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Macroeconomic impacts of changes in life expectancy and fertility

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  • Miles, David

Abstract

This paper analyses economic implications of the different ways in which the population structure of countries becomes older: longer lives and declines in fertility both generate ageing populations but have very different impacts upon the aggregate population. If lower fertility persists populations in many countries will decline. Having reviewed the evidence for this, I consider both why fertility rates have fallen and may stay low. I then analyse the economic implications of populations that may stop growing and start to fall, focusing on how this may play out in the UK. I consider policy implications of such a demographic shift. Despite many predictions of the dire consequences of falling populations the economic impacts are likely, on balance, to be positive.

Suggested Citation

  • Miles, David, 2023. "Macroeconomic impacts of changes in life expectancy and fertility," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:24:y:2023:i:c:s2212828x22000573
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2022.100425
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Doepke, Matthias & Hannusch, Anne & Kindermann, Fabian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," IZA Discussion Papers 15224, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    5. Adrien Auclert & Hannes Malmberg & Frederic Martenet & Matthew Rognlie, 2021. "Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century," NBER Working Papers 29161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Mauro Pisu & Barbara Pels & Novella Bottini, 2015. "Improving infrastructure in the United Kingdom," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1244, OECD Publishing.
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    8. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25.
    9. Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 2006. "The Value of Health and Longevity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(5), pages 871-904, October.
    10. David Miles & Victoria Monro, 2021. "UK house prices and three decades of decline in the risk-free real interest rate [‘Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 36(108), pages 627-684.
    11. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Olimjon Saidmamatov & Yuldoshboy Sobirov & Sardorbek Makhmudov & Peter Marty & Shahnoza Yusupova & Ergash Ibadullaev & Dilnavoz Toshnazarova, 2024. "Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-14, October.
    2. Jaimes, Richard & Westerhout, Ed, 2023. "Optimal policies in an ageing society," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographics; Fertility; Economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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