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Forward premiums as unbiased predictors of future currency depreciation: a non-parametric analysis

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  • Yangru Wu
  • Hua Zhang

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  • Yangru Wu & Hua Zhang, 1997. "Forward premiums as unbiased predictors of future currency depreciation: a non-parametric analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 609-623, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:16:y:1997:i:4:p:609-623
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    1. Cornell, Bradford, 1989. "The impact of data errors on measurement of the foreign exchange risk premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 147-157, March.
    2. Cornell, Bradford, 1977. "Spot rates, forward rates and exchange market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 55-65, August.
    3. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-449, June.
    4. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
    5. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(1), pages 139-161.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April.
    7. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1.
    8. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    9. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    10. Yangru Wu & Hua Zhang, 1996. "Asymmetry in forward exchange rate bias: A puzzling result," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 407-411, March.
    11. Kaminsky, Graciela & Peruga, Rodrigo, 1990. "Can a time-varying risk premium explain excess returns in the forward market for foreign exchange?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 47-70, February.
    12. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
    13. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1981. "Flexible Exchange Rates, Prices, and the Role of "News": Lessons from the 1970s," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 665-705, August.
    14. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Korniejczuk & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2024. "Statistical arbitrage in multi-pair trading strategy based on graph clustering algorithms in US equities market," Working Papers 2024-09, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    2. Grossmann, Axel & Simpson, Marc W., 2010. "Forecasting the Yen/U.S. Dollar exchange rate: Empirical evidence from a capital enhanced relative PPP-based model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 476-484, October.
    3. Lothian, James R. & Wu, Liuren, 2011. "Uncovered interest-rate parity over the past two centuries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 448-473, April.
    4. Alex Maynard, 2006. "The forward premium anomaly: statistical artefact or economic puzzle? New evidence from robust tests," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1244-1281, November.
    5. HOROBET Alexandra Lavinia & DUMITRESCU Sorin-Adrian & DUMITRESCU Dan-Gabriel, 2009. "Exchange Rates And Volatility In Central And Eastern Europe: A Test For Uncovered Interest Parity," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 552-557, May.
    6. Grossmann, Axel & Lee, Allissa A. & Simpson, Marc W., 2014. "Forward premium anomaly of the British pound and the euro," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 140-156.
    7. Simpson, Marc W. & Grossmann, Axel, 2014. "An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads, purchasing power parity disequilibria, and forward premium asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
    8. Benninga, Simon Z. & Oosterhof, Casper M., 2004. "Hedging with forwards and puts in complete and incomplete markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-17, January.
    9. Leung, Mark T. & Daouk, Hazem & Chen, An-Sing, 2000. "Forecasting stock indices: a comparison of classification and level estimation models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 173-190.
    10. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Toan Pham, 2000. "Modeling the Currency Forward Risk Premium: Theory and Evidence," Research Paper Series 41, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. Angelos Kanas & Christos Ioannidis, 2012. "Revisiting the forward—spot relation: an application of the nonparametric long-run correlation coefficient," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 148-161, January.
    12. Ramaprasad Bhar, 2010. "Stochastic Filtering with Applications in Finance," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7736, August.
    13. Azzam, Islam & El-Masry, Ahmed A. & Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Foreign exchange market efficiency during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 717-730.
    14. Grossmann, Axel & Simpson, Marc W., 2015. "Bid-ask spreads, deviations from PPP and the forward prediction error: The case of the British pound and the euro," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 124-139.
    15. Yangru Wu & Hua Zhang, 1996. "Asymmetry in forward exchange rate bias: A puzzling result," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 407-411, March.
    16. Phichhang Ou & Hengshan Wang, 2009. "Prediction of Stock Market Index Movement by Ten Data Mining Techniques," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 3(12), pages 1-28, December.

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