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Housing Wealth Effects: Cross-sectional Evidence from New Vehicle Registrations

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Gillitzer

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Jin Cong Wang

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

Understanding the relationship between housing wealth and consumption is important, because it informs the extent to which fluctuations in house prices might affect the broader economy. We investigate the relationship between housing wealth and consumption using postcode-level variation in house prices and administrative data on new passenger vehicle registrations as a proxy for consumption. In our preferred specification, we estimate an elasticity of new passenger vehicle registrations with respect to gross housing wealth of 0.4–0.5, and an average marginal propensity to consume (MPC) for new passenger vehicles of about 0.06 cents per dollar change in gross housing wealth. Assuming new vehicle registrations and total consumption have the same sensitivity to changes in housing wealth implies an MPC for total consumption of 2 cents per dollar change in gross housing wealth. But US evidence indicates that new vehicle consumption is particularly sensitive to changes in housing wealth. Assuming the same is true for Australia, our estimates imply an MPC for total consumption of less than 0.25 cents. Notably, we find evidence that the relationship between house prices and new vehicle registrations is heterogenous in income, with low-income households having a higher propensity to purchase a new vehicle following a rise in housing wealth than high-income households. This implies that the distribution of changes in house prices is relevant for understanding its effect on aggregate consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Gillitzer & Jin Cong Wang, 2015. "Housing Wealth Effects: Cross-sectional Evidence from New Vehicle Registrations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2015-08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Gillitzer & Jin Cong Wang, 2015. "Housing Wealth Effects: Evidence from New Vehicle Registrations," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 13-20, September.
    2. Christopher G Gibbs & Jonathan Hambur & Gabriela Nodari, 2018. "DSGE Reno: Adding a Housing Block to a Small Open Economy Model," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Fiona Price & Benjamin Beckers & Gianni La Cava, 2019. "The Effect of Mortgage Debt on Consumer Spending: Evidence from Household-level Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2019-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption; house prices;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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