How do mineral resources and financial expenditure influence sustainable environment? Exploring the role of social globalization and trade policy uncertainty in China

Environmental sustainability has emerged as a central focus in policy agendas. Recognizing key factors that hinder ecological preservation is imperative. Many studies have evaluated terrestrial-based emissions to measure environmental performance; however, a few emphasized consumption-based carbon emissions (CCE). Our study delves into uncovering the asymmetric impact of natural resources, globalization, financial expenditures, and trade policy uncertainty on CCE in China. We analyze quarterly data spanning from Q1-2000 to Q4-2020, employing the quantile autoregressive distributed lag (Q-ARDL) framework. This method helps identify asymmetric long-term cointegration and causality across various emissions quantiles. Our long-term estimation reveals that globalization, natural resources, and uncertain trade policies spur CCE across diverse quantiles, especially at higher emissions levels (0.75–0.95). Similarly, financial expenditures amplify CCE, exhibiting a more pronounced positive effect at lower to mid-level quantiles (0.05–0.50). Short-term coefficients exhibit varying significance and magnitudes across different levels. In addition, quantile causality highlights a one-way causal relationship between all variables except economic growth, natural resources. The findings provide valuable policy implications to all stakeholders in China.