IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jetheo/v220y2024ics0022053124000632.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The perils of fiscal feedback rules

Author

Listed:
  • Menuet, Maxime
  • Minea, Alexandru
  • Villieu, Patrick

Abstract

This paper introduces a fiscal feedback rule (FFR) in an endogenous growth model with public debt dynamics. We assume that part of the debt burden is covered by tax increases (we name this “sterilization”), while the remaining part is financed by issuing new debt. We show that while low sterilization does not ensure the existence of a long-run steady state, high sterilization can lead to multiple steady states and aggregate instability in the form of local and global indeterminacy, potentially condemning the economy to a low-growth/high-debt trap steady state and long-lasting public debt cycles. By combining econometric estimations and a calibration exercise on developed economies, we highlight that these various perils can occur for empirically plausible values of the sterilization coefficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Menuet, Maxime & Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2024. "The perils of fiscal feedback rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:220:y:2024:i:c:s0022053124000632
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2024.105857
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022053124000632
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jet.2024.105857?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Kose M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge Franziska & Sugawara Naotaka, 2022. "A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 233-268, December.
    3. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
    4. Antonio Ciccone & Giovanni Peri, 2006. "Identifying Human-Capital Externalities: Theory with Applications," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(2), pages 381-412.
    5. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    6. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1702-1725, September.
    7. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 617-650.
    8. Mauro, Paolo & Romeu, Rafael & Binder, Ariel & Zaman, Asad, 2015. "A modern history of fiscal prudence and profligacy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 55-70.
    9. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2008. "International evidence on fiscal solvency: Is fiscal policy "responsible"?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1081-1093, September.
    10. Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013. "Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 4-30, February.
    11. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    12. Matteo F. Ghilardi & Raffaele Rossi, 2014. "Aggregate Stability and Balanced‐Budget Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1787-1809, December.
    13. Tatiana Kirsanova & Mathan Satchi & David Vines & Simon Wren‐Lewis, 2007. "Optimal Fiscal Policy Rules in a Monetary Union," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1759-1784, October.
    14. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2000. "Fiscal policy, elastic labor supply, and endogenous growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 185-210, February.
    15. Barry Eichengreen & Asmaa El-Ganainy & Rui Esteves & Kris James Mitchener, 2019. "Public Debt Through the Ages," NBER Working Papers 25494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Park, Hyun & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2004. "Indeterminacy and fiscal policies in a growing economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 645-660, January.
    17. Jess Benhabib & Qinglai Meng & Kazuo Nishimura, 2012. "Indeterminacy Under Constant Returns to Scale in Multisector Economies," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 403-412, Springer.
    18. Bennett, Rosalind L. & Farmer, Roger E. A., 2000. "Indeterminacy with Non-separable Utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 118-143, July.
    19. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
    20. Florian Sniekers, 2018. "Persistence And Volatility Of Beveridge Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(2), pages 665-698, May.
    21. Daniel Cohen & Marcelo Soto, 2007. "Growth and human capital: good data, good results," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 51-76, March.
    22. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    23. Paul Beaudry & Dana Galizia & Franck Portier, 2020. "Putting the Cycle Back into Business Cycle Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(1), pages 1-47, January.
    24. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 381-399.
    25. Martin Kliem & Alexander Kriwoluzky, 2014. "Toward a Taylor Rule for Fiscal Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 294-302, April.
    26. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 319-350, May.
    27. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Balanced-Budget Rules, Distortionary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 976-1000, October.
    28. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    29. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    30. S M Ali Abbas & Nazim Belhocine & Asmaa El-Ganainy & Mark Horton, 2011. "Historical Patterns and Dynamics of Public Debt—Evidence From a New Database," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 717-742, November.
    31. Xavier Debrun & Tidiane Kinda, 2016. "That Squeezing Feeling: The Interest Burden and Public Debt Stabilization," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 147-178, June.
    32. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448, Elsevier.
    33. Bi, Huixin, 2012. "Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 389-410.
    34. Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2015. "How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 2015/248, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2005. "Primary Surpluses and sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2005/006, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-283, April.
    37. Rauch James E., 1993. "Productivity Gains from Geographic Concentration of Human Capital: Evidence from the Cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 380-400, November.
    38. Stefan Collignon, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Rules And The Sustainability Of Public Debt In Europe," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 539-567, May.
    39. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    40. Nourry, Carine & Seegmuller, Thomas & Venditti, Alain, 2013. "Aggregate instability under balanced-budget consumption taxes: A re-examination," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(5), pages 1977-2006.
    41. Moretti, Enrico, 2004. "Human capital externalities in cities," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 51, pages 2243-2291, Elsevier.
    42. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2013. "Pushing the limit? Fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2307-2321.
    43. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Žďárek, Václav, 2017. "Fiscal reaction function and fiscal fatigue: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2036, European Central Bank.
    44. Liviatan, Nissan, 1982. "Neutrality of government bonds reconsidered," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 261-270, November.
    45. Till Cordes & Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Miss Anke Weber, 2015. "Expenditure Rules: Effective Tools for Sound Fiscal Policy?," IMF Working Papers 2015/029, International Monetary Fund.
    46. Blinder, Alan S. & Solow, Robert M., 1973. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 319-337.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "The Peril of Fiscal Rules," Post-Print hal-02314996, HAL.
    2. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Budget Rules, Distortionnary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability: A reappraisal," Working Papers hal-02153856, HAL.
    3. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Increasing Returns, Balanced-Budget Rules, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Post-Print hal-02315041, HAL.
    4. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Žďárek, Václav, 2017. "Fiscal reaction function and fiscal fatigue: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2036, European Central Bank.
    5. Hyun Park, 2015. "Aggregate Instability and Fiscal Policies: Balanced Budget Rules and Productive Public Spending," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 31, pages 25-56.
    6. Maxime MENUET & Alexandru MINEA & Patrick VILLIEU, 2017. "Public Debt, Endogenous Growth Cycles and Indeterminacy," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2467, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    7. Leeper, E.M. & Leith, C., 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2305-2415, Elsevier.
    8. António Afonso & José Alves & Oļegs Matvejevs & Oļegs Tkačevs, 2023. "Fiscal Sustainability and the Role of Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10843, CESifo.
    9. Aldama, Pierre & Creel, Jérôme, 2022. "Real-time fiscal policy responses in the OECD from 1997 to 2018: Procyclical but sustainable?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Kevin X.D. Huang & Qinglai Meng & Jianpo Xue, 2018. "Balanced‐Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Endogenous Capital Utilization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1669-1709, December.
    11. Xavier Debrun & Tidiane Kinda, 2016. "That Squeezing Feeling: The Interest Burden and Public Debt Stabilization," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 147-178, June.
    12. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Systematic fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance: A critical overview of the literature," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-37.
    13. Kevin X.D. Huang & Qinglai Meng & Jianpo Xue, 2019. "Capital Income Taxation and Aggregate Instability," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 19-00007, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    14. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Rafał Trzeciakowski, 2015. "Windfall of Low Interest Payments and Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Analysis through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 475-510, November.
    15. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2020. "Economic Growth and the Environment: A Theoretical Reappraisal," DEOS Working Papers 2031, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    16. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Debrun, Xavier & Willems, Tim & Wyplosz, Charles, 2019. "Public Debt Sustainability," CEPR Discussion Papers 14010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Bella, Giovanni & Mattana, Paolo & Venturi, Beatrice, 2017. "Shilnikov chaos in the Lucas model of endogenous growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 451-477.
    18. Kevin x.d. Huang & Qinglai Meng & Jianpo Xue, 2019. "Capital Income Taxation and Aggregate Instability," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 19-00007, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    19. Lamia Bazzaoui & Jun Nagayasu, 2021. "Is Inflation Fiscally Determined?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-26, October.
    20. R. Golinelli & I. Mammi & A. Musolesi, 2018. "Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area," Working Papers wp1120, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal feedback rules; Sterilization; Economic growth; Public debt; Debt cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:220:y:2024:i:c:s0022053124000632. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622869 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.