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When do plastic bills lower the bill for the central bank? A model and estimates for the U.S

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  • Bouhdaoui, Y.
  • Bounie, D.
  • Van Hove, L.

Abstract

We develop an analytical framework that allows central banks to assess whether changing the manufacturing material of their tokens would be beneficial. Applied to the case of the U.S., we find that a complete adoption of plastic notes would save the Fed $140 million per year but would entail a substantial migration cost in case of a “big bang”. On the level of individual denominations, we find that the $1 bill would be the most lucrative to replace and that the business case for the $100 bill is thin – suggesting that a partial adoption of polymer would make more sense.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouhdaoui, Y. & Bounie, D. & Van Hove, L., 2013. "When do plastic bills lower the bill for the central bank? A model and estimates for the U.S," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 45-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:1:p:45-60
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.08.001
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    1. Jorge E. Galán and & Miguel Sarmiento, 2008. "Banknote Printing at Modern central Banking: Trends, Costs and Efficiency," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 217-262, July-Dece.
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    4. Alami, Tarik H., 2001. "Currency substitution versus dollarization: A portfolio balance model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 473-479, May.
    5. VAN HOVE, Leo, 2007. "Central Banks and Payment Instruments: a Serious Case of Schizophrenia," MPRA Paper 5281, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    8. Anikó Turján & Éva Divéki & Éva Keszy-Harmath & Gergely Kóczán & Kristóf Takács, 2011. "Nothing is free: a survey of the social cost of the main payment instruments in Hungary," MNB Occasional Papers 2011/93, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
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    Cited by:

    1. Van Hove, Leo, 2015. "Modelling banknote printing costs: of cohorts, generations, and note-years," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 238-249.
    2. Bouhdaoui, Yassine & Van Hove, Leo, 2017. "On the socially optimal density of coin and banknote series: Do production costs really matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 252-267.
    3. Deinhammer, Harald & Ladi, Anna, 2017. "Modelling euro banknote quality in circulation," Occasional Paper Series 204, European Central Bank.
    4. de Heij, Hans, 2017. "A model for use-centered design of payment instruments applied to banknotes : Upid-model," Other publications TiSEM 981fb06b-8f61-4652-aedb-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central banks; Plastic banknotes; Production costs; Seigniorage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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