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The perils of fiscal feedback rules

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  • Menuet, Maxime
  • Minea, Alexandru
  • Villieu, Patrick

Abstract

This paper introduces a fiscal feedback rule (FFR) in an endogenous growth model with public debt dynamics. We assume that part of the debt burden is covered by tax increases (we name this “sterilization”), while the remaining part is financed by issuing new debt. We show that while low sterilization does not ensure the existence of a long-run steady state, high sterilization can lead to multiple steady states and aggregate instability in the form of local and global indeterminacy, potentially condemning the economy to a low-growth/high-debt trap steady state and long-lasting public debt cycles. By combining econometric estimations and a calibration exercise on developed economies, we highlight that these various perils can occur for empirically plausible values of the sterilization coefficient.

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  • Menuet, Maxime & Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2024. "The perils of fiscal feedback rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:220:y:2024:i:c:s0022053124000632
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2024.105857
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal feedback rules; Sterilization; Economic growth; Public debt; Debt cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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