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The time-varying impact of geopolitical relations on rare earth trade networks: What is the role of China's rare earth export restrictions?

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  • Zhang, Hongwei
  • Cao, Hualin
  • Guo, Yaoqi

Abstract

This paper constructs the rare earth industry chain trade networks and geopolitical relationship networks including cooperation and conflict network, and analyzes the evolution trend of each network. Then we use the time-exponential random graph model to investigate the dynamic influence of geopolitical relationship on rare earth trade and analyze the heterogeneity impacts of cooperation and conflict on rare earth industrial chain. Finally, the impact of China's rare earths export restriction policy on the relationship was explored. The results are as follows: (1) Geopolitical events have occurred frequently among countries and exchanges in the rare earth trade market have become increasingly close; (2) The cooperation network will promote the formation of the rare earth trade relationship of the whole industrial chain, while the conflict network will inhibit the formation of the rare earth trade relationship, and the impact on the upstream, midstream and downstream of the rare earth industry chain is heterogeneous; (3) The rare earth export restriction policy implemented by China in 2011 has expanded the influence of geopolitical relations on the rare earth trade network. This study is of great significance for the country to cope with the impact of geopolitical risks and safeguard the security of rare earth.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Hongwei & Cao, Hualin & Guo, Yaoqi, 2024. "The time-varying impact of geopolitical relations on rare earth trade networks: What is the role of China's rare earth export restrictions?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:206:y:2024:i:c:s0040162524003469
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123550
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