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International Transmission Mechanism And World Business Cycle

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  • Yifan Shen
  • Tilak Abeysinghe

Abstract

Understanding international transmission mechanism that generates the world business cycle is of immense interest. In this paper, we compile a rich global dataset and utilize a trade‐linked structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with a relatively realistic identification scheme to construct a worldwide dynamic interdependency system. Empirical results indicate that the trade‐linked SVAR system can largely capture the common dynamic properties of national business cycle fluctuations, providing a meaningful transmission foundation to the world business cycle derived from dynamic factor models. Based on the worldwide trade‐linked SVAR system, we further shed light on three crucial topics in international economics. The findings and methods in this paper help to evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of recent trade dispute between world major economies. (JEL F41, F44, O19)

Suggested Citation

  • Yifan Shen & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2021. "International Transmission Mechanism And World Business Cycle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 510-531, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:59:y:2021:i:1:p:510-531
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.12916
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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