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Robustly optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with housing

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  • Adam, Klaus
  • Woodford, Michael

Abstract

We analytically characterize optimal monetary policy for an augmented New Keynesian model with a housing sector. With rational private sector expectations about housing prices and inflation, optimal monetary policy can be characterized by a standard ‘target criterion’ that refers to inflation and the output gap, without making reference to housing prices. When the policymaker is concerned with potential departures of private sector expectations from rational ones and seeks a policy that is robust against such possible departures, then the optimal target criterion must also depend on housing prices. For empirically realistic cases, the central bank should then ‘lean against’ housing prices, i.e., following unexpected housing price increases (decreases), policy should adopt a stance that is projected to undershoot (overshoot) its normal targets for inflation and the output gap. Robustly optimal policy does not require that the central bank distinguishes between ‘fundamental’ and ‘non-fundamental’ movements in housing prices.

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  • Adam, Klaus & Woodford, Michael, 2021. "Robustly optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with housing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:198:y:2021:i:c:s0022053121001691
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2021.105352
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    Cited by:

    1. Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2023. "Doubts about the model and optimal policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    2. Jørgensen, Peter Lihn, 2023. "The global savings glut and the housing boom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Thore Kockerols & Erling Motzfeldt Kravik & Yasin Mimir, 2021. "Leaning against persistent financial cycles with occasional crises," Working Paper 2021/11, Norges Bank.
    4. Charles Ka Yui LEUNG, 2022. "Housing and Macroeconomics," ISER Discussion Paper 1197, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    5. Buch, Claudia M. & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2022. "Banking deregulation, macroeconomic dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Klaus Adam & Oliver Pfäuti & Timo Reinelt, 2020. "Falling Natural Rates, Rising Housing Volatility and the Optimal Inflation Target," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_235, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    7. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.
    8. Yasutaka Ogawa & Jiro Yoshida, 2024. "Aging, Housing, and Macroeconomic Inefficiency," IMES Discussion Paper Series 24-E-04, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Robustly optimal policy; Belief distortions; New Keynesian model; Housing prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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