IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jfinan/v77y2022i4p2287-2329.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Debt Refinancing and Equity Returns

Author

Listed:
  • NILS FRIEWALD
  • FLORIAN NAGLER
  • CHRISTIAN WAGNER

Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence that the maturity structure of financial leverage affects the cross‐section of equity returns. We find that short‐term leverage is associated with a positive premium, whereas long‐term leverage is not. The premium for short‐term compared to long‐term leverage reflects higher exposure of equity to systematic risk. To rationalize our findings, we show that the same patterns emerge in a model of debt rollover risk with endogenous leverage and debt maturity choice. Our results suggest that analyses of leverage effects in asset prices and corporate financial applications should account for the maturity structure of debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Nils Friewald & Florian Nagler & Christian Wagner, 2022. "Debt Refinancing and Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2287-2329, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:77:y:2022:i:4:p:2287-2329
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13162
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13162
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jofi.13162?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    2. Stohs, Mark Hoven & Mauer, David C, 1996. "The Determinants of Corporate Debt Maturity Structure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 279-312, July.
    3. Hui Chen & Rui Cui & Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2018. "Quantifying Liquidity and Default Risks of Corporate Bonds over the Business Cycle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 852-897.
    4. Viral V. Acharya & Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello, 2013. "Aggregate Risk and the Choice between Cash and Lines of Credit," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 2059-2116, October.
    5. Ali K. Ozdagli, 2012. "Financial Leverage, Corporate Investment, and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1033-1069.
    6. Douglas W. Diamond & Zhiguo He, 2014. "A Theory of Debt Maturity: The Long and Short of Debt Overhang," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 719-762, April.
    7. Guedes, Jose & Opler, Tim, 1996. "The Determinants of the Maturity of Corporate Debt Issues," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1809-1833, December.
    8. Murillo Campello & Long Chen & Lu Zhang, 2008. "Expected returns, yield spreads, and asset pricing tests," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1297-1338, May.
    9. Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2014. "Endogenous Liquidity and Defaultable Bonds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1443-1508, July.
    10. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Rollover Risk and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 391-430, April.
    11. Thomas Dangl & Josef Zechner, 2021. "Debt Maturity and the Dynamics of Leverage [Rollover risk and market freezes]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(12), pages 5796-5840.
    12. Ivo Welch, 2004. "Capital Structure and Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 106-131, February.
    13. Sheridan Titman & Sergey Tsyplakov, 2007. "A Dynamic Model of Optimal Capital Structure," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(3), pages 401-451.
    14. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    15. Goldstein, Robert & Ju, Nengjiu & Leland, Hayne, 2001. "An EBIT-Based Model of Dynamic Capital Structure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(4), pages 483-512, October.
    16. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    17. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
    18. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    19. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    20. George, Thomas J. & Hwang, Chuan-Yang, 2010. "A resolution of the distress risk and leverage puzzles in the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 56-79, April.
    21. Viral V. Acharya & Douglas Gale & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2011. "Rollover Risk and Market Freezes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1177-1209, August.
    22. Douglas W. Diamond, 1991. "Debt Maturity Structure and Liquidity Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 709-737.
    23. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2020. "Replicating Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2019-2133.
    24. Lorenzo Garlappi & Tao Shu & Hong Yan, 2008. "Default Risk, Shareholder Advantage, and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2743-2778, November.
    25. Dick-Nielsen, Jens & Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2012. "Corporate bond liquidity before and after the onset of the subprime crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 471-492.
    26. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    27. Friewald, Nils & Jankowitsch, Rainer & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2012. "Illiquidity or credit deterioration: A study of liquidity in the US corporate bond market during financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 18-36.
    28. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2171-2212, December.
    29. James L. Davis & Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2000. "Characteristics, Covariances, and Average Returns: 1929 to 1997," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 389-406, February.
    30. Moyen, Nathalie, 2007. "How big is the debt overhang problem?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 433-472, February.
    31. Chen, Hui & Xu, Yu & Yang, Jun, 2021. "Systematic risk, debt maturity, and the term structure of credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 770-799.
    32. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    33. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    34. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:19-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Martin Oehmke, 2013. "The Maturity Rat Race," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 483-521, April.
    36. Jaewon Choi, 2013. "What Drives the Value Premium?: The Role of Asset Risk and Leverage," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(11), pages 2845-2875.
    37. Johnson, T.C. & Chebonenko, T. & Cunha, I. & D'Almeida, F. & Spencer, X., 2011. "Endogenous leverage and expected stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 132-145, September.
    38. Gertner, Robert & Scharfstein, David, 1991. "A Theory of Workouts and the Effects of Reorganization Law," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1189-1222, September.
    39. Dirk Hackbarth & Rainer Haselmann & David Schoenherr, 2015. "Financial Distress, Stock Returns, and the 1978 Bankruptcy Reform Act," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(6), pages 1810-1847.
    40. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Childs, Paul D. & Mauer, David C. & Ott, Steven H., 2005. "Interactions of corporate financing and investment decisions: The effects of agency conflicts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 667-690, June.
    42. Hayne E. Leland., 1998. "Agency Costs, Risk Management, and Capital Structure," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-278, University of California at Berkeley.
    43. Jarrad Harford & Sandy Klasa & William F. Maxwell, 2014. "Refinancing Risk and Cash Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 975-1012, June.
    44. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    45. Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2016. "Dynamic Debt Maturity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2677-2736.
    46. Peter M. Demarzo & Zhiguo He, 2021. "Leverage Dynamics without Commitment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1195-1250, June.
    47. Michael L. Lemmon & Michael R. Roberts & Jaime F. Zender, 2008. "Back to the Beginning: Persistence and the Cross‐Section of Corporate Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1575-1608, August.
    48. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Levered Equity Risk Premium and Credit Spreads: A Unified Framework," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 645-703, February.
    49. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:2:p:507-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    50. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:3:p:1131-1147 is not listed on IDEAS
    51. Bhamra, Harjoat S. & Fisher, Adlai J. & Kuehn, Lars-Alexander, 2011. "Monetary policy and corporate default," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 480-494.
    52. Ing-Haw Cheng & Konstantin Milbradt, 2012. "The Hazards of Debt: Rollover Freezes, Incentives, and Bailouts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1070-1110.
    53. Barclay, Michael J & Smith, Clifford W, Jr, 1995. "The Maturity Structure of Corporate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 609-631, June.
    54. Jack Bao & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang, 2011. "The Illiquidity of Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 911-946, June.
    55. Elena Asparouhova & Hendrik Bessembinder & Ivalina Kalcheva, 2013. "Noisy Prices and Inference Regarding Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 665-714, April.
    56. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Shu-Feng & Kim, Yura & Kim, Seonmi & Song, Kyojik “Roy”, 2024. "Refinancing risk, earnings management, and stock return," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    2. Wang, Sumingyue & Wang, Xinlu & Xu, Liang, 2023. "Debt maturity structure and the quality of risk disclosures," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Pistolesi, Francesco & Teti, Emanuele, 2024. "Shedding light on the relationship between ESG ratings and systematic risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Hui & Xu, Yu & Yang, Jun, 2021. "Systematic risk, debt maturity, and the term structure of credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 770-799.
    2. Benzoni, Luca & Garlappi, Lorenzo & Goldstein, Robert S. & Ying, Chao, 2022. "Debt dynamics with fixed issuance costs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 385-402.
    3. Peter M. Demarzo & Zhiguo He, 2021. "Leverage Dynamics without Commitment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1195-1250, June.
    4. Thomas Dangl & Josef Zechner, 2021. "Debt Maturity and the Dynamics of Leverage [Rollover risk and market freezes]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(12), pages 5796-5840.
    5. Andrea Gamba & Alessio Saretto, 2023. "Debt Maturity and Commitment on Firm Policies," Working Papers 2303, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Jeon, Haejun & Nishihara, Michi, 2015. "The effects of business cycle and debt maturity on a firm's investment and default decisions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 326-351.
    7. Zhou, Yimin & Wei, Xu, 2023. "Bond liquidity, debt maturity and bond risk premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Chaderina, Maria & Weiss, Patrick & Zechner, Josef, 2022. "The maturity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 670-694.
    9. Adachi-Sato, Meg & Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2019. "Corporate debt maturity and future firm performance volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 216-237.
    10. Douglas W. Diamond & Zhiguo He, 2014. "A Theory of Debt Maturity: The Long and Short of Debt Overhang," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 719-762, April.
    11. Adachi-Sato, Meg & Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2019. "Corporate debt maturity and future firm performance volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 216-237.
    12. Chen, Zhiyao & Hackbarth, Dirk & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2022. "A unified model of distress risk puzzles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 357-384.
    13. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Bottazzi, Laura & Golinelli, Roberto, 2020. "A multilevel index of heterogeneous short-term and long-term debt dynamics," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    15. Wei, Xu & Xiao, Xiao & Zhou, Yi & Zhou, Yimin, 2023. "Spillover effects between liquidity risks through endogenous debt maturity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    16. Luca Benzoni & Lorenzo Garlappi & Robert S. Goldstein & Julien Hugonnier & Chao Ying, 2020. "Optimal Debt Dynamics, Issuance Costs, and Commitment," Working Paper Series WP-2020-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    17. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. Jamie Alcock & Eva Steiner, 2017. "The Interrelationships between REIT Capital Structure and Investment," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(3), pages 371-394, September.
    19. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Rollover Risk and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 391-430, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:77:y:2022:i:4:p:2287-2329. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.