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Confronting when uncertainty-as-unknowability is mismodelled in entrepreneurship

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  • Arend, Richard J.

Abstract

Uncertainty has been and continues to be misunderstood, in the forms it can take, in its definitions, and in how it and its effects are modelled. That confusion is unhelpful for theorizing in general and, more specifically, it is detrimental for the study of entrepreneurship, given our field’s intimate if not existential connection with uncertainty. When the confusion is caused by a mischaracterization of uncertainty that is represented in mathematical form – eliminating any definitional and operational ambiguities – then that poses a severe problem that requires redress if we are to remain legitimate as a scientific field. The focus of this piece is on a critical assessment of a recent and visible paper that claims to model uncertainty in its equations but we argue does not. We first to critique the example, focusing on uncertainty-related issues (while also considering other modelling problems that make the paper’s insights into uncertainty questionable), and second we consider feedback over our critique itself (so as to identify impediments to clarifying the issues surrounding uncertainty that exist in our field).

Suggested Citation

  • Arend, Richard J., 2022. "Confronting when uncertainty-as-unknowability is mismodelled in entrepreneurship," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobuve:v:18:y:2022:i:c:s2352673422000324
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbvi.2022.e00334
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ramoglou, Stratos, 2021. "Knowable opportunities in an unknowable future? On the epistemological paradoxes of entrepreneurship theory," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 36(2).
    2. Nicolai J. Foss & Peter G. Klein & Christian Bjørnskov, 2019. "The Context of Entrepreneurial Judgment: Organizations, Markets, and Institutions," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(6), pages 1197-1213, September.
    3. Gabriel A. Giménez Roche & Didier Calcei, 2021. "The role of demand routines in entrepreneurial judgment," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 209-235, January.
    4. Mark D. Packard & Brent B. Clark & Peter G. Klein, 2017. "Uncertainty Types and Transitions in the Entrepreneurial Process," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(5), pages 840-856, October.
    5. Raphael Amit & Lawrence Glosten & Eitan Muller, 1990. "Entrepreneurial Ability, Venture Investments, and Risk Sharing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(10), pages 1233-1246, October.
    6. Welter, Christopher & Kim, Sungho, 2018. "Effectuation under risk and uncertainty: A simulation model," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 100-116.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kaul, Aseem & Ganco, Martin & Raffiee, Joseph, 2022. "Response to “Confronting when uncertainty-as-unknowability is mismodelled in entrepreneurship”," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    2. Mayberry, Robert & Boles, James S. & Donthu, Naveen & Lucke, James T., 2024. "Crisis response in an era of Knightian uncertainty," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

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