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How does population aging affect the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus over the business cycle?

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  • Honda, Jiro
  • Miyamoto, Hiroaki

Abstract

What is the impact of population aging on the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus over the business cycle? We address this question by estimating state-dependent fiscal multipliers in member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). A government spending shock is identified as a forecast error of government spending and its output effect is estimated by using the local projection method. We find that there is no effect of population aging on output effects of fiscal spending shocks in expansionary times, whereas in recessions the output effects of fiscal spending shocks are weakened as population ages. This result points to important policy implications in that population aging would call for a larger fiscal stimulus to support aggregate demand during recession. Thus, this requires a larger fiscal space to allow for a wider swing of the fiscal position without creating concerns for fiscal sustainability.

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  • Honda, Jiro & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2021. "How does population aging affect the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus over the business cycle?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:68:y:2021:i:c:s0164070421000021
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2021.103288
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    Cited by:

    1. Puonti, Päivi, 2023. "Effective Fiscal Policy in an Aging Economy: Evidence from a BVAR Analysis," ETLA Working Papers 110, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. Chun-Hung Kuo & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2023. "Public investment and labor market flexibility," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(2), pages 1122-1132.
    3. Bessho, Shun-ichiro, 2021. "Local fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. MIyamoto Hiroaki & Yoshino Naoyuki, 2021. "Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Aging Economies," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 17(3), pages 1-18, November.
    5. Joseph Kopecky, 2021. "The Age for Austerity? Population Age Structure and Fiscal Multipliers," Trinity Economics Papers tep1621, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    6. Bodnár, Katalin & Nerlich, Carolin, 2022. "The macroeconomic and fiscal impact of population ageing," Occasional Paper Series 296, European Central Bank.
    7. Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2024. "Fiscal policy in the post pandemic," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 529-546, August.
    8. Kopecky, Joseph, 2022. "The age for austerity? Population age structure and fiscal consolidation multipliers," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Rabia Rafique & Asad Nisar & Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah, 2024. "Testing the effects of fiscal policy shocks on output growth in recession and expansion: empirical evidence from developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-26, June.
    10. Morita, Hiroshi, 2022. "On the relationship between fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan: Theory and empirics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Fiscal multipliers; Population aging; Business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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