IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v139y2021i3p770-799.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Systematic risk, debt maturity, and the term structure of credit spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Hui
  • Xu, Yu
  • Yang, Jun

Abstract

We document several facts about corporate debt maturity: (1) debt maturity is pro-cyclical, (2) higher-beta firms tend to have longer maturity, and (3) shorter maturity amplifies the sensitivity of credit spreads to aggregate shocks. We present a dynamic capital structure model that explains these facts. In the model, leverage and maturity choices are interdependent, which reflect the tradeoffs of liquidity discounts of long-term debt, repayment risks of short-term debt, and the benefit of short-term debt as a commitment device for timely leverage adjustments. Additionally, the model helps quantify the effects of maturity dynamics on the term structure of credit spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Hui & Xu, Yu & Yang, Jun, 2021. "Systematic risk, debt maturity, and the term structure of credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 770-799.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:139:y:2021:i:3:p:770-799
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.09.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X20302610
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.09.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bai, Jennie & Goldstein, Robert S. & Yang, Fan, 2020. "Is the credit spread puzzle a myth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 297-319.
    2. Hovakimian, Armen & Opler, Tim & Titman, Sheridan, 2001. "The Debt-Equity Choice," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-24, March.
    3. Stohs, Mark Hoven & Mauer, David C, 1996. "The Determinants of Corporate Debt Maturity Structure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 279-312, July.
    4. Guedes, Jose & Opler, Tim, 1996. "The Determinants of the Maturity of Corporate Debt Issues," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1809-1833, December.
    5. Isil Erel & Brandon Julio & Woojin Kim & Michael S. Weisbach, 2012. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Capital Raising," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(2), pages 341-376.
    6. Darrell Duffie & Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Valuation in Over-the-Counter Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1865-1900, November.
    7. Anat R. Admati & Peter M. Demarzo & Martin F. Hellwig & Paul Pfleiderer, 2018. "The Leverage Ratchet Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 145-198, February.
    8. Hackbarth, Dirk & Miao, Jianjun & Morellec, Erwan, 2006. "Capital structure, credit risk, and macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 519-550, December.
    9. Goldstein, Robert & Ju, Nengjiu & Leland, Hayne, 2001. "An EBIT-Based Model of Dynamic Capital Structure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(4), pages 483-512, October.
    10. Christopher A. Hennessy & Toni M. Whited, 2007. "How Costly Is External Financing? Evidence from a Structural Estimation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1705-1745, August.
    11. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    12. Viral V. Acharya & Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello, 2013. "Aggregate Risk and the Choice between Cash and Lines of Credit," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 2059-2116, October.
    13. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Rollover Risk and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 391-430, April.
    14. Thompson, Samuel B., 2011. "Simple formulas for standard errors that cluster by both firm and time," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 1-10, January.
    15. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein, 2010. "A Gap‐Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(3), pages 993-1028, June.
    16. Julien Hugonnier & Semyon Malamud & Erwan Morellec, 2015. "Capital Supply Uncertainty, Cash Holdings, and Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(2), pages 391-445.
    17. Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2014. "Endogenous Liquidity and Defaultable Bonds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1443-1508, July.
    18. Darrell Duffie, 2012. "Over-The-Counter Markets," Introductory Chapters, in: Dark Markets: Asset Pricing and Information Transmission in Over-the-Counter Markets, Princeton University Press.
    19. Hui Chen & Rui Cui & Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2018. "Quantifying Liquidity and Default Risks of Corporate Bonds over the Business Cycle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 852-897.
    20. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2171-2212, December.
    21. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-664, May.
    22. Flannery, Mark J, 1986. "Asymmetric Information and Risky Debt Maturity Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 19-37, March.
    23. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    24. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    25. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    26. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    27. Baker, Malcolm & Greenwood, Robin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2003. "The maturity of debt issues and predictable variation in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 261-291, November.
    28. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    29. Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2007. "Do Tests of Capital Structure Theory Mean What They Say?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1747-1787, August.
    30. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Aggregate Dynamics of Capital Structure and Macroeconomic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4187-4241, December.
    31. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    32. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    33. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Levered Equity Risk Premium and Credit Spreads: A Unified Framework," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 645-703, February.
    34. Mian, Atif & Santos, João A.C., 2018. "Liquidity risk and maturity management over the credit cycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 264-284.
    35. Choi, Jaewon & Hackbarth, Dirk & Zechner, Josef, 2018. "Corporate debt maturity profiles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 484-502.
    36. Mark T. Leary & Michael R. Roberts, 2005. "Do Firms Rebalance Their Capital Structures?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2575-2619, December.
    37. Barclay, Michael J & Smith, Clifford W, Jr, 1995. "The Maturity Structure of Corporate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 609-631, June.
    38. Jack Bao & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang, 2011. "The Illiquidity of Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 911-946, June.
    39. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    40. Thomas Dangl & Josef Zechner, 2021. "Debt Maturity and the Dynamics of Leverage [Rollover risk and market freezes]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(12), pages 5796-5840.
    41. Douglas W. Diamond, 1991. "Debt Maturity Structure and Liquidity Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 709-737.
    42. Hui Chen & Gustavo Manso, 2017. "Macroeconomic Risk and Debt Overhang," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 1-38.
    43. Bolton, Patrick & Chen, Hui & Wang, Neng, 2013. "Market timing, investment, and risk management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 40-62.
    44. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2001. "Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1929-1957, October.
    46. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:19-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    47. Hayne Leland, 2019. "Bond Prices, Yield Spreads, and Optimal Capital Structure with Default Risk," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 40(3), pages 45-75.
    48. Hayne E. Leland., 1998. "Agency Costs, Risk Management, and Capital Structure," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-278, University of California at Berkeley.
    49. Nan Chen & S. G. Kou, 2009. "Credit Spreads, Optimal Capital Structure, And Implied Volatility With Endogenous Default And Jump Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 343-378, July.
    50. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
    51. Custódio, Cláudia & Ferreira, Miguel A. & Laureano, Luís, 2013. "Why are US firms using more short-term debt?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 182-212.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cortina, Juan J. & Didier, Tatiana & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Global corporate debt during crises: Implications of switching borrowing across markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Chaderina, Maria & Weiss, Patrick & Zechner, Josef, 2022. "The maturity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 670-694.
    3. Jiang, Zhiqian & Xu, Yue & Fang, Mei & Tang, Ziling & Tao, Chunhua, 2023. "How does the bond market price corporate ESG engagement? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1406-1423.
    4. Lee, Kyeong Hun & Mauer, David C. & Xu, Emma Q., 2022. "Selling durables: Financial flexibility for limited cost pass-through," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Mohsin, Muhammad & Ullah, Hafeez & Iqbal, Nadeem & Iqbal, Wasim & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2021. "How external debt led to economic growth in South Asia: A policy perspective analysis from quantile regression," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 423-437.
    6. Byun, Seong K. & Lin, Zhilu & Wei, Siqi, 2021. "Are U.S. firms using more short-term debt?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Wei, Xu & Xiao, Xiao & Zhou, Yi & Zhou, Yimin, 2023. "Spillover effects between liquidity risks through endogenous debt maturity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    8. Poeschl, Johannes, 2023. "Corporate debt maturity and investment over the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Andy - & S. H. Hengky, 2021. "Contraction of Capital Investment in Retail Trade Sub-Sector Companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 11(3), pages 19-34, December.
    10. Benzoni, Luca & Garlappi, Lorenzo & Goldstein, Robert S. & Ying, Chao, 2022. "Debt dynamics with fixed issuance costs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 385-402.
    11. Dasgupta, Amil & Choi, Jaewon & Oh, Ji Yeol Jimmy, 2019. "Bond Funds and Credit Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14134, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Ali Gungoraydinoglu & Özde Öztekin, 2022. "Financial crises, banking regulations, and corporate financing patterns around the world," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 506-539, September.
    13. Dominika Gajdosikova & Katarina Valaskova & Tomas Kliestik & Maria Kovacova, 2023. "Research on Corporate Indebtedness Determinants: A Case Study of Visegrad Group Countries," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-30, January.
    14. Zhou, Mengling & Huang, Zizhen & Jiang, Kangqi, 2024. "Environmental, social, and governance performance and corporate debt maturity in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    15. Yao, Lianjun & Qiu, Yuting, 2024. "Market liquidity, credit maturity structure and asset mismatch in manufacturing firms," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    16. Zhiyao Chen & Ran Duchin, 2024. "Do Nonfinancial Firms Use Financial Assets to Take Risk?," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-37.
    17. Gyimah, Daniel & Danso, Albert & Adu-Ameyaw, Emmanuel & Boateng, Agyenim, 2022. "Firm-level political risk and corporate leverage decisions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Wu, Julia Yonghua & Opare, Solomon & Bhuiyan, Md. Borhan Uddin & Habib, Ahsan, 2022. "Determinants and consequences of debt maturity structure: A systematic review of the international literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    19. Nils Friewald & Florian Nagler & Christian Wagner, 2022. "Debt Refinancing and Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2287-2329, August.
    20. Chiu, Wan-Chien & King, Tao-Hsien Dolly & Wang, Chih-Wei, 2021. "Debt maturity dispersion and the cost of bank loans," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hui Chen & Yu Xu & Jun Yang, 2012. "Systematic Risk, Debt Maturity and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Staff Working Papers 12-27, Bank of Canada.
    2. Nils Friewald & Florian Nagler & Christian Wagner, 2022. "Debt Refinancing and Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2287-2329, August.
    3. Hugonnier, Julien & Malamud, Semyon & Morellec, Erwan, 2015. "Credit market frictions and capital structure dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 1130-1158.
    4. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Rollover Risk and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 391-430, April.
    5. Benzoni, Luca & Garlappi, Lorenzo & Goldstein, Robert S. & Ying, Chao, 2022. "Debt dynamics with fixed issuance costs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 385-402.
    6. Della Seta, Marco & Morellec, Erwan & Zucchi, Francesca, 2020. "Short-term debt and incentives for risk-taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 179-203.
    7. Luca Benzoni & Lorenzo Garlappi & Robert Goldstein, 2023. "Incomplete Information, Debt Issuance, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4331-4352, July.
    8. Luca Benzoni & Lorenzo Garlappi & Robert S. Goldstein & Julien Hugonnier & Chao Ying, 2020. "Optimal Debt Dynamics, Issuance Costs, and Commitment," Working Paper Series WP-2020-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    9. Murphy, Austin & Headley, Adrian, 2022. "An empirical evaluation of alternative fundamental models of credit spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Thomas Dangl & Josef Zechner, 2021. "Debt Maturity and the Dynamics of Leverage [Rollover risk and market freezes]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(12), pages 5796-5840.
    11. Perrakis, Stylianos & Zhong, Rui, 2015. "Credit spreads and state-dependent volatility: Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 215-231.
    12. Peter M. Demarzo & Zhiguo He, 2021. "Leverage Dynamics without Commitment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1195-1250, June.
    13. Haque, Sharjil & Varghese, Richard, 2023. "Firms’ rollover risk, capital structure and unequal exposure to aggregate shocks," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2171-2212, December.
    16. Andrea Gamba & Alessio Saretto, 2023. "Debt Maturity and Commitment on Firm Policies," Working Papers 2303, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    17. Niu, Huawei & Hua, Wei, 2019. "An endogenous structural credit risk model incorporating with moral hazard and rollover risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 47-59.
    18. Patrick Bolton & Ye Li & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2020. "Dynamic Banking and the Value of Deposits," NBER Working Papers 28298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Shi, Zhan, 2019. "Time-varying ambiguity, credit spreads, and the levered equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 617-646.
    20. Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2016. "Dynamic Debt Maturity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2677-2736.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Term structure; Business cycle; Maturity dynamics; Liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:139:y:2021:i:3:p:770-799. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.