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Behavioral aspects of arbitrageurs in timing games of bubbles and crashes

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  • Matsushima, Hitoshi

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the theoretical foundation that underlies the willingness of rational arbitrageurs to delay and reinforce the speculative attack. The key assumptions are that there is a small probability that arbitrageurs are behavioral and never time the market of their own accord and it is uncertain whether arbitrageurs are behavioral or rational. We model a stock market as a timing game, in which arbitrageurs compete to react quickest. We show that rational arbitrageurs are willing to ride the bubble for a long period. We also characterize symmetric Nash equilibria and show the sufficient condition for uniqueness.

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  • Matsushima, Hitoshi, 2013. "Behavioral aspects of arbitrageurs in timing games of bubbles and crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 858-870.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:148:y:2013:i:2:p:858-870
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2012.08.002
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    15. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2010. "Financing Harmful Bubbles," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-756, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fotini Economou & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Bartosz Gebka & Vasileios Kallinterakis, 2022. "Feedback trading: a review of theory and empirical evidence," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 429-476, February.
    2. Akiyama, Eizo & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Ishikawa, Ryuichiro, 2014. "How do experienced traders respond to inflows of inexperienced traders? An experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2018. "Bank Runs and Minimum Reciprocity," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1099, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2020. "Recurrent Preemption Games," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1143, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    5. Qin, Jie, 2015. "A model of regret, investor behavior, and market turbulence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 150-174.
    6. Berger, David & Turtle, Harry J., 2015. "Sentiment bubbles," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 59-74.
    7. Lin, Edward M.H. & Sun, Edward W. & Yu, Min-Teh, 2020. "Behavioral data-driven analysis with Bayesian method for risk management of financial services," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    8. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2012. "Role of Leverage in Bubbles and Crashes," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-859, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    9. Awaya, Yu & Iwasaki, Kohei & Watanabe, Makoto, 2022. "Rational bubbles and middlemen," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(4), November.
    10. Guo, Xu & McAleer, Michael & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Lixing, 2017. "A Bayesian approach to excess volatility, short-term underreaction and long-term overreaction during financial crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 346-358.
    11. Matsushima Hitoshi, 2020. "Timing Games with Irrational Types: Leverage-Driven Bubbles and Crash-Contingent Claims," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, January.
    12. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2018. "Timing Games with Irrational Types: Leverage-Driven Bubbles and Crash-Contingent Claims (Revised version of CARF-F-306)(Forthcoming in the B. E. Journal of Theoretical Economics.)," CARF F-Series CARF-F-439, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    13. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2010. "Financing Harmful Bubbles," KIER Working Papers 711, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    14. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2018. "Bank Runs and Minimum Reciprocity," CARF F-Series CARF-F-447, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    15. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2013. "Impact of Financial Regulation and Innovation on Bubbles and Crashes due to Limited Arbitrage: Awareness Heterogeneity," CARF F-Series CARF-F-306, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubbles and crashes; Timing games; Behavioral arbitrageurs; Reputation; Characterization; Uniqueness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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