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The rule of three: How the third event signals the emergence of a streak

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  • Carlson, Kurt A.
  • Shu, Suzanne B.

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  • Carlson, Kurt A. & Shu, Suzanne B., 2007. "The rule of three: How the third event signals the emergence of a streak," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 113-121, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:104:y:2007:i:1:p:113-121
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Theo Offerman & Joep Sonnemans, 2004. "What’s Causing Overreaction? An Experimental Investigation of Recency and the Hot‐hand Effect," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(3), pages 533-554, October.
    2. Rachel Croson & James Sundali, 2005. "The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 195-209, May.
    3. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    4. Rottenstreich, Yuval & Kivetz, Ran, 2006. "On decision making without likelihood judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 74-88, September.
    5. Joseph Johnson & Gerard J. Tellis & Deborah J. Macinnis, 2005. "Losers, Winners, and Biased Trades," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 32(2), pages 324-329, September.
    6. DiFonzo, Nicholas & Bordia, Prashant, 1997. "Rumor and Prediction: Making Sense (but Losing Dollars) in the Stock Market," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 329-353, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hilary, Gilles & Hsu, Charles, 2011. "Endogenous overconfidence in managerial forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 300-313, April.
    2. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2018. "Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 2019-2047, November.
    3. Justin Cox & Adam L. Schwartz & Bonnie F. Van Ness & Robert A. Van Ness, 2021. "The Predictive Power of College Football Spreads: Regular Season Versus Bowl Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 251-273, April.
    4. Krawinkler, Andreas & Breitenecker, Robert J. & Maresch, Daniela, 2022. "Heuristic decision-making in the green energy context:Bringing together simple rules and data-driven mathematical optimization," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    5. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2019. "Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers," Papers 1902.01265, arXiv.org.
    6. repec:cup:judgdm:v:6:y:2011:i:6:p:531-541 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Murtha, Brian R., 2013. "Peaking at the right time: Perceptions, expectations, and effects," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 62-72.
    8. Christopher T. Ball, 2012. "Not all streaks are the same: Individual differences in risk preferences during runs of gains and losses," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 7(4), pages 452-461, July.
    9. Salaghe, Florina & Sundali, James & Nichols, Mark W. & Guerrero, Federico, 2020. "An empirical investigation of wagering behavior in a large sample of slot machine gamblers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 369-388.
    10. Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence that Belief in the Hot Hand is Justified," OSF Preprints pj79r, Center for Open Science.
    11. Simcha Avugos & Ofer H. Azar & Nadav Gavish & Eran Sher & Michael Bar-Eli, 2019. "Goal center width, how to count sequences, and the gambler's fallacy in soccer penalty shootouts," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 14(1), pages 98-108, January.
    12. Stephen T. Paul & Samantha Monda & S. Maria Olausson & Brenna Reed-Daley, 2014. "Effects of Apophenia on Multiple-Choice Exam Performance," SAGE Open, , vol. 4(4), pages 21582440145, November.
    13. Silverman, Jackie & Barasch, Alixandra P. & Small, Deborah A., 2023. "Hot streak! Inferences and predictions about goal adherence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    14. repec:cup:judgdm:v:14:y:2019:i:1:p:98-108 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:cup:judgdm:v:10:y:2015:i:5:p:416-428 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2014. "A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy," Working Papers 518, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    17. Miller, Joshua B. & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2021. "Is it a fallacy to believe in the hot hand in the NBA three-point contest?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    18. Sabine G. Scholl & Rainer Greifeneder, 2011. "Disentangling the effects of alternation rate and maximum run length on judgments of randomness," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(6), pages 531-541, August.
    19. repec:cup:judgdm:v:7:y:2012:i:4:p:452-461 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Sigrid Møyner Hohle & Karl Halvor Teigen, 2015. "Forecasting forecasts: The trend effect," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 10(5), pages 416-428, September.

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