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Predicting mutual fund performance using artificial neural networks

Author

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  • Indro, D. C.
  • Jiang, C. X.
  • Patuwo, B. E.
  • Zhang, G. P.

Abstract

This study utilizes an artificial neural network (ANN) approach to predict the performance of equity mutual funds that follow value, blend and growth investment styles. Using a multi-layer perceptron model and GRG2 nonlinear optimizer, fund-specific historical operating characteristics were used to forecast mutual funds' risk-adjusted return. Results show that ANN generates better forecasting results than linear models for funds of all styles. In addition, our model outperforms that of Chiang et al. [Chiang WC, Urban TL, Baldridge GW. A neural network approach to mutual fund net asset value forecasting. Omega Int J Manage Sci 1996:24;205-215.] in predicting the performance of growth funds. We also employed a heuristic approach of variable selection via neural networks and compared it with the stepwise selection method of linear regression. Results are encouraging in that the reduced ANN models still outperform the linear models for growth and blend funds and yield similar results for value funds.

Suggested Citation

  • Indro, D. C. & Jiang, C. X. & Patuwo, B. E. & Zhang, G. P., 1999. "Predicting mutual fund performance using artificial neural networks," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 373-380, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:27:y:1999:i:3:p:373-380
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    1. Victor DeMiguel & Javier Gil-Bazo & Francisco J. Nogales & André A. P. Santos, 2021. "Can Machine Learning Help to Select Portfolios of Mutual Funds?," Working Papers 1245, Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Hwarng, H. Brian, 2001. "Insights into neural-network forecasting of time series corresponding to ARMA(p,q) structures," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 273-289, June.
    3. Huarng, Kunhuang & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2006. "The application of neural networks to forecast fuzzy time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 363(2), pages 481-491.
    4. Azadeh, A. & Saberi, M. & Seraj, O., 2010. "An integrated fuzzy regression algorithm for energy consumption estimation with non-stationary data: A case study of Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 2351-2366.
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    6. Konstantina Pendaraki & Michael Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2003. "Assessing Equity Mutual Funds' Performance Using a Multicriteria Methodology: A Comparative Analysis," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 1(1), pages 85-104.
    7. Malhotra, Rashmi & Malhotra, D. K., 2003. "Evaluating consumer loans using neural networks," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 83-96, April.
    8. Robert G. Biscontri, 2012. "A Radial Basis Function Approach To Earnings Forecast," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-18, January.
    9. Owen P. Hall Jr. & Darrol J. Stanley, 2012. "A comparative modelling analysis of firm performance," International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1), pages 43-56.
    10. Ching-Hsue Cheng & Ssu-Hsiang Wang, 2015. "A quarterly time-series classifier based on a reduced-dimension generated rules method for identifying financial distress," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(12), pages 1979-1994, December.
    11. Nghia Chu & Binh Dao & Nga Pham & Huy Nguyen & Hien Tran, 2022. "Predicting Mutual Funds' Performance using Deep Learning and Ensemble Techniques," Papers 2209.09649, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    12. DeMiguel, Victor & Gil-Bazo, Javier & Nogales, Francisco J. & Santos, André A.P., 2023. "Machine learning and fund characteristics help to select mutual funds with positive alpha," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    13. Laura Fabregat-Aibar & Maria-Teresa Sorrosal-Forradellas & Glòria Barberà-Mariné & Antonio Terceño, 2021. "Can Artificial Neural Networks Predict the Survival Capacity of Mutual Funds? Evidence from Spain," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-10, March.
    14. Maldonado, Sebastián & Domínguez, Gonzalo & Olaya, Diego & Verbeke, Wouter, 2021. "Profit-driven churn prediction for the mutual fund industry: A multisegment approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    15. Neupane, Suman & Thapa, Chandra & Vithanage, Kulunu, 2023. "Context‐specific experience and institutional investors’ performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    16. Perez Katarzyna & Szczyt Małgorzata, 2021. "Classification of Open-End Investment Funds Using Artificial Neural Networks. The Case of Polish Equity Funds," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 8(55), pages 269-284, January.
    17. Ioannidis, Christos & Pasiouras, Fotios & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2010. "Assessing bank soundness with classification techniques," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 345-357, October.
    18. Azadeh, A. & Ghaderi, S.F. & Anvari, M. & Saberi, M., 2007. "Performance assessment of electric power generations using an adaptive neural network algorithm," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3155-3166, June.

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    Forecasting GRG2 Mutual fund performance Neural networks;

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