IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v85y2023ipas0301420723007262.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new look at the crude oil shocks and trade nexus: Evidence from bilateral trade between Korea and its three largest partners

Author

Listed:
  • Baek, Jungho

Abstract

This article examines the impact of oil supply, global demand, and oil-specific demand shocks on Korea's exports to and imports from its three largest partners: China, the United States, and Japan. We also account for world trade uncertainty in our analysis. Our findings shed light on the complex dynamics of oil price shocks, highlighting the importance of shock type, trading partners, and timing in determining their effects on Korea's trade. Moreover, we identify the significant role of world trade uncertainty in explaining short-term fluctuations in Korea's exports to its top three partners. These insights have substantial implications for trade modeling and policy analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Baek, Jungho, 2023. "A new look at the crude oil shocks and trade nexus: Evidence from bilateral trade between Korea and its three largest partners," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:85:y:2023:i:pa:s0301420723007262
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420723007262
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Dramane & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Current accounts and oil price fluctuations in oil-exporting countries: The role of financial development," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 185-201.
    2. Dominick Salvatore & Greg Winczewski, 1990. "World oil prices and O.E.C.D. trade balance," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 89-106, February.
    3. Andrew Musau & Steinar Veka, 2020. "Crude oil trade and current account deficits: replication and extension," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 875-897, February.
    4. Rafiq, Shudhasattwa & Sgro, Pasquale & Apergis, Nicholas, 2016. "Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 42-50.
    5. Raheem, Ibrahim D., 2017. "Asymmetry and break effects of oil price -macroeconomic fundamentals dynamics: The trade effect channel," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 12-25.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    7. Jungho Baek & Kyoung Doug Kwon, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of oil price changes on the balance of trade: Evidence from selected African countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(11), pages 3235-3252, November.
    8. Jibril, Halima & Chaudhuri, Kausik & Mohaddes, Kamiar, 2020. "Asymmetric oil prices and trade imbalances: Does the source of the oil shock matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
    10. Huntington, Hillard G., 2015. "Crude oil trade and current account deficits," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 70-79.
    11. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2009. "Oil shocks and external balances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 181-194, April.
    12. Muhammad Ahad & Zaheer Anwer, 2020. "Asymmetrical relationship between oil price shocks and trade deficit: Evidence from Pakistan," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 163-180, February.
    13. Sel Dibooğlu & Eisa Aleisa, 2004. "Oil Prices, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Saudi Arabia," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 50-62, January.
    14. Jungho Baek & Yoon Jung Choi, 2020. "Do oil price changes really matter to the trade balance? Evidence from Korea‐ASEAN commodity trade data," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 250-278, September.
    15. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1984. "Oil Prices, Welfare, and the Trade Balance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 649-672.
    16. Baek, Jungho, 2020. "An asymmetric approach to the oil prices-trade balance nexus: New evidence from bilateral trade between Korea and her 14 trading partners," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 199-209.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jungho Baek, 2024. "Does Crude Oil Production Respond Differently to Oil Supply and Demand Shocks? Evidence from Alaska," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-13, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baek, Jungho & Yoon, Jee Hee, 2023. "Shocks of crude oil prices and world trade policy uncertainty: How much do they matter for China’s trade balance with its three largest partners?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 914-921.
    2. Jungho Baek, 2023. "Oil Prices, World Trade Policy Uncertainty, and the Trade Balance: The Case of Korea," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-13, June.
    3. Jungho Baek, 2022. "Not all oil shocks on the trade balance are alike: Empirical evidence from South Korea," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 291-303, June.
    4. Vatsa, Puneet & Baek, Jungho, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of oil demand and oil supply shocks on New Zealand's trade," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    5. Balli, Esra & Nazif Çatık, Abdurrahman & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2021. "Time-varying impact of oil shocks on trade balances: Evidence using the TVP-VAR model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    6. Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Haider Mahmood, 2020. "The Oil Price and Trade Nexus in the Gulf Co-Operation Council Countries," Resources, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, November.
    7. Nahla Samargandi & Kazi Sohag, 2022. "Oil Price Shocks to Foreign Assets and Liabilities in Saudi Arabia under Pegged Exchange Rate," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-15, December.
    8. Salma Bibi & Mirajul Haq & Abdul Rashid, 2021. "Oil Price Fluctuation and Current Accounts: Exploring Mediation Effects for Oil Importing Nations," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 517-528.
    9. Baek, Jungho & Yoon, Jee Hee, 2022. "Do macroeconomic activities respond differently to oil price shocks? New evidence from Indonesia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 852-862.
    10. Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Haider Mahmood, 2020. "Oil Price and Energy Depletion Nexus in GCC Countries: Asymmetry Analyses," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-13, June.
    11. Liurong Pan & Asad Amin & Nian Zhu & Abbas Ali Chandio & Eric Yaw Naminse & Aadil Hameed Shah, 2022. "Exploring the Asymmetrical Influence of Economic Growth, Oil Price, Consumer Price Index and Industrial Production on the Trade Deficit in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, November.
    12. Raheem, Ibrahim & Olabisi, Nafisat, 2019. "What is new? The role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus," MPRA Paper 105361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Kırca, Mustafa & Karagöl, Veysel, 2019. "Symmetric and asymmetric causality between current account balance and oil prices: The case of BRICS-T," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 56, pages 25-44.
    14. Raheem, Ibrahim D., 2017. "Asymmetry and break effects of oil price -macroeconomic fundamentals dynamics: The trade effect channel," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 12-25.
    15. Jungho Baek, 2024. "Does Crude Oil Production Respond Differently to Oil Supply and Demand Shocks? Evidence from Alaska," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-13, February.
    16. Mohamad Husam Helmi & Mohammed I. Abu Eleyan & Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık & Esra Ballı, 2023. "The Time-Varying Effects of Oil Shocks on the Trade Balance of Saudi Arabia," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-18, April.
    17. Jungho Baek & Yoon Jung Choi, 2020. "Do oil price changes really matter to the trade balance? Evidence from Korea‐ASEAN commodity trade data," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 250-278, September.
    18. Baek, Jungho, 2020. "An asymmetric approach to the oil prices-trade balance nexus: New evidence from bilateral trade between Korea and her 14 trading partners," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 199-209.
    19. Muhammad Ahad & Zaheer Anwer, 2021. "Asymmetric impact of oil price on trade balance in BRICS countries: Multiplier dynamic analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2177-2197, April.
    20. Yao Axel Ehouman, 2020. "Do oil-market shocks drive global liquidity?," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-33, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exports; Imports; Oil supply; Oil demand; Korea;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:85:y:2023:i:pa:s0301420723007262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.