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Oil Prices, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Saudi Arabia

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  • Sel Dibooğlu
  • Eisa Aleisa

Abstract

The article investigates the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Saudi Arabia using structural vector autoregression methods and pays particular attention to oil prices and changes in terms of trade. Using a macroeconomic model tailored to the Saudi Arabian economy, the authors identify terms of trade, supply, balance of payments, aggregate demand, and monetary shocks. The results show that the Saudi Arabian price level, real exchange rate, and to a lesser extent output is vulnerable to terms of trade shocks. Moreover, Saudi Arabian terms of trade are driven by output, trade balance, and aggregate demand shocks. To stabilize output and the real exchange rate, Saudi Arabia ought to continue diversifying its production base and aim for a stable nominal oil price. (JEL E32, Q43, C22)

Suggested Citation

  • Sel Dibooğlu & Eisa Aleisa, 2004. "Oil Prices, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Saudi Arabia," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 50-62, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:22:y:2004:i:1:p:50-62
    DOI: 10.1093/cep/byh005
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    Cited by:

    1. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2019. "Does geopolitical risk strengthen or depress oil prices and financial liquidity? Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    2. Muhammad Shahbaz & Arshian Sharif & Alaa M. Soliman & Zhilun Jiao & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2024. "Oil prices and geopolitical risk: Fresh insights based on Granger‐causality in quantiles analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2865-2881, July.
    3. Wee Chian Koh, 2017. "The effects of macroeconomic shocks on the Brunei economy: a sign restriction approach," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 414-428, July.
    4. Jaime Bonet-Morón & Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Lucas Marín-Llanes, 2019. "Oil booms and subnational public investment: a case-study for Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 17701, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    5. Abdalla Alfaki, Ibrahim M. & El Anshasy, Amany A., 2022. "Oil rents, diversification and growth: Is there asymmetric dependence? A copula-based inquiry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Baek, Jungho, 2023. "A new look at the crude oil shocks and trade nexus: Evidence from bilateral trade between Korea and its three largest partners," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    7. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Kalamova, Margarita Manolova, 2007. "Are there oil currencies? The real exchange rate of oil exporting countries," Working Paper Series 839, European Central Bank.
    8. Mehrara, Mohsen & Oskoui, Kamran Niki, 2007. "The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in oil exporting countries: A comparative study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 365-379, May.
    9. Mohamad Imdadul Haque & Mohammad Imran Yunus & Abdul Rahman Shaik, 2021. "The Correlates of Terms of Trade in Oil Exporting Countries of Gulf Cooperation Council Region," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 543-548.
    10. Delavari, Majid & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices on Iran's Methanol," MPRA Paper 49733, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Moncef Guizani & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2020. "Financial conditions, financial constraints and investment-cash flow sensitivity: evidence from Saudi Arabia," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(4), pages 763-784, September.
    12. Bonet-Morón, Jaime & Pérez-Valbuena, Gerson Javier & Marín-Llanes, Lucas, 2020. "Oil shocks and subnational public investment: The role of institutions in regional resource curse," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    13. Jumah Ahmad Alzyadat, 2024. "The Oil Price Shocks and the Monetary Stability in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 32-39, November.
    14. Désiré Avom & Brice Kamguia & Joseph Pasky Ngameni, 2021. "Does volatility hinder economic complexity?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1187-1202.
    15. Wee Chian Koh, 2018. "Sources Of Macroeconomic Fluctuations In Brunei Darussalam," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(05), pages 1285-1306, December.
    16. Baek, Jungho & Yoon, Jee Hee, 2023. "Shocks of crude oil prices and world trade policy uncertainty: How much do they matter for China’s trade balance with its three largest partners?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 914-921.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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