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Copula-based local dependence among energy, agriculture and metal commodities markets

Author

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  • Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu

    (CRIEF [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers)

  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari

    (ICFAI University Tripura - ICFAI University Tripura)

  • Qiang Ji

    (CAS - Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch])

Abstract

This paper studies the extreme dependencies among energy, agriculture and metal commodities markets, with an emphasis on local co-movements. By applying a novel, copula-based, local Kendall's tau approach to measure nonlinear local dependence in regions, we identified asymmetric co-movements in and between bull and bear markets, as well as the changing trend in the degree of co-movements. Starting from a non-parametric mixture copula, we found that commodities markets' co-movements increase in extreme situations. In addition, we found a stronger dependence between energy and other commodities markets at lower tails. Therefore, we showed that the energy market can offer diversification solutions for risk management in the case of extreme bull market events.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Qiang Ji, 2020. "Copula-based local dependence among energy, agriculture and metal commodities markets," Working Papers hal-02501815, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02501815
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02501815v2
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    energy prices; commodity markets; local dependence; co-movements; mixture copula; local Kendall's tau;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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