of survey data I simulate household credit default for Chile over the last 20 years, replicating successfully the highs and lows of consumer delinquency. Some households are shown to be highly vulnerable to changes in interest rates, credit maturities and liquidity.

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  • Madeira, Carlos, 2018. "Explaining the cyclical volatility of consumer debt risk using a heterogeneous agents model: The case of Chile," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 209-220.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:39:y:2018:i:c:p:209-220
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2017.03.005
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Madeira, Carlos, 2019. "Measuring the covariance risk of consumer debt portfolios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 21-38.
    2. Carlos Madeira, 2019. "Computing population weights for the EFH survey," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 22(1), pages 004-026, April.
    3. Carlos Madeira, 2022. "The double impact of deep social unrest and a pandemic: Evidence from Chile," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 135-171, February.
    4. Sof'a Gallardo & Carlos Madeira, 2022. "The role of financial surveys for economic research and policy making in emerging markets," Chapters, in: Duc K. Nguyen (ed.), Handbook of Banking and Finance in Emerging Markets, chapter 36, pages 676-686, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Carlos Madeira, 2020. "The impact of information laws on consumer credit access: evidence from Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 873, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Madeira, Carlos, 2019. "The impact of interest rate ceilings on households’ credit access: Evidence from a 2013 Chilean legislation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 166-179.
    7. Tomasz Korol, 2024. "Multi-factor fuzzy sets decision system forecasting consumer insolvency risk," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 51(3), pages 279-302, September.
    8. Tomasz Korol, 2021. "Evaluation of the Macro- and Micro-Economic Factors Affecting the Financial Energy of Households," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-14, June.
    9. Madeira, Carlos, 2021. "The potential impact of financial portability measures on mortgage refinancing: Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    10. Madeira, Carlos, 2021. "The long term impact of Chilean policy reforms on savings and pensions," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    11. Carlos Madeira, 2023. "Adverse selection, loan access and default behavior in the Chilean consumer debt market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, December.
    12. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Felipe Martínez, 2020. "Over-indebtedness in Households: Measurement and Determinants," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 869, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Cifuentes, Rodrigo & Margaretic, Paula & Saavedra, Trinidad, 2020. "Measuring households' financial vulnerabilities from consumer debt: Evidence from Chile," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    14. Madeira, Carlos, 2023. "The evolution of consumption inequality and risk-insurance in Chile," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit supply; Consumer credit; Default risk; Business cycle fluctuations; Unemployment shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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