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The informational content of prices when policy makers react to financial markets

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  • Siemroth, Christoph

Abstract

When can policy makers use policy-relevant information from financial market prices and how does policy affect price informativeness? I analyze a novel setting with noise where a policy maker tries to infer information about a state variable from prices to improve policy decisions, and policy in turn affects asset values. I derive a necessary and sufficient condition for the possibility of information revelation in equilibrium, which might not be possible if the policy reaction to prices punishes traders for revealing their information. If the policy maker is uninformed, then policy objectives do not change price informativeness, but they do if the policy maker has independent information about the state. I also analyze policy maker transparency, and find that policy makers with objectives having a large impact on asset values should publish their information before trading to make prices more informative. In other cases, intransparency can be optimal.

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  • Siemroth, Christoph, 2019. "The informational content of prices when policy makers react to financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 240-274.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:179:y:2019:i:c:p:240-274
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2018.11.002
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    Cited by:

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    3. Liu, Xiao & Wang, Ziyu & Zhu, Minxing, 2024. "Asset prices’ responses to public information manipulation: The role of market feedback," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    4. Ding, Haina & Guembel, Alexander & Ozanne, Alessio, 2020. "Market Information in Banking Supervision: The Role of Stress Test Design," TSE Working Papers 20-1144, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Jordi Caballé & Ariadna Dumitrescu, 2016. "Disclosure of Corporate Tax Reports, Tax Enforcement, and Insider Trading," Working Papers 911, Barcelona School of Economics.
    6. Ahrash Dianat & Christoph Siemroth, 2021. "Improving decisions with market information: an experiment on corporate prediction markets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 143-176, March.
    7. Christoph Siemroth, 2021. "When Can Decision Makers Learn from Financial Market Prices?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1523-1552, September.
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    9. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "Rationality and anchoring of inflation expectations: An assessment from survey‐based and market‐based measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1027-1053, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric information; Central bank transparency; Financial markets; Policy risk; Price informativeness; Rational expectations equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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