IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v86y2023ipbs0301420723008024.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research on the low carbon development path of China's coal industry under carbon peaking & carbon neutral target: Based on the RCPs-SSPs framework

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Yujie
  • Sun, Qingqing
  • Wu, Jingjun
  • Han, Shuai
  • Zhang, Ruonan
  • Jiang, Shiyan
  • Gu, Xiao

Abstract

Coal industry is one of the important engines of China's economic development and one of the key units in advancing the goal of CO2 peaking and CO2 neutrality. This study systematically measured the CO2 emissions of coal resources at the stages of mining and washing, transportation, processing and conversion, and consumption and utilization from a whole life cycle perspective, analyzed the drivers of CO2 emissions using the Kaya-LMDI model, and set up scenarios based on the RCPs-SSPs framework to explore the CO2 peaking paths. The specific findings were as follows. (1) The CO2 emissions of this industry increased from 2224.62 Mt to 7676.63 Mt from 2000 to 2020, an annual increase 6.39%. Among them, the processing and conversion stage is the main contributor to the CO2 emission, and its CO2 emission increases from 1296.23 Mt to 5003.65 Mt, an annual increase 6.99%. (2) Industrial structure, energy efficiency, and energy structure factors showed negative inhibitory effects on CO2 emissions in this industry. Further, from the trend of the driving effects of each factor, the inhibitory effects of industrial structure and energy structure on CO2 emissions showed an increasing trend, and the inhibitory effects of energy efficiency on CO2 emissions showed an increasing trend followed by a decreasing trend. (3) The results of the scenario analysis showed that the sustainability-oriented scenario is the low-carbon development state that this industry can achieve through more comprehensive and active initiatives in achieving the expected socio-economic development goals, and it is also a relatively reasonable path to achieve CO2 peak and CO2 neutrality. Under this scenario, the total CO2 emission of China's coal industry in 2030 reaches 10.044 billion tons, which is 1.083 billion tons less than that of the status quo continuation scenario in 2030, and the CO2 reduction effect is obvious. These findings can provide a reference for the improvement of low-carbon development policies in the coal industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Yujie & Sun, Qingqing & Wu, Jingjun & Han, Shuai & Zhang, Ruonan & Jiang, Shiyan & Gu, Xiao, 2023. "Research on the low carbon development path of China's coal industry under carbon peaking & carbon neutral target: Based on the RCPs-SSPs framework," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:86:y:2023:i:pb:s0301420723008024
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104091
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420723008024
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104091?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yunfei An & Dequn Zhou & Qunwei Wang, 2022. "Carbon emission reduction potential and its influencing factors in China’s coal-fired power industry: a cost optimization and decomposition analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 3619-3639, March.
    2. Ma, Minda & Cai, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2018. "Carbon abatement in China's commercial building sector: A bottom-up measurement model based on Kaya-LMDI methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 350-368.
    3. Wang, Yujie & Chen, Hong & Long, Ruyin & Liu, Bei & Jiang, Shiyan & Yang, Xingxing & Yang, Menghua, 2021. "Evaluating green development level of mineral resource-listed companies: Based on a “dark green” assessment framework," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Zhang, You & Yuan, Zengwei & Margni, Manuele & Bulle, Cécile & Hua, Hui & Jiang, Songyan & Liu, Xuewei, 2019. "Intensive carbon dioxide emission of coal chemical industry in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 540-550.
    5. Bing Wang & Chao-Qun Cui & Yi-Xin Zhao & Bo Yang & Qing-Zhou Yang, 2019. "Carbon emissions accounting for China’s coal mining sector: invisible sources of climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1345-1364, December.
    6. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    7. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Assessing CO2 emissions in China’s iron and steel industry: A dynamic vector autoregression model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 375-386.
    8. Drew Shindell & Christopher J. Smith, 2019. "Climate and air-quality benefits of a realistic phase-out of fossil fuels," Nature, Nature, vol. 573(7774), pages 408-411, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Dan & Wang, Shenghu & Yi, Yuting & Ren, Yu, 2024. "The role of fintech, natural resources and trade policy uncertainty towards SDGs in China: New insights from nonlinear approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Feng, Ye & Chen, Jinglong & Luo, Ji, 2024. "Life cycle cost analysis of power generation from underground coal gasification with carbon capture and storage (CCS) to measure the economic feasibility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Qiang & Song, Xiaoxin, 2021. "How UK farewell to coal – Insight from multi-regional input-output and logarithmic mean divisia index analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    2. Huang, Jian-Bai & Luo, Yu-Mei & Feng, Chao, 2019. "An overview of carbon dioxide emissions from China's ferrous metal industry: 1991-2030," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 541-549.
    3. Zhao, Mingxuan & Lv, Lianhong & Wu, Jing & Wang, Shen & Zhang, Nan & Bai, Zihan & Luo, Hong, 2022. "Total factor productivity of high coal-consuming industries and provincial coal consumption: Based on the dynamic spatial Durbin model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    4. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    5. Chateau, J. & Dellink, R. & Lanzi, E. & Magne, B., 2012. "Long-term economic growth and environmental pressure: reference scenarios for future global projections," Conference papers 332249, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Yi Zhang & Tian Lan & Wei Hu, 2023. "A Two-Stage Robust Optimization Microgrid Model Considering Carbon Trading and Demand Response," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-22, October.
    7. Jānis Krūmiņš & Māris Kļaviņš, 2023. "Investigating the Potential of Nuclear Energy in Achieving a Carbon-Free Energy Future," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-31, April.
    8. Chen Ya & Zhang Xintian & Liu Haoxiang, 2021. "Investigating the Impact of Capacity Utilization on Carbon Dioxide Emission: Evidence from China’s Iron and Steel Industry," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 9(6), pages 681-703, December.
    9. Wang, Xianzhu & Huang, He & Hong, Jingke & Ni, Danfei & He, Rongxiao, 2020. "A spatiotemporal investigation of energy-driven factors in China: A region-based structural decomposition analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    10. Gerald Nelson & Jessica Bogard & Keith Lividini & Joanne Arsenault & Malcolm Riley & Timothy B. Sulser & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Brendan Power & David Gustafson & Mario Herrero & Keith Wiebe & Karen Coo, 2018. "Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(12), pages 773-781, December.
    11. Nicole Costa Resende Ferreira & Jarbas Honorio Miranda, 2021. "Projected changes in corn crop productivity and profitability in Parana, Brazil," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 3236-3250, March.
    12. Jaewon Kwak & Huiseong Noh & Soojun Kim & Vijay P. Singh & Seung Jin Hong & Duckgil Kim & Keonhaeng Lee & Narae Kang & Hung Soo Kim, 2014. "Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    13. Joan Pau Sierra & Ricard Castrillo & Marc Mestres & César Mösso & Piero Lionello & Luigi Marzo, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Wave Energy Resource in the Mediterranean Coast of Morocco," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    14. Marcinkowski, Paweł & Piniewski, Mikołaj, 2024. "Future changes in crop yield over Poland driven by climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen stress," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    15. Yang Guo & Liqun Peng & Jinping Tian & Denise L. Mauzerall, 2023. "Deploying green hydrogen to decarbonize China’s coal chemical sector," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Henzler, Julia & Weise, Hanna & Enright, Neal J. & Zander, Susanne & Tietjen, Britta, 2018. "A squeeze in the suitable fire interval: Simulating the persistence of fire-killed plants in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem under drier conditions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 389(C), pages 41-49.
    17. Li, Wei & Gao, Shubin, 2018. "Prospective on energy related carbon emissions peak integrating optimized intelligent algorithm with dry process technique application for China's cement industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 33-54.
    18. Abhiru Aryal & Albira Acharya & Ajay Kalra, 2022. "Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-22, June.
    19. Xuan, Yanni & Yue, Qiang, 2017. "Scenario analysis on resource and environmental benefits of imported steel scrap for China’s steel industry," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 186-198.
    20. An, Runying & Yu, Biying & Li, Ru & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2018. "Potential of energy savings and CO2 emission reduction in China’s iron and steel industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 862-880.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:86:y:2023:i:pb:s0301420723008024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.