IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v29y2010i5p919-937.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How well does nonlinear mean reversion solve the PPP puzzle?

Author

Listed:
  • Norman, Stephen

Abstract

This paper addresses the degree to which models which exhibit nonlinear mean reversion (NMR) present a resolution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle. This paper develops a method of estimating a representative distribution of half lives which is based upon the observed distribution of shocks in a given time series rather than choosing shock sizes arbitrarily which is the current practice in the literature. This approach is implemented with data on five real exchange rates. The empirical analysis shows that half lives shorter than the consensus are observed frequently enough to support the proposition that NMR is a solution to the PPP puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Norman, Stephen, 2010. "How well does nonlinear mean reversion solve the PPP puzzle?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 919-937, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:5:p:919-937
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261-5606(10)00016-1
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James R. Lothian & Mark P. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod‐Balassa‐Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    2. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    3. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    4. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
    5. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1993. "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 871-907, July.
    6. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2002. "The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
    7. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    8. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
    9. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June.
    10. Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2006. "On the speed of adjustment in ESTAR models when allowance is made for bias in estimation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 272-277, February.
    11. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
    12. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Chowdhury, Ibrahim, 2004. "Nonlinear dynamics in deviations from the law of one price: a broad-based empirical study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-25, February.
    13. Alvaro Escribano & Oscar Jorda, "undated". "Improved Testing And Specification Of Smooth Transition Regression Models," Department of Economics 97-26, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    14. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
    15. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert Kelm, 2017. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle and Imperfect Knowledge: The Case of the Polish Zloty," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, March.
    2. Meher Manzur, 2018. "Exchange rate economics is always and everywhere controversial," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 216-232, January.
    3. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Longaric, Pablo Anaya & Rubaszek, Michał, 2021. "The predictive power of equilibrium exchange rate models," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 7.
    4. Mark Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2012. "PPP in OECD Countries: An Analysis of Real Exchange Rate Stationarity, Cross-Sectional Dependency and Structural Breaks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 767-783, November.
    5. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Jakub Muck & Michal Rubaszek, 2016. "Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 585-609, July.
    6. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Rubaszek, Michał, 2023. "How many fundamentals should we include in the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    7. Beckmann, Joscha, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment, purchasing power parity and the role of nominal exchange rates and prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 176-190.
    8. Michael Takudzwa Pasara & Vincent Mugwira, 2023. "Exchange Rate (MIS-) Alignment: An Application of the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (beer) Approach to Zimbabwe (1990-2018)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 128-141, September.
    9. repec:zbw:rwirep:0272 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Zorzi, Michele Ca’ & Rubaszek, Michał, 2020. "Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Adrian Marek Burda & Blazej Mazur & Mateusz Pawel Pipien, 2017. "Forecasting EUR/PLN Exchange Rate: the Role of Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis in ESTVEC Models," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17, pages 97-114.
    12. Joscha Beckmann, 2011. "Nonlinear Adjustment, Purchasing Power Parity and the Role of Nominal Exchange Rates and Prices," Ruhr Economic Papers 0272, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Michal Rubaszek, 2012. "Real exchange rate forecasting: a calibrated half-life PPP model can beat the random walk," NBP Working Papers 123, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    14. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2021. "Nonlinearities and asymmetric adjustment to PPP in an exchange rate model with inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(6), pages 937-959, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2006. "Temporal aggregation of an ESTAR process: some implications for purchasing power parity adjustment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 655-668, July.
    2. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Ryu, Deockhyun, 2015. "A nonparametric study of real exchange rate persistence over a century," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 406-418.
    3. Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "A nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 589-604.
    4. Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "A nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 589-604, July.
    5. Beckmann, Joscha, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment, purchasing power parity and the role of nominal exchange rates and prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 176-190.
    6. Miguel Carvalho & Paulo Júlio, 2012. "Digging out the PPP hypothesis: an integrated empirical coverage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 713-744, June.
    7. repec:zbw:rwirep:0272 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Joscha Beckmann, 2011. "Nonlinear Adjustment, Purchasing Power Parity and the Role of Nominal Exchange Rates and Prices," Ruhr Economic Papers 0272, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Jyh‐Lin Wu & Pei‐Fen Chen & Ching‐Nun Lee, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity, Productivity Differentials And Non‐Linearity," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(3), pages 271-287, June.
    10. El-Gamal, Mahmoud A. & Ryu, Deockhyun, 2006. "Short-memory and the PPP hypothesis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 361-391, March.
    11. JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    12. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2008. "A revisit on dissecting the PPP puzzle: Evidence from a nonlinear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 684-695, July.
    13. Jyh‐Lin Wu & Pei‐Fen Chen, 2006. "Price Indices and Nonlinear Mean‐Reversion of Real Exchange Rates," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(2), pages 461-471, October.
    14. Efthymios Pavlidis & Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2010. "Further empirical evidence on the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly," Working Papers 447022, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    15. Stephen Norman, 2009. "Testing for a unit root against ESTAR nonlinearity with a delay parameter greater than one," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2152-2173.
    16. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2010. "Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime star Model," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 99-100, pages 395-427.
    17. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "On the performance of a nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity in the presence of linearity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(14), pages 1389-1396.
    18. Pippenger, John, 2004. "The Modern Theory of the LOP and PPP: Some Implications," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt60z886n7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    19. I Paya & D Peel, 2005. "A new analysis of the determinants of the real dollar-sterling exchange rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers 565953, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    20. I Paya & D Peel, 2006. "On the relationship between Nominal Exchange Rates and domestic and foreign prices," Working Papers 577409, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    21. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "Nonlinearity in real exchange rates: an approach with disaggregated data and a new linearity test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(11), pages 1125-1132.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    C22 F31 Nonlinear impulse response analysis Purchasing power parity Half life Smooth transition autoregressive model Real exchange rates;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:5:p:919-937. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.