IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jomega/v51y2015icp128-135.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Technological forecasting of supercomputer development: The March to Exascale computing

Author

Listed:
  • Lim, Dong-Joon
  • Anderson, Timothy R.
  • Shott, Tom

Abstract

Advances in supercomputers have come at a steady pace over the past 20 years. The next milestone is to build an Exascale computer however this requires not only speed improvement but also significant enhancements for energy efficiency and massive parallelism. This paper examines technological progress of supercomputer development to identify the innovative potential of three leading technology paths toward Exascale development: hybrid system, multicore system and manycore system. Performance measurement and rate of change calculation were made by technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA.) The results indicate that the current level of technology and rate of progress can achieve Exascale performance between early 2021 and late 2022 as either hybrid systems or manycore systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Lim, Dong-Joon & Anderson, Timothy R. & Shott, Tom, 2015. "Technological forecasting of supercomputer development: The March to Exascale computing," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 128-135.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:128-135
    DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2014.09.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305048314001200
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.omega.2014.09.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fried, Harold O. & Lovell, C. A. Knox & Schmidt, Shelton S. (ed.), 2008. "The Measurement of Productive Efficiency and Productivity Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195183528.
    2. Tashman, Leonard J., 2000. "Out-of-sample tests of forecasting accuracy: an analysis and review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 437-450.
    3. Cook, Wade D. & Tone, Kaoru & Zhu, Joe, 2014. "Data envelopment analysis: Prior to choosing a model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-4.
    4. Thanassoulis, E. & Boussofiane, A. & Dyson, R. G., 1996. "A comparison of data envelopment analysis and ratio analysis as tools for performance assessment," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 229-244, June.
    5. Lim, Dong-Joon & Anderson, Timothy R. & Inman, Oliver Lane, 2014. "Choosing effective dates from multiple optima in Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 91-97.
    6. Doyle, JR & Green, RH, 1991. "Comparing products using data envelopment analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 631-638.
    7. Liu, John S. & Lu, Louis Y.Y. & Lu, Wen-Min & Lin, Bruce J.Y., 2013. "A survey of DEA applications," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 893-902.
    8. Nakabayashi, Ken & Tone, Kaoru, 2006. "Egoist's dilemma: a DEA game," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 135-148, April.
    9. Giokas, DI, 1991. "Bank branch operating efficiency: A comparative application of DEA and the loglinear model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 549-557.
    10. Joe Zhu, 2014. "Data Envelopment Analysis," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Quantitative Models for Performance Evaluation and Benchmarking, edition 3, chapter 1, pages 1-9, Springer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Azarnoosh Kafi & Behrouz Daneshian & Mohsen Rostamy-Malkhalifeh, 2021. "Forecasting the confidence interval of efficiency in fuzzy DEA," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 31(1), pages 41-59.
    2. Lim, Dong-Joon, 2016. "Inverse DEA with frontier changes for new product target setting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 254(2), pages 510-516.
    3. Azarnoosh Kafi & Behrouz Daneshian & Mohsen Rostamy-Malkhalifeh, 2021. "Forecasting the confidence interval of efficiency in fuzzy DEA," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 31, pages 41-59.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. González, Eduardo & Cárcaba, Ana & Ventura, Juan, 2015. "How car dealers adjust prices to reach the product efficiency frontier in the Spanish automobile market," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 38-48.
    2. Ester Gutiérrez & Sebastián Lozano, 2020. "Benchmarking Formula One auto racing circuits: a two stage DEA approach," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 2059-2083, December.
    3. Park, Jaehun & Lee, Dongha & Zhu, Joe, 2014. "An integrated approach for ship block manufacturing process performance evaluation: Case from a Korean shipbuilding company," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 214-222.
    4. Toloo, Mehdi & Hančlová, Jana, 2020. "Multi-valued measures in DEA in the presence of undesirable outputs," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Wei, Guiwu & Chen, Jian & Wang, Jiamin, 2014. "Stochastic efficiency analysis with a reliability consideration," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-9.
    6. Dyckhoff, Harald & Souren, Rainer, 2022. "Integrating multiple criteria decision analysis and production theory for performance evaluation: Framework and review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(3), pages 795-816.
    7. Tüselmann, Heinz & Sinkovics, Rudolf R. & Pishchulov, Grigory, 2016. "Revisiting the standing of international business journals in the competitive landscape," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 487-498.
    8. Andreas Eder & Bernhard Mahlberg & Bernhard Stürmer, 2021. "Measuring and explaining productivity growth of renewable energy producers: An empirical study of Austrian biogas plants," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 37-63, February.
    9. Sarmento, Joaquim Miranda & Renneboog, Luc & Verga-Matos, Pedro, 2017. "Measuring highway efficiency : A DEA approach and the Malquist index," Other publications TiSEM 23264815-321e-45a3-83ee-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Kottas, Angelos T. & Madas, Michael A., 2018. "Comparative efficiency analysis of major international airlines using Data Envelopment Analysis: Exploring effects of alliance membership and other operational efficiency determinants," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-17.
    11. Joe Zhu, 2022. "DEA under big data: data enabled analytics and network data envelopment analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 309(2), pages 761-783, February.
    12. Tüselmann, Heinz & Sinkovics, Rudolf R. & Pishchulov, Grigory, 2015. "Towards a consolidation of worldwide journal rankings – A classification using random forests and aggregate rating via data envelopment analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 11-23.
    13. Johnes, Jill, 2015. "Operational Research in education," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(3), pages 683-696.
    14. Marc Rohde & Christoph Breuer, 2018. "Competing by investments or efficiency? Exploring financial and sporting efficiency of club ownership structures in European football," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 563-581, December.
    15. Kottas, Angelos T. & Bozoudis, Michail N. & Madas, Michael A., 2020. "Turbofan aero-engine efficiency evaluation: An integrated approach using VSBM two-stage network DEA," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    16. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2015. "Efficiency of the banking system in Vietnam under financial liberalization," OSF Preprints qsf6d, Center for Open Science.
    17. Akbari, Negar & Jones, Dylan & Treloar, Richard, 2020. "A cross-European efficiency assessment of offshore wind farms: A DEA approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 1186-1195.
    18. Liu, John S. & Lu, Louis Y.Y. & Lu, Wen-Min, 2016. "Research fronts in data envelopment analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 33-45.
    19. Yue Chen & Yuantao Jiang & Aibing Zheng & Yunzhu Yue & Zhi-Hua Hu, 2023. "What Research Should Vocational Education Colleges Conduct? An Empirical Study Using Data Envelopment Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, June.
    20. Hisham Alidrisi & Mehmet Emin Aydin & Abdullah Omer Bafail & Reda Abdulal & Shoukath Ali Karuvatt, 2019. "Monitoring the Performance of Petrochemical Organizations in Saudi Arabia Using Data Envelopment Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-16, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:128-135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.