IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jotrge/v90y2021ics0966692320310206.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A nodal approach for estimating potential cycling demand

Author

Listed:
  • Hitge, Gerhard
  • Joubert, Johan W.

Abstract

Establishing cycling as a prominent utility mode is recognised as central to creating sustainable transport systems in many cities around the world. Strategies of starter cycling cities are often biased to the supply of infrastructure along prominent corridors without acknowledging the nature, quantum or location of potential demand for cycling. Decisions are frequently left to local knowledge and experience of local needs, resulting in a bias with little opportunity for repeatability or reproducibility. This study proposes a data-driven approach to estimate the potential market for cycling geographically. Estimates are based on the number of potential cyclists in close proximity to the destinations they want to access. The paper demonstrates the method using Cape Town, South Africa as a case study. Given the virtual absence of utility cycling in the city, characteristics of cyclists in cities where cycling is popular are used to identify potential cyclists. Destination nodes are stratified in terms of the characteristics of their users, while home locations of persons with these characteristics are identified from a publicly available synthetic population for Cape Town. Analysis provides an order of magnitude indication of the cycling potential of selected nodes. It also shows areas with many potential cyclists that are not in proximity of desired destination. The results enable city authorities to focus detailed investigations and interventions where a critical mass of cycling may be achieved with the least effort and in the shortest time.

Suggested Citation

  • Hitge, Gerhard & Joubert, Johan W., 2021. "A nodal approach for estimating potential cycling demand," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:90:y:2021:i:c:s0966692320310206
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102943
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692320310206
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102943?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tommy Gärling & Kay Axhausen, 2003. "Introduction: Habitual travel choice," Transportation, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 1-11, February.
    2. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    3. Saleh, Wafaa & Farrell, Séona, 2007. "Investigation and analysis of evidence of asymmetric churn in travel demand models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 691-702, August.
    4. Silva, Cecília & Teixeira, João & Proença, Ana & Bicalho, Tamara & Cunha, Isabel & Aguiar, Ana, 2019. "Revealing the cycling potential of starter cycling cities: Usefulness for planning practice," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 138-147.
    5. Faghih Imani, Ahmadreza & Miller, Eric J. & Saxe, Shoshanna, 2019. "Cycle accessibility and level of traffic stress: A case study of Toronto," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Ralph Buehler & John Pucher, 2012. "Cycling to work in 90 large American cities: new evidence on the role of bike paths and lanes," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 409-432, March.
    7. Wang, Chih-Hao & Akar, Gulsah & Guldmann, Jean-Michel, 2015. "Do your neighbors affect your bicycling choice? A spatial probit model for bicycling to The Ohio State University," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 122-130.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chorus, Caspar G. & Arentze, Theo A. & Molin, Eric J.E. & Timmermans, Harry J.P. & Van Wee, Bert, 2006. "The value of travel information: Decision strategy-specific conceptualizations and numerical examples," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 504-519, July.
    2. Xie, Chi & Liu, Zugang, 2014. "On the stochastic network equilibrium with heterogeneous choice inertia," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 90-109.
    3. Cunha, Isabel & Silva, Cecília & Büttner, Benjamin & Toivonen, Tuuli, 2024. "Pursuing cycling equity? A mixed-methods analysis of cycling plans in European cities," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 237-246.
    4. Cunha, Isabel & Silva, Cecília, 2023. "Assessing the equity impact of cycling infrastructure allocation: Implications for planning practice," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 15-26.
    5. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich & Schaltegger, Christoph A., 2007. "With or Against the People? The Impact of a Bottom-Up Approach on Tax Morale and the Shadow Economy," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt6331x6vz, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    6. Christina Leuker & Thorsten Pachur & Ralph Hertwig & Timothy J. Pleskac, 2019. "Do people exploit risk–reward structures to simplify information processing in risky choice?," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 5(1), pages 76-94, August.
    7. Lovejoy, Kristin, 2012. "Mobility Fulfillment Among Low-car Households: Implications for Reducing Auto Dependence in the United States," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt4v44b5qn, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    8. Ranganathan, Kavitha & Lejarraga, Tomás, 2021. "Elicitation of risk preferences through satisficing," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    9. Andrew Caplin & Mark Dean & Daniel Martin, 2011. "Search and Satisficing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 2899-2922, December.
    10. Downward, Paul & Rasciute, Simona, 2015. "Assessing the impact of the National Cycle Network and physical activity lifestyle on cycling behaviour in England," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 425-437.
    11. Shi, Yi & Deng, Yawen & Wang, Guoan & Xu, Jiuping, 2020. "Stackelberg equilibrium-based eco-economic approach for sustainable development of kitchen waste disposal with subsidy policy: A case study from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    12. Lawrence Bunnell & Kweku-Muata Osei-Bryson & Victoria Y. Yoon, 0. "RecSys Issues Ontology: A Knowledge Classification of Issues for Recommender Systems Researchers," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-42.
    13. da Silveira, Jaylson Jair & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2021. "Wage inequality as a source of endogenous macroeconomic fluctuations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 35-52.
    14. Marianne Bertrand & Dean S. Karlan & Sendhil Mullainathan & Eldar Shafir & Jonathan Zinman, 2005. "What's Psychology Worth? A Field Experiment in the Consumer Credit Market," Working Papers 918, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    15. Manolis, Chris & Nygaard, Arne & Stillerud, Bård, 1997. "Uncertainty and vertical control: An international investigation," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 501-518, October.
    16. Elizabeth J. Altman & Frank Nagle & Michael L. Tushman, 2013. "Innovating Without Information Constraints: Organizations, Communities, and Innovation When Information Costs Approach Zero," Harvard Business School Working Papers 14-043, Harvard Business School, revised Sep 2014.
    17. Toşa, Cristian & Sato, Hitomi & Morikawa, Takayuki & Miwa, Tomio, 2018. "Commuting behavior in emerging urban areas: Findings of a revealed-preferences and stated-intentions survey in Cluj-Napoca, Romania," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 78-93.
    18. Gerd Gigerenzer, 1997. "Bounded Rationality: Models of Fast and Frugal Inference," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 133(II), pages 201-218, June.
    19. Jhunjhunwala, Tanushree, 2021. "Searching to avoid regret: An experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 298-319.
    20. Jacopo Arpetti & Antonio Iovanella, 2019. "Towards more effective consumer steering via network analysis," Papers 1903.11469, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:90:y:2021:i:c:s0966692320310206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-geography .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.