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International Business Cycle Synchronization: A Synthetic Assessment

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  • Lee, Hyun-Hoon

    (Kangwon National University)

  • Park, Cyn-Young

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Pyu, Ju Hyun

    (Korea University)

Abstract

We synthetically assess the three major transmission channels of international business cycles: bilateral trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), and portfolio investment flows between economies with multiple fixed effects. Using the data of 72 economies during 2010–2019, we find that real and financial integration generates heterogeneous impacts on business cycle comovement. Trade integration, particularly through intermediate input trade, drives business cycle synchronization. We also find greenfield FDI leads business cycle comovements. This may be due to deepening intra-industry trade and dense global value chains. Higher debt market integration is also associated with more synchronized business cycle comovement, implying that balance sheet effects and the related credit cycle can exert influence on business cycle comovements. However, equity integration leads to business cycle divergence, suggesting that cross-border equity holdings may help stabilize transmission of a foreign economy’s shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Park, Cyn-Young & Pyu, Ju Hyun, 2022. "International Business Cycle Synchronization: A Synthetic Assessment," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 668, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0668
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle synchronization; trade; FDI; portfolio investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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