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The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty in Latin America on the Spanish economy

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  • Ghirelli, Corinna
  • Pérez, Javier J.
  • Urtasun, Alberto

Abstract

We construct economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indexes for a number of Latin American (LA) economies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela) and the region as a whole, based on reports in the Spanish press. Our measures are comparable across countries. We study the macroeconomic effects of LA EPU shocks on the analyzed American economies and the Spanish economy. To study the international spillover effects on the Spanish economy, we carry out two exercises by means of vector auto-regression models. First, we estimate responses to unexpected shocks in LA EPU of the quotations of Spanish companies which are highly exposed to Latin America. Second, we study the impact of LA EPU shocks on Spanish macroeconomic aggregates. Unexpected shocks in LA EPU significantly dampen commercial relationships between Spain and LA countries. Spanish firms decrease their exports and foreign direct investments in LA countries that experience negative shocks in EPU.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghirelli, Corinna & Pérez, Javier J. & Urtasun, Alberto, 2021. "The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty in Latin America on the Spanish economy," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lajcba:v:2:y:2021:i:2:s2666143821000090
    DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2021.100029
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramírez-Orihuela, Mitzi Vania & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2024. "Impacto del covid-19 en la actividad económica y en la incertidumbre de política económica: un enfoque de datos panel para una muestra de países de América Latina [Impact of covid-19 on economic ac," MPRA Paper 119668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Erik Andres-Escayola & Corinna Ghirelli & Luis Molina & Javier J. Pérez & Elena Vidal, 2022. "Using newspapers for textual indicators: which and how many?," Working Papers 2235, Banco de España.
    3. Departamento de Economía Internacional y Área del Euro, 2021. "Report on the Latin American Economy. Second half of 2021. Outlook, vulnerabilities and policy space," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 4/2021.
    4. Zhou, Yuqin & Liu, Zhenhua & Wu, Shan, 2022. "The global economic policy uncertainty spillover analysis: In the background of COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Quelhas, João, 2022. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and its impact on the real economy: Empirical Evidence from the Euro area," MPRA Paper 113621, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2022.
    6. Guo, Junjie & Li, Youshu & Shao, Qinglong, 2022. "Cross-category spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty between China and the US: Time and frequency evidence," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Erik Andres-Escayola & Corinna Ghirelli & Luis Molina & Javier J. Perez & Elena Vidal, 2024. "Using Newspapers for Textual Indicators: Guidance Based on Spanish- and Portuguese-Speaking Countries," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 643-692, August.
    8. Kai‐Hua Wang & Zu‐Shan Wang & Hong‐Wen Liu & Xin Li, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk: evidence from China and Southeast Asia," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(2), pages 96-118, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty; Uncertainty shocks; Latin America's economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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