Potential for reducing carbon emissions from urban traffic based on the carbon emission satisfaction: Case study in Shanghai

The transport sector has attracted much attention as one of the main sources of carbon emissions. In this study, we constructed an optimal urban traffic structure model based on the concept of carbon emission satisfaction in order to estimate the absolute carbon emission reductions that can be achieved, and to objectively analyze the relative difficulty of achieving the emissions reduction goal. By considering Shanghai as an example, we found that rail transit is the dominant mode of transportation and that the proportion of travel in private cars can be greatly reduced, but buses should be maintained at the current level, whereas the proportion of taxis may be reduced slightly. In the existing traffic environment in Shanghai, after optimizing the urban traffic structure, we found that 47.62% of the carbon emissions reduction target can be achieved. However, given the excessive attention paid to the satisfaction of individuals and the government but the lack of consideration of the ecological environment, the carbon emission satisfaction with respect to urban traffic is low at present in Shanghai. Improving the carbon emission satisfaction by reducing the satisfaction of other targets is difficult, and the potential for reducing carbon emissions is limited for transportation. Therefore, Shanghai can only achieve its carbon emission reduction targets by implementing resource allocation, transportation technology, and urban planning measures in order to improve the existing traffic conditions, thereby achieving the goal of reducing carbon emissions but without affecting the satisfaction of other targets.