IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmvana/v195y2023ics0047259x22001440.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multivariate α-stable distributions: VAR(1) processes, measures of dependence and their estimations

Author

Listed:
  • Karling, Maicon J.
  • Lopes, Sílvia R.C.
  • de Souza, Roberto M.

Abstract

Measuring the dependency between lagged random vectors in time series is extremely important to detect appropriate models for fitting real data. Vector autoregressive processes (VAR), in particular, are among the most popular multivariate time series that allow modeling schemes for two or more random variables. However, if the series of innovations process does not have finite second-order moments, the classical analysis that uses the empirical auto-covariance function is not adequate as its theoretical counterpart is not defined. After perceiving the lack of a suitable multivariate version of the codifference function, we propose an adaptation of this tool to measure interdependence in multivariate α-stable processes. We establish such a function based on notions presented in the existing literature. We also show some of its properties and give an estimator based on the empirical characteristic function. Subsequently, we evaluate another measure of dependence with different properties but similar usage for comparison reasons. These two measures are computed for VAR(1) processes with α-stable innovations, proving to be useful in the identification of associated patterns related to them. Finally, we demonstrate how these measures can be applied with real data sets by analyzing the monthly number of patients with community-acquired pneumonia and the registered values of PM10 in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, from January 2008 to December 2021.

Suggested Citation

  • Karling, Maicon J. & Lopes, Sílvia R.C. & de Souza, Roberto M., 2023. "Multivariate α-stable distributions: VAR(1) processes, measures of dependence and their estimations," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:195:y:2023:i:c:s0047259x22001440
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2022.105153
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047259X22001440
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmva.2022.105153?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. B. N. Cheng & S. T. Rachev, 1995. "Multivariate Stable Futures Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 133-153, April.
    2. Kokoszka, Piotr S. & Taqqu, Murad S., 1995. "Fractional ARIMA with stable innovations," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 19-47, November.
    3. Piotr S. Kokoszka & Murad S. Taqqu, 1994. "Infinite Variance Stable Arma Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 203-220, March.
    4. Dedi Rosadi & Manfred Deistler, 2011. "Estimating the codifference function of linear time series models with infinite variance," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 73(3), pages 395-429, May.
    5. Byczkowski, T. & Nolan, J. P. & Rajput, B., 1993. "Approximation of Multidimensional Stable Densities," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 13-31, July.
    6. Shawn Ni & Dongchu Sun, 2005. "Bayesian Estimates for Vector Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 105-117, January.
    7. Tsionas, Mike G., 2016. "Bayesian analysis of multivariate stable distributions using one-dimensional projections," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 185-193.
    8. Paulauskas, V. J., 1976. "Some remarks on multivariate stable distributions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 356-368, September.
    9. Jan Rosiński & Tomasz Żak, 1997. "The Equivalence of Ergodicity and Weak Mixing for Infinitely Divisible Processes," Journal of Theoretical Probability, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 73-86, January.
    10. Nolan, John P. & Ojeda-Revah, Diana, 2013. "Linear and nonlinear regression with stable errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 186-194.
    11. Rosadi, Dedi, 2009. "Testing for independence in heavy-tailed time series using the codifference function," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(12), pages 4516-4529, October.
    12. Mohammad Mohammadi & Adel Mohammadpour & Hiroaki Ogata, 2015. "On estimating the tail index and the spectral measure of multivariate $$\alpha $$ α -stable distributions," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 78(5), pages 549-561, July.
    13. Abdul-Hamid, Husein & Nolan, John P., 1998. "Multivariate Stable Densities as Functions of One Dimensional Projections," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 80-89, October.
    14. Wyłomańska, Agnieszka & Chechkin, Aleksei & Gajda, Janusz & Sokolov, Igor M., 2015. "Codifference as a practical tool to measure interdependence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 412-429.
    15. Medino, Ary V. & Lopes, Sílvia R.C. & Morgado, Rafael & Dorea, Chang C.Y., 2012. "Generalized Langevin equation driven by Lévy processes: A probabilistic, numerical and time series based approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(3), pages 572-581.
    16. Damarackas, Julius & Paulauskas, Vygantas, 2017. "Spectral covariance and limit theorems for random fields with infinite variance," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 156-175.
    17. B. Kodia & B. Garel, 2014. "Estimation and Comparison of Signed Symmetric Covariation Coefficient and Generalized Association Parameter for Alpha-stable Dependence Modeling," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(24), pages 5156-5174, December.
    18. Riccardo Passeggeri & Almut E. D. Veraart, 2019. "Mixing Properties of Multivariate Infinitely Divisible Random Fields," Journal of Theoretical Probability, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 1845-1879, December.
    19. Nolan, John P., 1998. "Parameterizations and modes of stable distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 187-195, June.
    20. Ogata, Hiroaki, 2013. "Estimation for multivariate stable distributions with generalized empirical likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 248-254.
    21. Aleksandra Grzesiek & Grzegorz Sikora & Marek Teuerle & Agnieszka Wyłomańska, 2020. "Spatio‐Temporal Dependence Measures for Bivariate AR(1) Models with α‐Stable Noise," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 454-475, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Damarackas, Julius & Paulauskas, Vygantas, 2017. "Spectral covariance and limit theorems for random fields with infinite variance," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 156-175.
    2. Tsionas, Mike G., 2016. "Bayesian analysis of multivariate stable distributions using one-dimensional projections," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 185-193.
    3. Aleksandra Grzesiek & Prashant Giri & S. Sundar & Agnieszka WyŁomańska, 2020. "Measures of Cross‐Dependence for Bidimensional Periodic AR(1) Model with α‐Stable Distribution," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(6), pages 785-807, November.
    4. Matsui, Muneya & Takemura, Akimichi, 2009. "Integral representations of one-dimensional projections for multivariate stable densities," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 334-344, March.
    5. Jabłońska-Sabuka, Matylda & Teuerle, Marek & Wyłomańska, Agnieszka, 2017. "Bivariate sub-Gaussian model for stock index returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 628-637.
    6. John Nolan, 2013. "Multivariate elliptically contoured stable distributions: theory and estimation," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 2067-2089, October.
    7. Tsionas, Mike, 2012. "Simple techniques for likelihood analysis of univariate and multivariate stable distributions: with extensions to multivariate stochastic volatility and dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 40966, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Aug 2012.
    8. Mahdi Teimouri & Saralees Nadarajah, 2022. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation for the Asymmetric Exponential Power Distribution," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 665-692, August.
    9. Bielak, Łukasz & Grzesiek, Aleksandra & Janczura, Joanna & Wyłomańska, Agnieszka, 2021. "Market risk factors analysis for an international mining company. Multi-dimensional, heavy-tailed-based modelling," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Paola Stolfi & Mauro Bernardi & Lea Petrella, 2018. "The sparse method of simulated quantiles: An application to portfolio optimization," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(3), pages 375-398, August.
    11. W. D. Walls & Jordi McKenzie, 2020. "Black swan models for the entertainment industry with an application to the movie business," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 3019-3032, December.
    12. Ogata, Hiroaki, 2013. "Estimation for multivariate stable distributions with generalized empirical likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 248-254.
    13. Abdul-Hamid, Husein & Nolan, John P., 1998. "Multivariate Stable Densities as Functions of One Dimensional Projections," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 80-89, October.
    14. Calzolari, Giorgio & Halbleib, Roxana, 2018. "Estimating stable latent factor models by indirect inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 280-301.
    15. Peligrad, Magda & Sang, Hailin & Xiao, Yimin & Yang, Guangyu, 2022. "Limit theorems for linear random fields with innovations in the domain of attraction of a stable law," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 596-621.
    16. Vitalii Makogin & Marco Oesting & Albert Rapp & Evgeny Spodarev, 2021. "Long range dependence for stable random processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 161-185, March.
    17. Mohammad Mohammadi & Adel Mohammadpour & Hiroaki Ogata, 2015. "On estimating the tail index and the spectral measure of multivariate $$\alpha $$ α -stable distributions," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 78(5), pages 549-561, July.
    18. Levy, Joshua B. & Taqqu, Murad S., 2014. "The asymptotic codifference and covariation of log-fractional stable noise," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 181(1), pages 34-43.
    19. Kokoszka, Piotr S. & Taqqu, Murad S., 1996. "Infinite variance stable moving averages with long memory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 79-99, July.
    20. Ramona Serrano Bautista & Leovardo Mata Mata, 2018. "Estimación del VaR mediante un modelo condicional multivariado bajo la hipótesis α-estable sub-Gaussiana. (A conditional approach to VaR with multivariate α-stable sub-Gaussian distributions)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 43-76, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:195:y:2023:i:c:s0047259x22001440. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/622892/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.