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Economic effects of demographic dividend in Brazilian regions

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  • Baerlocher, Diogo
  • Parente, Stephen L.
  • Rios-Neto, Eduardo

Abstract

Exploiting heterogeneity across Brazilian micro-regions over the 1970–2000 period, this paper examines whether the demographic dividend extends beyond a pure accounting effect. Using a Sys-GMM approach, it finds evidence that changes in age structure have only pure accounting effects after controlling for human capital. Therefore, in the case of Brazilian micro-regions, there is a second demographic dividend, which is associated with education. This second dividend is the far more important of the two dividends in terms of economic growth. In a counterfactual exercise, we show that the accounting effect is responsible for less that 10% of the income gap between the poorest and richest regions in Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Baerlocher, Diogo & Parente, Stephen L. & Rios-Neto, Eduardo, 2019. "Economic effects of demographic dividend in Brazilian regions," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:14:y:2019:i:c:s2212828x18301075
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2019.100198
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    Cited by:

    1. Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo & Lobo Alves Ferreira, Matheus, 2021. "The evolution of labor force participation and the expected length of retirement in Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    2. Junkai Qi & Jamal Hussain & Yexing Yin & Anwar Khan, 2023. "Agricultural productivity‐environmental sustainability nexus through the lens of digitalization and energy intensity in BRICS countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 2357-2382, November.
    3. Olaniyan, Olanrewaju & Olasehinde, Noah & Odufuwa, Oyeteju & Awodumi, Olabanji, 2021. "The nature and extent of demographic dividend in West Africa: National transfer account approach," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    4. Malmberg Anders & Malmberg Bo & Maskell Peter, 2023. "Population age structure – An underlying driver of national, regional and urban economic development," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 67(4), pages 217-233, December.
    5. Rocha de Jesus Fernandes, Anderson & Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo, 2024. "Aging, education and some other implications for the silver dividend in developing countries: Evidence from Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    6. Lamar Crombach & Jeroen Smits, 2022. "The Demographic Window of Opportunity and Economic Growth at Sub-National Level in 91 Developing Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 171-189, May.
    7. Baerlocher, Diogo & Parente, Stephen L. & Rios-Neto, Eduardo, 2021. "Female Labor Force Participation and economic growth: Accounting for the gender bonus," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic dividend; Education dividend; Convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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