IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jotrge/v73y2018icp120-130.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transportation and economic growth in China: A heterogeneous panel cointegration and causality analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Tong, Tingting
  • Yu, T. Edward

Abstract

This study analyzes the cointegration and causal relationship between transportation and economic growth in the eastern, central and western regions of China using provincial data from 2000 to 2015. Accounting for cross-section dependence and heterogeneity among provinces, a long-run equilibrium relationship is established between freight transportation and economic growth in all three regions. Specifically, the long-run output elasticity coefficient for freight transportation ranges between 0.35 and 0.89 among the three regions, with the highest economic impact in the central region. In addition, a bidirectional Granger causal relationship is identified between freight transportation and economic growth in the less developed central and western regions, while freight transportation leads economic growth in the more affluent eastern region but not the reverse. When considering modes of freight transportations, highways are found to be cointegrated with economic growth, with a long run impact ranging from 0.37 to 0.67 among the three regions. Also, the causality between highway freight and economic growth follows the relationship between overall freight transportation and economy in all three regions; whereas rail freight do not cause economic growth in any of the three regions. Our findings imply that highway freight has become the dominant mode of transportation in terms of supporting regional economic growth. In addition, spatial diversity in economic activity should be taken into consideration in planning regional transportation system in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Tong, Tingting & Yu, T. Edward, 2018. "Transportation and economic growth in China: A heterogeneous panel cointegration and causality analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 120-130.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:73:y:2018:i:c:p:120-130
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2018.10.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692318301637
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2018.10.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angang Hu & Shenglong Liu, 2010. "Transportation, economic growth and spillover effects: The conclusion based on the spatial econometric model," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 169-186, June.
    2. Zhiyang Wang & Sizhong Sun, 2016. "Transportation infrastructure and rural development in China," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(3), pages 516-525, September.
    3. Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 193-233.
    4. Joakim Westerlund & David L. Edgerton, 2008. "A Simple Test for Cointegration in Dependent Panels with Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(5), pages 665-704, October.
    5. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    6. Li, Raymond & Leung, Guy C.K., 2012. "Coal consumption and economic growth in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 438-443.
    7. Frees,Edward W., 2004. "Longitudinal and Panel Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828284, September.
    8. Yu, Nannan & de Jong, Martin & Storm, Servaas & Mi, Jianing, 2013. "Spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure: evidence from Chinese regions," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 56-66.
    9. Xueliang Zhang, 2008. "Transport infrastructure, spatial spillover and economic growth: Evidence from China," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 3(4), pages 585-597, December.
    10. Angang Hu & Shenglong Liu, 2010. "Transportation, Economic Growth and Spillover Effects: The Conclusion Based on the Spatial Econometric Model," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 169-186, June.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    12. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    13. Fedderke, J.W. & Perkins, P. & Luiz, J.M., 2006. "Infrastructural investment in long-run economic growth: South Africa 1875-2001," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1037-1059, June.
    14. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    15. Christophe Hurlin, 2004. "Testing Granger causality in Heterogeneous panel data models with fixed coefficients," Post-Print halshs-00257395, HAL.
    16. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    17. Lining He & Faye Duchin, 2009. "Regional Development In China: Interregional Transportation Infrastructure And Regional Comparative Advantage," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 3-22.
    18. Frees, Edward W., 1995. "Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 393-414, October.
    19. Banerjee, Abhijit & Duflo, Esther & Qian, Nancy, 2020. "On the road: Access to transportation infrastructure and economic growth in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    20. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2013. "On The Economic Effects Of Public Infrastructure Investment: A Survey Of The International Evidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-37, December.
    21. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2005. "Cross-Section Regression with Common Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(5), pages 1551-1585, September.
    22. Roberts, Mark & Deichmann, Uwe & Fingleton, Bernard & Shi, Tuo, 2012. "Evaluating China's road to prosperity: A new economic geography approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 580-594.
    23. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 171-188, September.
    24. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Bagchi, Tapan P., 2013. "Effect of transportation infrastructure on economic growth in India: The VECM approach," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 139-148.
    25. M. Hashem Pesaran & Badi H. Baltagi, 2007. "Heterogeneity and cross section dependence in panel data models: theory and applications introduction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 229-232.
    26. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, July.
    27. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    28. Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan & Kose, Nezir, 2011. "Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 870-876, May.
    29. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    30. Jameel Khadaroo & Boopen Seetanah, 2008. "Transport and Economic Performance: The Case of Mauritius," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 42(2), pages 255-267, May.
    31. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    32. Taotao Deng, 2013. "Impacts of Transport Infrastructure on Productivity and Economic Growth: Recent Advances and Research Challenges," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 686-699, November.
    33. Fan, Shenggen & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2004. "Infrastructure and regional economic development in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 203-214.
    34. Swamy, P A V B, 1970. "Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 311-323, March.
    35. Niloy Bose & M. Emranul Haque, 2005. "Causality Between Public Investment In Transport And Communication And Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 95-106, June.
    36. Wei Zou & Fen Zhang & Ziyin Zhuang & Hairong Song, 2008. "Transport Infrastructure, Growth, and Poverty Alleviation: Empirical Analysis of China," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(2), pages 345-371, November.
    37. Fan, Shenggen & Chan-Kang, Connie, 2004. "Road development, economic growth, and poverty reduction in China," DSGD discussion papers 12, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    38. Pravakar Sahoo & Ranjan Kumar Dash & Geethanjali Nataraj, 2012. "China¡¯S Growth Story: The Role Of Physical And Social Infrastructure," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 53-75, March.
    39. Hakim, Md Mahbubul & Merkert, Rico, 2016. "The causal relationship between air transport and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Asia," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 120-127.
    40. Pravakar Sahoo & Ranjan Kumar Dash, 2012. "Economic growth in South Asia: Role of infrastructure," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 217-252, January.
    41. Hooi Lean, Hooi & Huang, Wei & Hong, Junjie, 2014. "Logistics and economic development: Experience from China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 96-104.
    42. Elton Fernandes & Ricardo Rodrigues Pacheco, 2010. "The causal relationship between GDP and domestic air passenger traffic in Brazil," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 569-581, July.
    43. Taotao Deng & Shuai Shao & Lili Yang & Xueliang Zhang, 2014. "Has the transport-led economic growth effect reached a peak in China? A panel threshold regression approach," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 567-587, May.
    44. Maparu, Tuhin Subhra & Mazumder, Tarak Nath, 2017. "Transport infrastructure, economic development and urbanization in India (1990–2011): Is there any causal relationship?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 319-336.
    45. Junjie Hong & Zhaofang Chu & Qiang Wang, 2011. "Transport infrastructure and regional economic growth: evidence from China," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(5), pages 737-752, September.
    46. Frees,Edward W., 2004. "Longitudinal and Panel Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521535380, September.
    47. Wenming Shi & Hee-Seok Bang & Kevin X. Li, 2016. "A cross-region analysis of the output elasticity of transport investment in China," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 222-241, February.
    48. Mody, Ashoka & Wang, Fang-Yi, 1997. "Explaining Industrial Growth in Coastal China: Economic Reforms . . . and What Else?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 11(2), pages 293-325, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elena Cigu & Daniela Tatiana Agheorghiesei & Anca Florentina Gavriluță (Vatamanu) & Elena Toader, 2018. "Transport Infrastructure Development, Public Performance and Long-Run Economic Growth: A Case Study for the Eu-28 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Fang, Zheng & Chen, Yang, 2017. "Human capital, energy, and economic development – Evidence from Chinese provincial data," RIEI Working Papers 2017-03, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Research Institute for Economic Integration.
    3. Zheng Fang & Jiang Yu, 2020. "The role of human capital in energy-growth nexus: an international evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1225-1247, March.
    4. Adolfo Maza & Paula Gutiérrez-Portilla, 2022. "Outward FDI and exports relation: A heterogeneous panel approach dealing with cross-sectional dependence," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 174-189.
    5. Saidi, Hichem & El Montasser, Ghassen & Ajmi, Noomen, 2018. "Renewable Energy, Quality of Institutions and Economic Growth in MENA Countries: a Panel Cointegration Approach," MPRA Paper 84055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Fang, Zheng & Chen, Yang, 2017. "Human capital and energy in economic growth – Evidence from Chinese provincial data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 340-358.
    7. Saidi, Samir & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Akhtar, Pervaiz, 2018. "The long-run relationships between transport energy consumption, transport infrastructure, and economic growth in MENA countries," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 78-95.
    8. Ştefan Cristian Gherghina & Mihaela Onofrei & Georgeta Vintilă & Daniel Ştefan Armeanu, 2018. "Empirical Evidence from EU-28 Countries on Resilient Transport Infrastructure Systems and Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-34, August.
    9. Alam, Khalid Mehmood & Li, Xuemei & Baig, Saranjam & Ghanem, Osman & Hanif, Salman, 2021. "Causality between transportation infrastructure and economic development in Pakistan: An ARDL analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. Qi, Guanqiu & Shi, Wenming & Lin, Kun-Chin & Yuen, Kum Fai & Xiao, Yi, 2020. "Spatial spillover effects of logistics infrastructure on regional development: Evidence from China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 96-114.
    11. Timilsina,Govinda R. & Hochman,Gal & Song,Ze, 2020. "Infrastructure, Economic Growth, and Poverty : A Review," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9258, The World Bank.
    12. Ozcan, Burcu, 2013. "The nexus between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Middle East countries: A panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1138-1147.
    13. Fang, Zheng & Chang, Youngho, 2016. "Energy, human capital and economic growth in Asia Pacific countries — Evidence from a panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 177-184.
    14. Muhammad Shahbaz & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Saleheen Khan, 2016. "Is energy consumption per capita stationary? Evidence from first and second generation panel unit root tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(3), pages 1656-1669.
    15. Khalid, Usman & Shafiullah, Muhammad, 2021. "Financial development and governance: A panel data analysis incorporating cross-sectional dependence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    16. Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Mehmet Balcilar, 2018. "The Long-run Effect of Geopolitical Risks on Insurance Premiums," Working Papers 15-44, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    17. Zhang, Qianxiao & Shah, Syed Ale Raza & Yang, Ling, 2022. "Modeling the effect of disaggregated renewable energies on ecological footprint in E5 economies: Do economic growth and R&D matter?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    18. Eberhardt, Markus & Teal, Francis, 2008. "Modeling technology and technological change in manufacturing: how do countries differ?," MPRA Paper 10690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Panait, Mirela & Apostu, Simona Andreea & Vasile, Valentina & Vasile, Razvan, 2022. "Is energy efficiency a robust driver for the new normal development model? A Granger causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    20. Mehdi Ben Jebli & Montassar Kahia, 2020. "The interdependence between CO2 emissions, economic growth, renewable and non-renewable energies, and service development: evidence from 65 countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 193-212, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:73:y:2018:i:c:p:120-130. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-geography .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.