IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v126y2022ics0261560622000535.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of the Chilean pension withdrawals during the Covid pandemic on the future savings rate

Author

Listed:
  • Madeira, Carlos

Abstract

Chile implemented pension withdrawals during the pandemic at a much larger scale than other OECD countries. Estimating a life cycle model with survey data, I find that households consume a significant fraction of their non-contributory pension wealth, implying a tradeoff between improving public pensions and increasing savings. Counterfactual simulations show that the pandemic pension withdrawals may decrease the future savings rate by 1.7%. Furthermore, policy reforms may decrease the aggregate savings rate by 0.2% for each percentage point of solidarity tax from current workers. The solidarity taxes increase substantially the pension income of poor retirees, but their effects decline over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Madeira, Carlos, 2022. "The impact of the Chilean pension withdrawals during the Covid pandemic on the future savings rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:126:y:2022:i:c:s0261560622000535
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102650
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560622000535
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102650?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio Choice over the Life‐Cycle when the Stock and Labor Markets Are Cointegrated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2123-2167, October.
    2. Madeira, Carlos, 2019. "The impact of interest rate ceilings on households’ credit access: Evidence from a 2013 Chilean legislation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 166-179.
    3. David I. Laibson & Andrea Repetto & Jeremy Tobacman, 1998. "Self-Control and Saving for Retirement," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 91-196.
    4. Néstor Gandelman, 2017. "Do the rich save more in Latin America?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 15(1), pages 75-92, March.
    5. Philip Barrett & Mariia Bondar & Sophia Chen & Mali Chivakul & Deniz Igan, 2024. "Pricing protest: the response of financial markets to social unrest," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1419-1450.
    6. Carlos Madeira, 2022. "The double impact of deep social unrest and a pandemic: Evidence from Chile," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 135-171, February.
    7. Tsunao Okumura & Emiko Usui, 2014. "The effect of pension reform on pension-benefit expectations and savings decisions in Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(14), pages 1677-1691, May.
    8. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 47-89, January.
    9. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 2010. "Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 693-751, September.
    10. Catalina Amuedo‐Dorantes & Laura Juarez & Jorge Alonso, 2019. "The Effect Of Noncontributory Pensions On Saving In Mexico," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 931-952, April.
    11. Mr. Lorenzo E. Bernal-Verdugo & Davide Furceri & Mr. Dominique M. Guillaume, 2013. "The Dynamic Effect of Social and Political Instability on Output: The Role of Reforms," IMF Working Papers 2013/091, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Christopher D. Carroll, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55.
    13. Kristjanpoller, Werner D. & Olson, Josephine E., 2021. "The effect of market returns and volatility on investment choices in Chile’s defined contribution retirement plan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    14. Alonso-Ortiz, Jorge, 2014. "Social security and retirement across the OECD," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 300-316.
    15. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
    16. Orazio P. Attanasio & Agar Brugiavini, 2003. "Social Security and Households' Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 1075-1119.
    17. Berstein, Solange & Fuentes, Olga & Villatoro, Félix, 2013. "Default investment strategies in a defined contribution pension system: a pension risk model application for the chilean case," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 379-414, October.
    18. Carlos Madeira, 2015. "Identification of Earning Dynamics using Rotating Samples over Short Periods: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 754, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Madeira, Carlos, 2021. "The potential impact of financial portability measures on mortgage refinancing: Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    20. Madeira, Carlos, 2019. "Measuring the covariance risk of consumer debt portfolios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 21-38.
    21. William G. Gale, 1998. "The Effects of Pensions on Household Wealth: A Reevaluation of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(4), pages 706-723, August.
    22. Rodrigo Cerda & Rodrigo Fuentes & Gonzalo García & José I. Llodrá, 2020. "Understanding domestic savings: an empirical approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(9), pages 905-928, February.
    23. Orazio P. Attanasio & Susann Rohwedder, 2003. "Pension Wealth and Household Saving: Evidence from Pension Reforms in the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1499-1521, December.
    24. Ling-Ni Boon & Marie Brière & Sandra Rigot, 2018. "Regulation and Pension Fund Risk-Taking," Post-Print hal-02315479, HAL.
    25. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942.
    26. Marika Santoro, 2017. "Pension Reform Options in Chile: Some Tradeoffs," IMF Working Papers 2017/053, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Karen E. Dynan & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2004. "Do the Rich Save More?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(2), pages 397-444, April.
    28. Juan C. Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1999. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 757-795, October.
    29. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Tomás Serebrisky & Verónica Frisancho & Jonathan Karver & Andrew Powell & Diego Margot & Ancor Suárez-Alemán & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Matías Marzani & Solange Berstein & Marian, 2016. "Saving for Development: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Save More and Better," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 94597 edited by Eduardo A. Cavallo & Tomás Serebrisky, February.
    30. Boon, L.N. & Brière, M. & Rigot, S., 2018. "Regulation and pension fund risk-taking," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 23-41.
    31. Patrick Blagrave & Marika Santoro, 2017. "Labor Force Participation in Chile: Recent Trends, Drivers, and Prospects," IMF Working Papers 2017/054, International Monetary Fund.
    32. repec:idb:brikps:7677 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Weimin & Chen, Na, 2024. "Does old-age security promote rural residents' consumption? A decomposition based on contribution and replacement rates," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 817-830.
    2. Izquierdo, Alejandro & Robles, Edgar A. & Tapia Troncoso, Waldo, 2024. "Reshaping Retirement: Navigating Latin America’s Pension Systems after COVID-19," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 13540, December.
    3. Enzo Cerletti & Magdalena Cortina & Alejandra Inzunza & Felipe Martínez & Patricio Toro, 2024. "The finances of Chilean households during the pandemic: an assessment from the 2021 Household Financial Survey," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 1008, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Olivera, Javier & Valderrama, José A., 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Future Pensions of the Peruvian Pension System," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12492, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Carlos Madeira, 2023. "Adverse selection, loan access and default behavior in the Chilean consumer debt market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, December.
    6. Carlos Madeira, 2023. "The evolution of macroprudential policy use in Chile, Latin America and the OECD," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 357-380, September.
    7. Guiling Zhao & Yunpeng Fu & Deyu Zhou, 2024. "Study on the Impact of China’s Pension Insurance System on the Savings Rate of Urban Residents Based on the Preventive Saving Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-23, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Madeira, Carlos, 2021. "The long term impact of Chilean policy reforms on savings and pensions," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    2. Madeira, Carlos, 2023. "The evolution of consumption inequality and risk-insurance in Chile," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Blau, David M., 2011. "Pensions, Household Saving, and Welfare: A Dynamic Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 5554, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Carlos Madeira, 2022. "The double impact of deep social unrest and a pandemic: Evidence from Chile," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 135-171, February.
    5. Binswanger, Johannes, 2012. "Life cycle saving: Insights from the perspective of bounded rationality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 605-623.
    6. Alessie, Rob & Angelini, Viola & van Santen, Peter, 2013. "Pension wealth and household savings in Europe: Evidence from SHARELIFE," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 308-328.
    7. Alessie, R.J.M. & Angelini, V. & van Santen, P.C., 2012. "Pension wealth and household savings in Europe," Research Report 12012-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    8. repec:dgr:rugsom:12012-eef is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Sita Slavov & Devon Gorry & Aspen Gorry & Frank N. Caliendo, 2019. "Social Security and Saving: An Update," Public Finance Review, , vol. 47(2), pages 312-348, March.
    10. Lukasz Rachel & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
    11. Ricardo Bebczuk & Leonardo Gasparini & Noelia Garbero & Julian Amendolaggine, 2015. "Understanding the Determinants of Household Saving: Micro Evidence for Latin America," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0189, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    12. Jing You & Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa, 2019. "The Intergenerational Impact of China's New Rural Pension Scheme," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(S1), pages 47-95, December.
    13. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Sagiri Kitao, 2010. "Social Security, benefit claiming, and labor force participation: a quantitative general equilibrium approach," Staff Reports 436, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    15. José Luis Iparraguirre, 2020. "Economics and Ageing," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-29019-1, June.
    16. Julia Le Blanc & Alessandro Porpiglia & Federica Teppa & Junyi Zhu & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2014. "Household saving behaviour and credit constraints in the euro area," BCL working papers 93, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    17. Jing You & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, 2017. "Smoothing or strengthening the 'Great Gatsby curve'?: The intergenerational impact of China's New Rural Pension Scheme," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-199, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Junya Hamaaki, 2013. "The Pension System and Household Consumption and Saving Behavior," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 687-716, September.
    19. Carlos Madeira, 2024. "The effect of Covid pension withdrawals and the Universal Guaranteed Pension on the income of future retirees in Chile," BIS Working Papers 1176, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Lindeboom, Maarten & Montizaan, Raymond, 2020. "Disentangling retirement and savings responses," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    21. Van de Ven, Justin, 2011. "Do Defined Contribution Pensions Correct for Short-Sighted Savings Decisions? Evidence from the UK," Papers WP399, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Savings; Pension wealth; Life cycle; Crowding-out; Covid pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:126:y:2022:i:c:s0261560622000535. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.