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Pass-through of oil supply shocks to domestic gasoline prices: evidence from daily data

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  • Shioji, Etsuro

Abstract

Oil prices react to various types of shocks, and their impacts could reach our lives quickly. For example, on one day, we might hear on the radio that OPEC has decided to cut their oil production for the next year, and, only a few days later, find out that our local gasoline station has just raised the price. This paper examines daily data on gasoline prices, produced by a price comparison site in Japan, to estimate how they respond to a shock that hit the world oil market. In doing so, we take seriously the possibility that an increase in oil prices might cause different reactions depending on the source of the change. This paper focuses on one particular type of shock, namely changes in expectations about future supplies of crude oil. Identification is achieved via estimating a version of the Structural VAR with External Instruments (SVAR-IV or proxy-VAR) coupled with High Frequency Identification (HFI). The result confirms that pass-through is indeed very fast: about 70% of the entire adjustment process is completed within just 18 days.

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  • Shioji, Etsuro, 2021. "Pass-through of oil supply shocks to domestic gasoline prices: evidence from daily data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:98:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321001195
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105214
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    2. Wang, Tiantian & Wu, Fei & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "Energy market reforms in China and the time-varying connectedness of domestic and international markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    SVAR-IV (or proxy VAR); High frequency identification; News shock; Oil price; Pass-through;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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