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M3 money demand and excess liquidity in the euro area

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  • Christian Dreger
  • Jürgen Wolters

Abstract

Money growth in the euro area has exceeded its target since 2001. Likewise, recent empirical studies did not find evidence in favour of a stable long run money demand function. The equation appears to be increasingly unstable if more recent data are used. If the link between money balances and the macroeconomy is fragile, the rationale of monetary aggregates in the ECB strategy has to be doubted. In contrast to the bulk of the literature, we are able to identify a stable long run money demand relationship for M3 with reasonable long run behaviour. This finding is robust for different (ML and S2S) estimation methods. To obtain the result, the short run homogeneity restriction between money and prices is relaxed. In addition, a rise in the income elasticity after 2001 is taken into account. The break might be linked to the introduction of euro coins and banknotes. The monetary overhang and the real money gap do not indicate significant inflation pressures. The corresponding error correction model survives a battery of specification tests.
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Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2010. "M3 money demand and excess liquidity in the euro area," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 459-472, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:144:y:2010:i:3:p:459-472
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-010-9679-5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Clemens Kool & Erik de Regt & Tom van Veen, 2013. "Money Overhang, Credit Overhang and Financial Imbalances in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 4476, CESifo.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? – Cointegrated VAR versus Single Equation Techniques," Ruhr Economic Papers 0171, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2014. "Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-312.
    5. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Roelands, Sebastian, 2010. "The demand for euros," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 674-684, June.
    6. Czudaj, Robert, 2011. "P-star in times of crisis - Forecasting inflation for the euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 390-407, September.
    7. Liu, Jingyang & Kool, Clemens J.M., 2018. "Money and credit overhang in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 622-633.
    8. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "US Money Demand, Monetary Overhang, and Inflation," Working Papers 2010.4, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    9. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2009. "Money velocity and asset prices in the euro area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 51-63, February.
    10. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti, 2018. "On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demand and Its Implications for Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(4), pages 755-787, August.
    11. Lebre DE Freitas, Miguel, 2022. "International currency substitution and the demand for money in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    12. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2013:i:119 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2016. "On the Empirical Relevance of the Lucas Critique: the Case of Euro Area Money Demand," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 43(1), pages 61-82.
    14. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2011. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area during the Financial Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1131, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Alexander C. Jung, 2015. "Does liquidity matter for money demand in euro area countries?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1383-1391.
    16. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Wei Liao & Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba, 2014. "China’s Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Liberalization: Lessons from International Experiences," IMF Working Papers 2014/075, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2015. "Ewolucja pogladow Miltona Friedmana, a ocena polityki pienieznej Fed i EBC w okresie kryzysu finansowego," Working Papers 168/2015, Institute of Economic Research, revised Dec 2015.
    19. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2014. "On inflation and money demand in a portfolio model with shopping costs," NIPE Working Papers 13/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    20. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "A portfolio demand approach for broad money in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1929, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration analysis; Error correction; Excess liquidity; Monetary policy; Money demand; C22; C52; E41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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