IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v78y2022ics0301420722003178.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Declining integration in the US natural gas market

Author

Listed:
  • Núñez, Héctor M.
  • Trujillo-Barrera, Andres
  • Etienne, Xiaoli

Abstract

Using price data from the lower 48 states, we find that regional natural gas market in the US has become less integrated since the rise of shale production. Price pairs for those states with significant shale production, as well as for major consumption states, show a particularly high reduction in integration. However, the degree of integration has stabilized in recent years, especially after 2016. For state pairs with integrated prices, we show that it takes longer to correct any disequilibrium from the long-run price relationship during the shale boom, indicating slower information transmission. Pipeline capacity and distances play a key role in determining information transmission throughout the sample period, while production, consumption, and storage levels have become more important in recent years. The analysis suggests significant welfare gains from efforts to improve natural gas market integration, such as pipeline and storage capacity expansion projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Núñez, Héctor M. & Trujillo-Barrera, Andres & Etienne, Xiaoli, 2022. "Declining integration in the US natural gas market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:78:y:2022:i:c:s0301420722003178
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102872
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420722003178
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102872?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Kuan-Ming & Etienne, Xiaoli, 2021. "Do natural hazards in the Gulf Coast still matter for state-level natural gas prices in the US? Evidence after the shale gas boom," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    2. Bataa, Erdenebat & Park, Cheolbeom, 2017. "Is the recent low oil price attributable to the shale revolution?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 72-82.
    3. Hector M. Nuñez and Jesús Otero, 2017. "Integration in Gasoline and Ethanol Markets in Brazil over Time and Space under the Flex-fuel Technology," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. Hashem Pesaran, M., 2007. "A pair-wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 312-355, May.
    5. Goldberg, Pinelopi K. & Verboven, Frank, 2005. "Market integration and convergence to the Law of One Price: evidence from the European car market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 49-73, January.
    6. Jesús Otero & Jeremy Smith, 2012. "Response surface models for the Leybourne unit root tests and lag order dependence," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 473-486, September.
    7. Ekaterina Dukhanina & Olivier Massol, 2017. "Spatial Integration of Natural Gas Markets A Litterature Review," Working Papers hal-03187890, HAL.
    8. Leybourne, S J, 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots Using Forward and Reverse Dickey-Fuller Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 559-571, November.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith & Takashi Yamagata & Lyudmyla Hvozdyk, 2009. "Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 495-521.
    10. Atle Oglend & Morten E. Lindback & Petter Osmundsen, 2016. "Shale Gas Boom Affecting the Relationship Between LPG and Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(1), pages 211-232, January.
    11. Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2018. "Understanding the US natural gas market: A Markov switching VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 42-53.
    12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-280, July.
    13. Marlin King & Milan Cuc, 1996. "Price Convergence in North American Natural Gas Spot Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-42.
    14. Chenghan Hou & Bao H. Nguyen, 2018. "Understanding the US natural gas market: A Markov switching VAR approach," CAMA Working Papers 2018-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 1993. "Pipeline Access and Market Integration in the Natural Gas Industry: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-20.
    16. Cárdenas, Jeisson & Gutiérrez, Luis H. & Otero, Jesús, 2017. "Investigating diesel market integration in France: Evidence from micro data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 314-321.
    17. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2013. "On the dynamics of gasoline market integration in the United States: Evidence from a pair-wise approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 503-510.
    18. Haesun Park & James Mjelde & David Bessler, 2007. "Time-varying threshold cointegration and the law of one price," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(9), pages 1091-1105.
    19. Bilgili, Faik & Koçak, Emrah & Bulut, Ümit & Sualp, M. Nedim, 2016. "How did the US economy react to shale gas production revolution? An advanced time series approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 963-977.
    20. Stephen P.A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2008. "What Drives Natural Gas Prices?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 29(2), pages 45-60, April.
    21. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of the North American shale gas revolution on regional natural gas markets: Evidence from the regime-switching model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 167-178.
    22. Avalos, Roger & Fitzgerald, Timothy & Rucker, Randal R., 2016. "Measuring the effects of natural gas pipeline constraints on regional pricing and market integration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 217-231.
    23. Kenneth A. Froot & Michael Kim & Kenneth Rogoff, 2019. "The Law of One Price Over 700 Years," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(1), pages 1-35, May.
    24. Wiggins, Seth & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2017. "Turbulent times: Uncovering the origins of US natural gas price fluctuations since deregulation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 196-205.
    25. Scarcioffolo, Alexandre Ribeiro & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2019. "How connected are the U.S. regional natural gas markets in the post-deregulation era? Evidence from time-varying connectedness analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-1.
    26. Ren, Xiaohang & Lu, Zudi & Cheng, Cheng & Shi, Yukun & Shen, Jian, 2019. "On dynamic linkages of the state natural gas markets in the USA: Evidence from an empirical spatio-temporal network quantile analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 234-252.
    27. Fackler, Paul L. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2001. "Spatial price analysis," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 971-1024, Elsevier.
    28. Kyle Olsen & James Mjelde & David Bessler, 2015. "Price formulation and the law of one price in internationally linked markets: an examination of the natural gas markets in the USA and Canada," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(1), pages 117-142, January.
    29. Kannika Duangnate & James W. Mjelde, 2017. "Effects of the structural change on transaction costs between North America natural gas spot markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 650-663, February.
    30. Hailemariam, Abebe & Smyth, Russell, 2019. "What drives volatility in natural gas prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 731-742.
    31. Paul L. Joskow, 2013. "Natural Gas: From Shortages to Abundance in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 338-343, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yanhui & Zhou, Xiaoyu & Chen, Shun & Mi, Jackson Jinhong, 2024. "LNG freight rate and LNG price, carbon price, geopolitical risk: A dynamic connectedness analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    2. Wang, Xiaolin & Lu, Xiangyi & Chen, Jun & Hu, Xiangping, 2024. "The border effects and choices of competitive strategies of the provincial natural gas markets in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cárdenas, Jeisson & Gutiérrez, Luis H. & Otero, Jesús, 2017. "Investigating diesel market integration in France: Evidence from micro data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 314-321.
    2. Rubaszek, Michał & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "The role of underground storage in the dynamics of the US natural gas market: A threshold model analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Hector M. Nuñez and Jesús Otero, 2017. "Integration in Gasoline and Ethanol Markets in Brazil over Time and Space under the Flex-fuel Technology," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. Scarcioffolo, Alexandre Ribeiro & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2019. "How connected are the U.S. regional natural gas markets in the post-deregulation era? Evidence from time-varying connectedness analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2017. "A Pair-wise Analysis of Intra-city Price Convergence Within the Paris Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 1-16, January.
    6. Richard T. Baillie & Kun Ho Kim, 2015. "Local Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Working Paper series 15-43, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    7. Szafranek Karol & Rubaszek Michał, 2024. "Have European natural gas prices decoupled from crude oil prices? Evidence from TVP-VAR analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 28(3), pages 507-530.
    8. Rubaszek, Michał & Szafranek, Karol & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2021. "The dynamics and elasticities on the U.S. natural gas market. A Bayesian Structural VAR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    9. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2015. "The expectations hypothesis and decoupling of short- and long-term US interest rates: A pairwise approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 301-313.
    10. Karol Szafranek & Michał Rubaszek, 2024. "The European energy crisis and the US natural gas market dynamics. A structural VAR investigation," KAE Working Papers 2024-099, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    11. Ren, Xiaohang & Lu, Zudi & Cheng, Cheng & Shi, Yukun & Shen, Jian, 2019. "On dynamic linkages of the state natural gas markets in the USA: Evidence from an empirical spatio-temporal network quantile analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 234-252.
    12. Ali Jadidzadeh & Mobin Mirzababaei & Apostolos Serletis, 2022. "Oil Prices and the Hydrocarbon Markets: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-9, August.
    13. Mark J Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2018. "Climbing the property ladder: An analysis of market integration in London property prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(12), pages 2660-2681, September.
    14. Dukhanina, Ekaterina & Massol, Olivier & Lévêque, François, 2019. "Policy measures targeting a more integrated gas market: Impact of a merger of two trading zones on prices and arbitrage activity in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 583-593.
    15. Gao, Shen & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2021. "Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    16. Gao, Shen & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models," Working Papers 2020-01, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    17. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2022. "Convergence in retail gasoline prices: insights from Canadian cities," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 68(1), pages 207-228, February.
    18. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Polo, Michele, 2019. "Convergence of European natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 793-811.
    19. Ekaterina Dukhanina & Olivier Massol, 2017. "Spatial Integration of Natural Gas Markets A Litterature Review," Working Papers hal-03187890, HAL.
    20. Li, Boying & Zheng, Mingbo & Zhao, Xinxin & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "An assessment of the effect of partisan ideology on shale gas production and the implications for environmental regulations," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural gas; Prices; Market integration; Pipeline capacity; Rolling-window;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:78:y:2022:i:c:s0301420722003178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.