IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/juipol/v82y2023ics0957178723000784.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Developing sustainable power systems by evaluating techno-economic, environmental, and social indicators from a system dynamics approach

Author

Listed:
  • Karbasioun, Matin
  • Gholamalipour, Afshin
  • Safaie, Nasser
  • Shirazizadeh, Rasool
  • Amidpour, Majid

Abstract

The transition from fossil fuel-based energy systems to renewable energy systems (RES), especially in fossil-fuel-rich countries, is a challenging process requiring consideration of numerous factors, including technological feasibility, cost-effectiveness, and public acceptance. As governments play a crucial role in determining energy and environmental policy, developing practical policymaking tools encourages them to stimulate the adoption of renewable energy technology. This study proposes a novel framework to model an energy system transition focused on the power generation and its dynamic behavior of fossil-fuel-rich countries using the System Dynamics (SD) approach and then assesses the techno-economic and environmental impacts of various economic, technical, and environmental policies using the Multi-Criteria Decision-Analysis technique (MCDA). This study aims to compare the development of renewable technologies development versus improving the current technology efficiency under three different “business as usual,” “basic development,” and “advanced development” scenarios by assessing economic, environmental, and social indicators over the horizon of 2016–2040 in fossil-rich-fuel countries. The proposed framework was applied to Iran, a fossil-fuel-rich country. According to the case study results, in all of the defined policies under three scenarios, the improvement of fossil fuel technologies received the highest score indicating that improvement in the efficiency of the current energy system by utilizing combined cycle systems is an inevitable step. Taking into account the water shortage in Iran, the second crucial stage is the implementation of water-efficient renewable technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Karbasioun, Matin & Gholamalipour, Afshin & Safaie, Nasser & Shirazizadeh, Rasool & Amidpour, Majid, 2023. "Developing sustainable power systems by evaluating techno-economic, environmental, and social indicators from a system dynamics approach," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:82:y:2023:i:c:s0957178723000784
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2023.101566
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178723000784
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jup.2023.101566?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bamooeifard, Alireza, 2020. "Future studies in Iran development plans for wind power, a system dynamics modeling approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1054-1064.
    2. Mohapatra, D.K. & Mohanakrishnan, P., 2010. "A methodology for the assessment of nuclear power development scenario," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4330-4338, August.
    3. Aryanpur, Vahid & Atabaki, Mohammad Saeid & Marzband, Mousa & Siano, Pierluigi & Ghayoumi, Kiarash, 2019. "An overview of energy planning in Iran and transition pathways towards sustainable electricity supply sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 58-74.
    4. Strachan, Neil & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2008. "Hybrid modelling of long-term carbon reduction scenarios for the UK," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2947-2963, November.
    5. Sadeghi, Mehdi & Mirshojaeian Hosseini, Hossein, 2008. "Integrated energy planning for transportation sector--A case study for Iran with techno-economic approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 850-866, February.
    6. Chaube, Anshuman & Chapman, Andrew & Minami, Akari & Stubbins, James & Huff, Kathryn D., 2021. "The role of current and emerging technologies in meeting Japan’s mid- to long-term carbon reduction goals," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    7. Gary, Shayne & Larsen, Erik Reimer, 2000. "Improving firm performance in out-of-equilibrium, deregulated markets using feedback simulation models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 845-855, October.
    8. Yoram Wind & Thomas L. Saaty, 1980. "Marketing Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(7), pages 641-658, July.
    9. Pina, André & Silva, Carlos A. & Ferrão, Paulo, 2013. "High-resolution modeling framework for planning electricity systems with high penetration of renewables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 215-223.
    10. Saaty, Thomas L., 1990. "How to make a decision: The analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 9-26, September.
    11. Lekavičius, Vidas & Galinis, Arvydas & Miškinis, Vaclovas, 2019. "Long-term economic impacts of energy development scenarios: The role of domestic electricity generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Shmelev, Stanislav E. & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2016. "Optimal diversity of renewable energy alternatives under multiple criteria: An application to the UK," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 679-691.
    13. Atabaki, Mohammad Saeid & Aryanpur, Vahid, 2018. "Multi-objective optimization for sustainable development of the power sector: An economic, environmental, and social analysis of Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 493-507.
    14. Fairuz, S.M.C. & Sulaiman, M.Y. & Lim, C.H. & Mat, S. & Ali, B. & Saadatian, O. & Ruslan, M.H. & Salleh, E. & Sopian, K., 2013. "Long term strategy for electricity generation in Peninsular Malaysia – Analysis of cost and carbon footprint using MESSAGE," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 493-502.
    15. Sim, Jaehun & Kim, Chae-Soo, 2019. "The value of renewable energy research and development investments with default consideration," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 530-539.
    16. Hsu, Chiung-Wen, 2012. "Using a system dynamics model to assess the effects of capital subsidies and feed-in tariffs on solar PV installations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 205-217.
    17. Olsina, Fernando & Garces, Francisco & Haubrich, H.-J., 2006. "Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 1411-1433, August.
    18. Amirnekooei, K. & Ardehali, M.M. & Sadri, A., 2012. "Integrated resource planning for Iran: Development of reference energy system, forecast, and long-term energy-environment plan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 374-385.
    19. Dianat, Fateme & Khodakarami, Vahid & Hosseini, Seyed-Hossein & Shakouri G, Hamed, 2022. "Combining game theory concepts and system dynamics for evaluating renewable electricity development in fossil-fuel-rich countries in the Middle East and North Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 805-821.
    20. Glynn, James & Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Deane, J.P. & Bazilian, Morgan & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Energy Security Analysis: The case of constrained oil supply for Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 312-325.
    21. AlFarra, Hasan Jamil & Abu-Hijleh, Bassam, 2012. "The potential role of nuclear energy in mitigating CO2 emissions in the United Arab Emirates," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 272-285.
    22. Kiani, Behdad & Ali Pourfakhraei, Mohammad, 2010. "A system dynamic model for production and consumption policy in Iran oil and gas sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7764-7774, December.
    23. Castaneda, Monica & Zapata, Sebastian & Cherni, Judith & Aristizabal, Andres J. & Dyner, Isaac, 2020. "The long-term effects of cautious feed-in tariff reductions on photovoltaic generation in the UK residential sector," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1432-1443.
    24. Park, Jung-Yeon & Ahn, Nam-Sung & Yoon, Yong-Beum & Koh, Kyung-Ho & Bunn, Derek W., 2007. "Investment incentives in the Korean electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5819-5828, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yuuki Yoshimoto & Koki Kishimoto & Kanchan Kumar Sen & Takako Mochida & Andrew Chapman, 2023. "Toward Economically Efficient Carbon Reduction: Contrasting Greening Plastic Supply Chains with Alternative Energy Policy Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-19, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aryanpur, Vahid & Atabaki, Mohammad Saeid & Marzband, Mousa & Siano, Pierluigi & Ghayoumi, Kiarash, 2019. "An overview of energy planning in Iran and transition pathways towards sustainable electricity supply sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 58-74.
    2. Ahmad, Salman & Mat Tahar, Razman & Muhammad-Sukki, Firdaus & Munir, Abu Bakar & Abdul Rahim, Ruzairi, 2016. "Application of system dynamics approach in electricity sector modelling: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 29-37.
    3. Aryanpur, Vahid & Shafiei, Ehsan, 2015. "Optimal deployment of renewable electricity technologies in Iran and implications for emissions reductions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 882-893.
    4. Dianat, Fateme & Khodakarami, Vahid & Hosseini, Seyed-Hossein & Shakouri G, Hamed, 2022. "Combining game theory concepts and system dynamics for evaluating renewable electricity development in fossil-fuel-rich countries in the Middle East and North Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 805-821.
    5. Teufel, Felix & Miller, Michael & Genoese, Massimo & Fichtner, Wolf, 2013. "Review of System Dynamics models for electricity market simulations," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 2, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    6. Hasani-Marzooni, Masoud & Hosseini, Seyed Hamid, 2013. "Dynamic analysis of various investment incentives and regional capacity assignment in Iranian electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 271-284.
    7. Hasani, Masoud & Hosseini, Seyed Hamid, 2011. "Dynamic assessment of capacity investment in electricity market considering complementary capacity mechanisms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 277-293.
    8. Aryanpur, V. & Ghahremani, M. & Mamipour, S. & Fattahi, M. & Ó Gallachóir, B. & Bazilian, M.D. & Glynn, J., 2022. "Ex-post analysis of energy subsidy removal through integrated energy systems modelling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    9. Simsek, Yeliz & Sahin, Hasret & Lorca, Álvaro & Santika, Wayan G. & Urmee, Tania & Escobar, Rodrigo, 2020. "Comparison of energy scenario alternatives for Chile: Towards low-carbon energy transition by 2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    10. Ibanez-Lopez, A.S. & Martinez-Val, J.M. & Moratilla-Soria, B.Y., 2017. "A dynamic simulation model for assessing the overall impact of incentive policies on power system reliability, costs and environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 170-188.
    11. Bilgili, Faik & Zarali, Fulya & Ilgün, Miraç Fatih & Dumrul, Cüneyt & Dumrul, Yasemin, 2022. "The evaluation of renewable energy alternatives for sustainable development in Turkey using ‌intuitionistic‌ ‌fuzzy‌-TOPSIS method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 1443-1458.
    12. Hary, Nicolas & Rious, Vincent & Saguan, Marcelo, 2016. "The electricity generation adequacy problem: Assessing dynamic effects of capacity remuneration mechanisms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 113-127.
    13. Dehghan, Hamed & Amin-Naseri, Mohammad Reza & Nahavandi, Nasim, 2021. "A system dynamics model to analyze future electricity supply and demand in Iran under alternative pricing policies," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    14. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    15. V. Srinivasan & G. Shainesh & Anand K. Sharma, 2015. "An approach to prioritize customer-based, cost-effective service enhancements," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(14), pages 747-762, October.
    16. Kik, M.C. & Claassen, G.D.H. & Meuwissen, M.P.M. & Smit, A.B. & Saatkamp, H.W., 2021. "Actor analysis for sustainable soil management – A case study from the Netherlands," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    17. Choudhary, Devendra & Shankar, Ravi, 2012. "An STEEP-fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS framework for evaluation and selection of thermal power plant location: A case study from India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 510-521.
    18. Madjid Tavana & Mariya Sodenkamp & Leena Suhl, 2010. "A soft multi-criteria decision analysis model with application to the European Union enlargement," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 181(1), pages 393-421, December.
    19. Alpana Agarwal & Divina Raghav, 2023. "Analysing Determinants of Employee Performance Based on Reverse Mentoring and Employer Branding Using Analytic Hierarchical Process," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 48(3), pages 343-358, August.
    20. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:82:y:2023:i:c:s0957178723000784. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/utilities-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.