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How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles?

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  • Mr. Tigran Poghosyan

Abstract

We employ a duration model to study determinants of public debt cycles in 57 advanced and emerging economies over the 1960–2014 period, with a particular focus on the impact of financial cycles. The results suggest that the association between financial and debt cycles is asymmetric. Debt expansions preceded by overheating in credit and financial markets tend to last longer than other expansions, but there is no significant association between financial cycles and debt contractions. There is strong evidence of duration dependence in both phases of the cycle, with the likelihood of expansions and contractions to end increasing with the length of their respective spells. Higher initial level of debt increases the spell of contractions (persistence of adjustment effort hypothesis) and reduces the spell of expansions (debt sustainability hypothesis). This result is robust to the inclusion of global factors, openness, political stability, and debt crisis indicators as additional controls.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2015. "How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 2015/248, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/248
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    Cited by:

    1. Bassey Okon Ebi & Imoke Douglas Imoke, 2017. "Public Debt Carrying Capacity and Debt Transmission Channels: The Nigerian Experience," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 41-52.
    2. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "The Peril of Fiscal Rules," Post-Print hal-02314996, HAL.
    3. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2016. "The long history of financial boom-bust cycles in Iceland - Part II: Financial cycles," Economics wp72, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    4. Karminsky, A. & Dyachkova, N., 2020. "Empirical study of the relationship between credit cycles and changes in credit ratings," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 138-160.

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